Re: My Election prediction
....I believe, establishment wanted PPP to win the election and make government with PMLQ as junior partner, ....
It would be very interesting to get AP uncle's view on this one. :)
Re: My Election prediction
I think PMLQ still have votes in Sindh, but With Arbab Rahim leaving PMLQ, I do not even know who is managing their affairs in Sindh, and thus could not really say where they could win seats.
Actually, most seats in interior Sindh belong to Vaderas controlling the area. Party matters but very little. So, for PMLQ or any party to win seats they have to get strong candidates rather win heart and mind of voters. If PMLQ or any party do not have strong candidates, then there is little chance for them to win seats.
As for cities where heart and mind matters, PPP and MQM has supports in most constituencies, leaving very little or no space for other parties.
Just a question.. What is PMLQ?
Is it Musharraf? Or is it Chaudhry Shujaat? Or someone else?
The last time I checked Musharraf formed his APDM.. has boycotted the election and we will never know how popular he is in this election.
Their last parliamentary leader Faisal Saleh is contesting election as an independent.. a vast majority of PMLQ parliamentarians have gone for greener pastures.. with other more electable parties. What is left of PMLQ is mostly Chaudry Shujaat group which is expected to win around 5 seats in total including Ch. Pervaiz Elahi and his brother Ch. Wajahat. Elsewhere in the country I don't see a vote bank for them.
Probably you will be able to show me some other support which I am not able to see..
Re: My Election prediction
Just a question.. What is PMLQ? Is it Musharraf? Or is it Chaudhry Shujaat? Or someone else? The last time I checked Musharraf formed his APDM.. has boycotted the election and we will never know how popular he is in this election. Their last parliamentary leader Faisal Saleh is contesting election as an independent.. a vast majority of PMLQ parliamentarians have gone for greener pastures.. with other more electable parties. What is left of PMLQ is mostly Chaudry Shujaat group which is expected to win around 5 seats in total including Ch. Pervaiz Elahi and his brother Ch. Wajahat. Elsewhere in the country I don't see a vote bank for them.
Probably you will be able to show me some other support which I am not able to see..
Please read post 95 ... point 7 where I did mention that PMLQ and Musharraf party APML are two different parties.
Well, you think that PMLQ is now an irrelevant party and may win at most 5 seats. I think differently. You do not have to agree with my assessment. I could be wrong, but I believe PMLQ would get reasonable number of seats in this election. So let wait and see. Hope is that election would happen on 11 May and result would be out by 12 May.
Re: My Election prediction
Please read post 95 ... point 7 where I did mention that PMLQ and Musharraf party APML are two different parties.
Well, you think that PMLQ is now an irrelevant party and may win at most 5 seats. I think differently. You do not have to agree with my assessment. I could be wrong, but I believe PMLQ would get reasonable number of seats in this election. So let wait and see. Hope is that election would happen on 11 May and result would be out by 12 May.
I am not concerned how many seats they will win.. I can make my own assessment and I am living in Punjab heartland. I just want to know who is PMLQ? Is it the same PMLQ in your mind which contested 2008 election.. Musharraf+Shujaat+Faisal Saleh+Shaikh Waqas+Danyaal Aziz+Manzoor Wattoo+Khurshid Kasuri+Jahangir Tareen+Ahmad Mehmood+Sikandar Bosan+Hamid Yar Hiraj+Awais Leghari+Ijaz ul Haq+Gohar Ayub+++++++ or something else?
If it's the 2008 PMLQ.. I think you have not updated your information.. Apart from Chaudry Shujaat group.. 95% of the people have already left that 2008 PMLQ..
Re: My Election prediction
PPP is national party & has presence in every region of the country. Also, I think BB's income support program is going to help PPP with poor voters.
@Saleem, what makes you think that PMLQ will get that many seats w/o support/rigging from the establishment?
but still I don't think so k ppp will get more than 50 seats
Re: My Election prediction
PMLQ is likely to win as many seats as a knight riding a bicycle can subdue his opponents
Re: My Election prediction
^^ Well do not underestimate the naivity of our voters. Especially local compulsions and Q's seat adjustment with PPP.
Even though I pray I am proven wrong (for giving so many), looks like they are going to grab as many as 20-25.
