My Election prediction

Re: My Election prediction

Why are you so upset with my prediction? I never asked you to come out of your illusion and accept my assessment, have I? :) ... Fact is that, I would be surprised myself if my assessment would be accurate on spot ;)

[Just imagine, every time Imran's battered face comes on TV from hospital, PTI is gaining a seat and making position of other parties, especially PMLN weaker in Punjab]

One thing about prediction is that there is always chance for it to go off the mark (at least for Muslims, though for Hindus they believe on prediction as if it is always divine). :)

Anyhow, be assured that the biggest party of thugs, thieves and Liars, PMLN is very unlikely to make next government from Islamabad (unless they rig the election in big way). :)

And your expectation from one of your post (conversation with your son) that if PMLN would come they would sort load shedding problem and other problems of Punjab than that hope is just like hoping Pakistan finding oil more than Iran or Saudi Arabia. PMLN is not party of Angels, or even honest humans, but PMLN is party of devils, thugs and liars, so expecting anything from them is illusion of Shaikh-chulli.

Shareef thugs all the time make Sindh target, but Shareef Thugs ruled Punjab 20 out of last 28 years by giving 'people in Punjab' promises of lies and making them live on wet dreams, still situation of Punjab is such that every year people of Punjab move to Sindh (also to Baluchistan and KPK) for jobs and opportunities. If governance of Punjab was so good, then instead of people from Punjab moving to Sindh for jobs and opportunities, people of Sindh would have started going to Punjab for jobs and opportunities ... but then Shareef Thugs propaganda and those who believe their lies never make sense.

Just imagine, 18[SUP]th[/SUP] constitutional amendment got passed in April 2010 (3 years from now). 7[SUP]th[/SUP] NFC award got through in 2010. Since April 2010, energy sector is provincial matter. So, if Shareef thugs were sincere about sorting of load sheading, then they would have got it done by now, but load shedding situation is getting worse in Punjab.

As for money, since 18th amendment and new NFC awards to provinces, even though federal government still pays for defence and national debt servicing, Punjab government have more money than Federal government.

Well, Thief Shahbaz and Punjab government got ~ Rs 1,000,000 million from Islamabad in last 2 years (~Rs 2,000,000 million in last 5 years) and over that money, Punjab government borrowed and raised local taxes that come to much more than what Punjab gets from Federation.

I believe, government of Thug Shahbaz got ~ Rs 10,000,000 million in last 5 years (from Islamabad, local taxes and borrowing), that comes to on average of around Rs 850,000 (~ Rs 8.5 lac) per family in Punjab. If Shareef Thugs wanted to, they could have quadrupled that money (maybe more than quadrupled) by introducing tax on agricultural income, and reducing corruption (or at least not doing corruption and stealing themselves). So, if Thug Shahbaz and his Brother Nawaz were honest, they had enough resources to sort out all Punjab problems including load sheading … but then, that would have been expecting miracle from devils. :).

Re: My Election prediction

^Bhag gya

Re: My Election prediction

^^ Yaar aap bar bar jin predictions ka zikar kar rahey ho, us thread ka link to post karo..

Re: My Election prediction

ay lo: http://www.paklinks.com/gs/pakistan-affairs/277015-gupshup-national-assembly-mock-election-poll.html

Re: My Election prediction

Who remembers Aalsi? :hehe: He disappeared as soon as Musharraf did.

Are we to see a repeat of that, should PTI win? :help:

Re: My Election prediction

Yaar give the guy some credit.

He predicted PML-F seats correctly… 4 that is … :wink:

Re: My Election prediction

Or it can be other way round. If IK loses this elections miserably, lets see who remain on the promotion of IK and his permanent lotay.

Re: My Election prediction

Have a strong heart. It was a general statement.

Re: My Election prediction

Well, my prediction on 12[SUP]th[/SUP] Feb 2008 (about 2 weeks before election) was … Post 38 on the thread.

http://www.paklinks.com/gs/pakistan-affairs/277015-gupshup-national-assembly-mock-election-poll-3.html#post5664513

PML(Q) = 80 to 90
PML(F) = 3 to 5
NA = 8 to 10
MQM = 19 to 22
PPP (Sherpao) = 2

PPP = 62 to 72
PML(N) = 18 to 23

MMA = 20 to 25
ANP = 8 to 10

Minor parties = 5
Ind = 25 to 35

But then, just before election Zardari came out against PMLQ in big way, made alliance with PMLN against PMLQ in Punjab, and ANP in KPK. JI and TI declared boycott of election that helped PMLN. 2008 was probably first time when tactical voting happened in Pakistan in big way, especially in Punjab (PPP voters voting PMLN). Thus lot changed on ground that affected the result. Later NA (National Alliance) also fizzled out, many joining PPP.

Anyhow, I was not expecting that PPP alliance with PMLN would increase PMLN seats out of proportion and would hammer PMLQ a lot, though that happened and even though PMLQ got much more votes than PMLN in Punjab, they ended up with lesser seats.

Here is my prediction (2008 election) and actual result:

[TABLE=“width: 726, align: left”]

Parties

My prediction
(12[SUP]TH[/SUP] Feb 2008)

Actual result
(At time Assembly dissolved 2013)

Difference

Comments

PMLQ

80 o 90

38

  • 42

Actually PMLQ got more seats, but lost out because many of their candidates contested as independent, and later joined other parties (especially in baluchistan).

