My Election prediction

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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Re: My Election prediction

I wont predict But Im glad that Imran Khan has done one of the most awesome campaigns in history of Pakistan EVER :ik:

Now its upto our people will they cast vote or vote their caste

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Re: My Election prediction

in all fairness, about a month ago all major analysts were giving 10-20 seats to PTI. About two weeks ago since the hurricane campaign they shifted to 50.. now they are ranging from 20-100. Such is the the unpredictability factor of PTI :)

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Re: My Election prediction

This is not a math test its a different kind of test where passion has funny way of trumping logic.

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Re: My Election prediction

A prediction of 20-100 is really funny. It's like saying 1-272 :) The problem for them is that either they do not want to read out the groundswell, or they deliberately want to underrate PTI's prospects.

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Re: My Election prediction

:omg:

:lifey:

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Re: My Election prediction

:)
Well, I am fine and I believe my assessment still stands.

Obviously, I did not looked at each constituency to assess situations but looked at the strength of parties and type of candidate parties are expected to put in. It is same with most assessments. For instance, if I would ask anyone who believe PPP would win most interior NA seats to name their candidates on each constituency and why they think that particular candidate would win, none would be able to answer other than that PPP own votes bank in interior Sindh constituencies are enough to make PPP candidates win the election (even though opposition party candidates would be electable too, but their party votes are not enough to get them through).

In most Pakistani constituencies an electable candidate gets two types of votes. One is candidate own votes and other is party votes. In constituencies where electable wins, if party is not going to put in electable, they would lose, thus all parties put electable. For instance … if electable in a particular Punjab constituency is ‘Jatt’, then no Party is going to expect a win putting ‘Butt’ there … so all will have their candidates an electable ‘Jatt’ and then candidate votes plus party votes would decide the result :).

If you would read my earlier posts, I did mention that most constituencies PMLQ and PPP wins consist of electable who can win regardless of party (Party votes are an addition that make them win against strong opposing candidate with weaker party in their constituency).

So, in my opinion, whoever PMLQ is going to put as candidate (obviously electable candidate) in constituencies where electable wins, added party votes to that electable would be enough for the person to win seat, and I believe PMLQ party votes are enough for them to get around 40 seats all over Pakistan (especially Punjab, but in Sindh, Baluchistan and KPK too).

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Re: My Election prediction

inshahallah ppl will surprize them :ik:

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Re: My Election prediction

My assessment was before BeNazir protruded her head to become a 'pot shot' for terrorist … and then PPP start blaming PMLQ and Musharraf for her death (it is just like anyone blaming Zardari for the death of Salman Taseer) and then PPP joining hands with PMLN against PMLQ. So obviously result of election came quite different … even then PPP on wave of BeNazir death got only 2 million votes more than PMLQ and PMLN with support of JI and PTI voters got 1.5 million votes less than PMLQ. Even in Punjab, though PMLQ did not get most seats they got most votes and that also after many of their candidates contested as Independent.

Just imagine, if terrorist kill Nawaz Shareef and PMLN starts blaming PTI for that killing, calling PTI as Qatil party, and they continue their propaganda for ~ 2 months before election, with such vigour and media help that people start believing that PTI must have killed Nawaz Shareef, and then PMLN join hands with PPP and PMLQ to contest election against PTI, then what would happen? … I doubt in such situation PTI would get many seats.

So don’t blame my assessment but blame change in situation after my assessment. It is same today, as I believe PTI may get more seats after Imran accident then before Imran accident. If (khuda-na-Khwasta) Imran had died and blame would have gone on PMLN, than PMLN would have got wiped out in election … at least PMLQ still got 8.2 million votes and number of seats.

Even then I am not saying that my assessment is divine and has to be accurate, as it is only assessment, results could be entirely different even if new situation do not arise ... though in politics new situations and alliances can happen in hours and there is still 3 days to go before election.