Re: My Election prediction
Clean sweep for PTI! Insha Allah
Re: My Election prediction
I am not concerned how many seats they will win.. I can make my own assessment and I am living in Punjab heartland. I just want to know who is PMLQ? Is it the same PMLQ in your mind which contested 2008 election.. Musharraf+Shujaat+Faisal Saleh+Shaikh Waqas+Danyaal Aziz+Manzoor Wattoo+Khurshid Kasuri+Jahangir Tareen+Ahmad Mehmood+Sikandar Bosan+Hamid Yar Hiraj+Awais Leghari+Ijaz ul Haq+Gohar Ayub+++++++ or something else? If it's the 2008 PMLQ.. I think you have not updated your information.. Apart from Chaudry Shujaat group.. 95% of the people have already left that 2008 PMLQ..
Yes, I am talking about PML whose President is Ch Shujaat and is known as PMLQ.
You are right that many have left PML but still they are contesting election from many constituencies and have election adjustment with PPP and some other political parties.
Obviously, many names in the list you mentioned are no more in PML and as far as Musharraf was concerned, he was never part of PML officially nor held any post in PML.
On the other hand, you are right that I did not knew of many who left PMLQ, like Arbab Rahim and Faisal Saleh Hayat ... and that means, much lower seats for PMLQ then I mentioned. But nevertheless, if one counts those PMLQ members who have not joined another party and are contesting election as independent or created their own party to contest election, then probably figure I gave could be right.
Re: My Election prediction
Yes, I am talking about PML whose President is Ch Shujaat and is known as PMLQ.
You are right that many have left PML but still they are contesting election from many constituencies and have election adjustment with PPP and some other political parties.
Obviously, many names in the list you mentioned are no more in PML and as far as Musharraf was concerned, he was never part of PML officially nor held any post in PML.
On the other hand, you are right that I did not knew of many who left PMLQ, like Arbab Rahim and Faisal Saleh Hayat ... and that means, much lower seats for PMLQ then I mentioned. But nevertheless, if one counts those PMLQ members who have not joined another party and are contesting election as independent or created their own party to contest election, then probably figure I gave could be right.
bhai did you take your medicine before posting your predictions? you shd not skip medicine. jazak allah
Re: My Election prediction
not going to put my neck out and predict because these are the most unpredictable elections in recent memory. Not in pakistan but anywhere in the world.
I am just in awe of an incredible and heroic election campaign by PTI & IK. Hats off to IK for being a superman and do jalsas all over the country. (60+ in 10 days) This is an astonishing number.
Like it or not; Its PTI who has put life in these elections otherwise we were going for a stale turn by turn elections like before. And this is what has stopped even the most astute analysts from making any concrete predictions because even they dont know what kind of turn out they should expect and unthinkable could happen if turn out exceeds the normalcy.
Pragmatic analysis would be that a PMLN + PPP government after elections.
Re: My Election prediction
Oh hell with guesses man, only Allah knows what is going to happen.
Since its all about throwing numbers, here are mine:
PTI = 136
PML-N = 50
PPP = 40
others = 46
Absolute majority for PTI....MojaaN karo saarey, :)
Re: My Election prediction
Well, well OP made some predictions in 2008 as well and we know how accurate those were.
Re: My Election prediction
^^ Oh bhai jaan, no body is a Kaamil Najoomi here. Guess OP is just having some time pass.
Aap bhi phenko apnay numbers...
Re: My Election prediction
Analysts still giving comfortable majority to Noon League, followed by PPP with PTI at a good distance from the two parties. They are not willing to give any noticeable chunk to PTI even in KPK.
Re: My Election prediction
Kiya matlab, aap mujhay analyst nahi samajhtay? 
Re: My Election prediction
Well, well OP made some predictions in 2008 as well and we know how accurate those were.
2008 was easy to predict with sympathy wind blowing in favour of the PPP. 2013 is a different story.
Re: My Election prediction
2008 was easy to predict with sympathy wind blowing in favour of the PPP. 2013 is a different story.
And yet he was way off mark. Lets face it, OP calls his wishes predictions.
Re: My Election prediction
What you have suggested is what people want to see. But we live in a matchless haven of electables where people’s will may not reflect through their votes. Have you ever wondered why it is so easy and safe to predict poll results in Pakistan? Just find out the most favourite camp of the electables and you are good to announce the verdict even before the first ballot is cast. This is the promised Land of the Pure.
Re: My Election prediction
What you have suggested is what people want to see. But we live in a matchless haven of electables where people's will may not reflect through their votes. Have you ever wondered why it is so easy and safe to predict poll results in Pakistan? Just find out the most favourite camp of the electables and you are good to announce the verdict even before the first ballot is cast. This is the promised Land of the Pure.
Yaar tension not... Chill Mahol, tay Mitthay Chol.
Go to the battlefield with "half full" attitude.
Allah khair karey ga, jo hona hay wo to hona hi hay,