AMAT 10.38 yield 3.52. 12.92Up 24.9%
Siemens 83.4 yield 4.7% 100.6 up 21%
TEVA 38.56 3.1% 38.2 down 1%
NOVARTIS 51.5 4.84% 72.2 up 40.7%
ABB 15.9. 4.4% yld. 21.4 up 34.6%
Up 24% on average with div yield of 4.1%
1542 up 16.6% from 1321 level when these stocks mentioned. Div yld 2%
In 10.5 months our portfolio beats market by 7.4% with 2.1% greater yield.
Though got to acknowledge market gained ground - about 1.5% on our portfolio in one month. TEVA dropped. Siemens also took a hit. Picked up some more TEVA at around this level. And sold NVS abt a week ago around this price. So will freeze nvs and Abb.
^ the comparison is with S&P 500. For example in the last post, " 1689.4 up 27.9% from 1321 level when these stocks mentioned. Div yld 2%" these are s&p500 numbers.
This was an experiment. I picked (rather my staff picked) 5 undervalued stocks and compared performance wrt market. Only one is us stock. Si is German. Teva Israel. Abb Swiss I think. Nvs Swiss I think. All trade in us (adr).
The ptoe ratio would change with time. When I picked them I had done this analysis. For cyclicalnstocks such as amat ptoe is almost meaningless.
Saw both stocks go down today. Google at stratospheric levels. Had sold microshaft at 30. Watched it go to 36! Today it dropped 10% to what 31?Will pick up at < 23.
Intc also has been going down. At 22.9. Didn't pull the sell trigger when it reached 26. No matter. If it reaches 18-20 will down will buy more.
I agree with you. In post 1, I have stated these are unfairly beaten down stocks with rock solid balance sheets. In post 5 I state
" These are not recommendations to buy. Just what I consider undervalued stocks.
Never take anyones word - do ur own homework."
This thread purpose was not to do in depth analysis for stocks. I have created multiple threads in the past on this topic. The scope here was to identify clearly undervalued stocks. For cyclical stocks this can occur when E is 0 or negative. That is p to e is infinity! On the other hand when earnings is at peak p to e can be misleadingly low ( Apple at 700 plus comes to mind). So for amat I have no clue what the p to e was when I picked it. Price to cash flow price to 10 yr Aggy earnings price to revenue are some metrics. In facr price to 10 yr Avgy earnings can be used for most.
The experiment purpose was to show you cant go wrong picking stocks with solid balance sheet high dividends reasonable business low expectations. On the other hand You can burn ur fingers doing opposite.
Google at current price is dangerous, no matter its stated growth rate for example. As Buffett says you know a bargain when you see it ( paraphrasing here).
Despite your enthusiasm for stocks and investing I don't think that you really know much about stocks. You don't even seem to know why these stocks are undervalued, assuming that they are undervalued in the first place. If you state that they have solid balance sheets then should be able to mention the NAV of each stock.
Did I say they are undervalued? I said they were undervalued when I picked them. So far this group of stocks has handily beaten the market. The scope of this thread is not to provide details of the balance sheet etc. I did my due diligence when I picked them.
Spare me the ngativity. I recall you were bullish on apple when it was at 580 approx. Since then it is down 25 to 30% while market is up 25% in same time span.
I enjoy what I do here. You want to add something constructive, be my guest.
I went back to the "is Apple overvalued" thread. On. Nov 1 2012 you stated Apple was cheap. Famous last words. Your over emphasis on P to E led you to this conclusion. When tech stocks are peak earnings they appear cheap. But are lethal to ones health.
Apple was circa 610 on Nov 1 2012. Since then it shot down to 385 ( loss of 35% !!). Now at 425 - loss of 30% !! While market up significantly. About 25%. So your call has underprrformed the market by 50 to 55%. So a little humility is in order. I do recall mentioning apple was overvalued.
I claim to be no expert. More power to you if you consider yourself an expert - in spite of your track record.
This thread is a real time experiment. Shows why undervalued stocks pose less risk.
The title of this thread is under (or fairly) valued stocks. So when you come up with a stock that you think is undervalued you need to justify it to us why and how it is undervalued (you need to mention p/e and or NAV), and if you are just doing it for yourself and not for other readers then I think that you can do it on a word document and not post here.
As far as Apple is concerned I stated that I am no expert on the company and I thought that its future was uncertain however it should perform satisfactorily in the short term and it was fairly priced. I still stand by my words, however if the price of the stock has gone even lower since my comments then it does not mean that my comment was incorrect. I did mention that technology stocks tend to be more unstable in terms of price, and personally I would avoid them. I did not recommend for anyone to buy the stock but just commented on it as it was your favourite stock at the time.
Mods may change the title to "Real time experiment of basket of stocks that have potential to beat the market".
This thread is for those who are interested in following the performance of said basket of stocks. You are welcome to follow it. Or not.
By the way, you still have not grasped the concept of peak earnings when it comes to tech stocks. I tried. Oh well.
As for balance sheet, I use debt to equity ratio. Debt to assets ratio.
I assume by NAV you mean book value. Price to book may be Used. But it is my limited understanding that book value is complicated. Goodwill is hard to wrap ones hands around. In certain industries I hear book value is key. I think insurance?
You clearly know more about investing than I do. Not sure I understand why you would want me not post this as a thread.
I always have a disclaimer that folks need to do own homework.
Anyway I have quoted your posts on Ocr 20 Nov 1 and Jan 8 in the apple thread. While you did state you had little info on apple on Oct 20, you did go on to make bullish calls. All of them wrong. It is ok to be wrong. Just got to admit to oneself. Is all.
. If you state that they have solid balance sheets then should be able to mention the NAV of each stock.
This sentence is puzzling, to say the least. How did you arrive at the conclusion that by stating the NAV of each stock, one can gauge the strength of the balance sheet of each stock?
For example, consider companies A B and C with NAV of $10 billion $20 billion and $30 billion respectively. What exactly can one conclude about each company's balance sheet?
On the other hand, if the market cap of the 3 companies was $30 billion, you would now be able to calculate the price to book value of each company.
A: 30/10 or 3
B: 30/20 or 1.5
C: 30/30 or 1.
So by this P/B metric C is most undervalued.
Now NAV ( or equity) can be used to assess balance sheet. Total debt to equity ratio is one metric. Total NET debt to equity ratio another. Where net debt is debt - cash or cash equivalent.
Coincidentally today's Wsj talked about P/Nav for chinese banks to be 0.99. While us banks trade at 1.2 times book value.
Moving on. Constructive suggestions and participation always welcome. We are here to learn and share. Its all good.