PMLF

3 to 5

4

On spot

NA

8 to 10

MQM

19 to 22

19

On spot

PPP (Sh-p)

2

1

PPP

62 to 72

91

  • 19

Gained due to NA in Sindh fizzling out, and alliance with PMLN in Punjab

PMLN

18 to 23

69

  • 46

Gained a lot due to their alliance with PPP, and Findus’ anti-Musharraf votes in Punjab. They also gained due to JI and TI boycott

MMA

20 to 25

7

  • 13

Lost ground due to JI boycott and surge in anti-Taliban feelings

ANP

8 to 10

10

On spot

Minor parties

5

2

Squeezed out due to various alliances.

Ind

25 to 35

31

On spot

One can see that major difference came due to PPP openly made alliance with PMLN that pushed PMLQ out and increased both PPP and PMLN seats.

Actually in KPK, MMA lost again due to PPP alliance with ANP and PMLN (where PPP got most votes, though lesser seats compared to ANP … PPP got 9 seats from KPK and ANP got 10). Obviously PMLN benefitted most in Punjab because of alliance with PPP, as they were contesting most in Punjab where they had challenge from PMLQ, but when PPP started giving PMLN support then PMLN gained at the expense of PMLQ.

So, my analysis was not completely off the mark, other than that 12 days before election I did not realised the effect of alliance between PPP and PMLN in Punjab and PPP and ANP in KPK, that well.

Re: My Election prediction

Does today's show of turnout in ISB change your prediction at all? Just curious. Please keep updating and fine-tuning the expectation till last minute. It would be interesting to see how close you and other friends come to the actual results.

Re: My Election prediction

Thanks. :slight_smile:

Imran speeches from hospital with battered face and emotional appeal is surely going to increase PTI vote bank and could win Imran number of seats. This could happen in two ways, that is, voters who do not normally vote coming out to vote PTI, and many voters from other parties voting for PTI. My new assessment is:

[TABLE=“width: 706”]

My expected result 3 (election 2013) 10[SUP]th[/SUP] May

Party
I-bad
KPK
Punjab
Sindh
Baluchstan
FATA
Total

PPP
0
6
27
27
4

64

PTI
2
7
47
0
0

56

PMLN
0
2
36
0
0

38

PMLQ
0
4
21
3
2

30

MQM
0
0
0
21
0

21

ANP
0
7
0
0
0

7

PMLF
0
0
1
5
0

6

JUI +
0
4
0
0
2

6

PML-A
0
0
0
3
0

3

JI
0
2
0
0
0

2

BNP
0
0
0
0
1

1

PPP-S
0
1
0
0
0

1

NPP
0
0
0
1
0

1

IND
0
2
16
1
5
12
36

Total
2
35
148
61
14
12
272

Where PML-A = People’s Muslim league (Arbab Ghulam Raheem’s party).

This assessment could change with time, but I believe this could be final tally as far as I am concerned, before election. Obviously, actual election result could be much different than what I have assessed.:slight_smile:

Re: My Election prediction

^ good effort, regardless of which party wins. It's difficult to predict anything in Pakistan, being on ground still till the last minute you can't be sure. It seems as if PPP would lose a lot of seats (both in punjab and kp) where as PMLNs final tally would be decided by PTI. If the voting ratio increases expect many surprises. i still think you have given 35 seats extra to PPP/pmlq combo which would be divided into PMLN and PTI.

Re: My Election prediction

Upset.. Naah..

Amused... yeah..

Saleem bhai.. I just wanted to have some fun.. Aap nay shurt hi nahi lagayie..

Itne lambi taqreer jhar di..

Re: My Election prediction

Me no gambler :).

Re: My Election prediction

I could be wrong and what you think could be right. Let wait and see. :)

Anyhow, according to my assessment, it would not surprise me if PPP and PMLQ would get more seats than I mentioned, but it would surprise me if they get lesser seats.

Reason is that, they have not done much public campaigning that one could asses them properly, and thus my assessment is based on their performance, my basic understanding of Pakistani election, type of voters party attract, and voters psyche. But in my assessment, I have left out many things that could substantially increase their vote and seats.

Re: My Election prediction

What about Karachi as you predict nil from Sindh - I think at least 4 seats from Karachi are going to PTI now!

Re: My Election prediction

I think ppp ko sirf Sindh mei seat milaygi aur shid ek do idher udher se not more than 40.

Re: My Election prediction

Kash aaisa hi ho.. If this happens.. I will have no doubt about a Naya Pakistan..

Re: My Election prediction

Just saw this prediction by Batima Bhutto.

[quote]
Fatima Bhutto
As Election Campaign comes to an end, let's find out the outcome of the elections...

Final prediction Election 2013 Seats : PTI 90, PML-N 75 , PPP 45, PML-Q 40, MQM 35 , ANP 10 ,PML-F 12, JUI-F 14, JI 9, Independent 12 = 342

Note: After yesterday's Jalsa at D-Chowk, PTI may cross 3 figure mark after taking seats from PML N, PPP and JI.

Government: PTI + MQM + PML-Q + PML-F + JUI-F = 186
Opposition: PML-N + PPP + ANP + JI = 144

Prime Minister: Imran Khan
CM Sindh : MQM
CM Punjab : PML-N
CM KPK: PTI
CM Baluchistan : PTI

Imran Khan will have to play a role for a change, like Musharraf did in 2002.

God Bless you PTI and MQM for a Change in the larger interest of the Country.

Vote 4 Right ...!!!!

God Bless Pakistan
[/quote]

Re: My Election prediction

If PTI crosses 100 I'd be happy chappy.