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Re: My Election prediction

Obviously, after Faisal Salah Hayat and some others not contesting election on PMLQ ticket, number of PMLQ candidates who could win election has to be lower. According to my last assessment, PMLQ could take 26 seats from Punjab. Probably, if one takes into account some strong candidates contesting election as independent, PMLQ might take 22 or 23. Actually, if APML (Musharraf party) was contesting election, then they would have got lower seats.

Anyhow, you asked me about candidates who are contesting on PMLQ ticket. There are many candidates contesting outside Punjab but in Punjab are contesting on 28 NA seats. PMLQ made alliance with PPP, thus wherever PMLQ is contesting election they consider themselves strong, and could win on their own or with the help of PPP (similarly PPP might win some seats with help of PMLQ).

Here are 28 Punjab NA constituencies where PMLQ are contesting election.

NA 50 to NA 197 (147 constituencies of Punjab):

NA 52: Muhammad Basharat Raja
NA 61: Ch. Pervez Elahi
NA 62: Ch. Farrukh Altaf
NA 63: Fawad Ahmad
NA 65: GHIAS AHMAD MELA
NA 67: CH.ANWAR ALI CHEEMA
NA 77: Zaheer ud Din
NA 80: Rana Asif Touseef
NA 97: Chaudhry Muhammad Anwar Bhinder
NA 101: Ch Sajid Hussain Chatha
NA 104: Muhammad Ali Sajad Chatha
NA 105: Ch. Pervaiz Ellahi
NA 107: Rehman Naseer
NA 113: Ali Asjad Malhi
NA 114: CH MAQSOOD AHMAD SULEHRIA
NA 131: Muhtarma Amna Zulfiqar Dhillon.
NA 134: Khurram Munawar Manaj
NA 136: Shahid Manzoor Gill
NA 140: Azeem ud Din Zahid
NA 142: Sardar Talib Hassan Nakai
NA 143: RAI MUHAMMAD ASLAM
NA 157: Hamid Yaar Hiraf
NA 163: MALIK NAUMAN AHMAD
NA 164: MUHAMMAD SHAH KHAGGA
NA 166: RAJA TALIA SAEED
NA 172: Sardar Maqsood Khan Leghari
NA 186: Ch.Tariq Bashir Cheema
NA 187: Ch.Tariq Bashir Cheema

Personally, I am no fan of PMLQ, still, I think PMLQ could win most of above constituencies, if not all.

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Re: My Election prediction

**

Herald exclusive: PML-N, PTI are neck and neck**

A very high 95.1 per cent of the 1285 poll respondents say they are registered to vote and 25.68 per cent of these registered respondents say they intend to vote for Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), 24.98 per cent of them say their vote will go to Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) and another 17.74 per cent want to vote for Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

Full Report

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Re: My Election prediction

Just read the first post.

No way PPP is taking away 71 seats.

More realistic probably is N taking 70, Pti 60 and PPP 45ish.

Hopefully I am talking nonsense and PTI will clean sweep!

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Re: My Election prediction

Turnout is key.

High turnout and PTI will take the most seats. Anything lower and not a chance

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yes you talking non sense :D :p

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Oh no you’ve been turned too :nahi:

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Re: My Election prediction

Insha Allah, :)

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Re: My Election prediction

I was looking for my chance , finally got it :aisha:

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Re: My Election prediction

Let's have a little fun here.. and have a bet. If PMLQ wins 10 or more seats I will never make election predictions in my life.. and if PMLQ wins less than 10 seats from these 28.. you will never make election predictions in your life.

P.S. We all remember your election predictions in 2008.. :)

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Re: My Election prediction

^^ Yaar yay baar baar election predictions 2008 ka zikar ho raha hay.

Can you post the link to the related thread?

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Re: My Election prediction

As much as I hate all these goons, even though the real competition is between PML-N and PTI, I think PML-N will be able to make the govt.

PPP has no chance wutsoever unless you see a huge discrepancy from the evil-minded his-highness Zardari.

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Re: My Election prediction

I hope PTI gets over 100 seats as then it will have a simple majority. Otherwise the way things are going we could have a hung parliament which is not a good option at the moment.