Re: under or fairly valued stocks
Forgot to decrease our div by 0.2%. To account for sale of 2 stocks. So our outperformance is 6.3%
Dear alert reader - you spotted that in record time. We are and remain humbled.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
Our portfolio up 32.1% with div 4.1
Mkt up 27.6 div 2
So up 6.5% over market in 14.5 months. Lead stabilized. Time will tell.
I want to stress repeatedly this is a FUN realtime experiment. ( real money is deployed, but for the sake of readers this is an experiment).
For most, including myself, dollar cost averaging in index funds with asset allocation and rebalancing would beat 80% of ALL investors. I will take those odds.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
When are you going to post new wave of stocks in brand new portfolio. I am interested to know what is undervalued in this post summer before Thanksgiving season. Market has rallied in recent months so much that nothing seems be attractive.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
What do we think about the sprint?
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
When are you going to post new wave of stocks in brand new portfolio. I am interested to know what is undervalued in this post summer before Thanksgiving season. Market has rallied in recent months so much that nothing seems be attractive.
He is banned, don't know why, the short term-devaluation is just that 'short term'.
What do we think about the sprint?
I am no Southie but from what I know Sprint is going to go up.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
Man, why does southie keep getting banned. This thread hinges upon him being unbanned =(
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
The basket of stocks ( with NVS and ABB) frozen due to sale is up 40.95%. S&P500 up 36.25%. Accounting for sale our stock mix dividend 3%. Market 2%.
So net gain over market 4.6% + 1% or 5.6%
Considering market has been on a tear and we sold NVS and ABB a while back, we will take this.
Since this thread started, the basket of stocks have not flagged the market.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
The market was up. Again.
It should be noted that during my extended leave, I had sold SI at 104. And a bulk of AMAT at 17.9. Since SI now at 127, it made performance of above basket better than reality.
Accounting for these sales,
Cap gains 36.8%. Div 3%
Mkt Cap gains 37.8%. Div 2%.
So as of now, a TIE.
Lesson learnt ( at least for me - Ms. Scherbatsky, you may be interested to know this result)
Very difficult yo beat the market. For most of us, dollar cost averaging into a low cost Index Fund would be the WISE choice.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
Just checked. The SI sale was for 119.4. So that makes cap gains of 40/45%. 2.7% over market. And 1% div yld greater. So 3.7% better than market.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
Rechcked. Had sold half of AMAT. Not bulk of it. So am going to treat AMAT as still in our portfolio.
With that CAP GAINS 44.8%. yld adjusting for sale 3.3%
Market cap gains 39%. Yld 2%.
So 5.8 plus 1.3 or 7.1% over market.
Considering this market has skyrocketed AND we sold 3 out of 5 positions, we are quite satisfied.
This exercise, a real time experiment, has demonstrate the value of picking good stocks at reasonable prices.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
moar!
AMAT looks like a nice find.
what do you think of IRBT, SAM and UPS?
also if you buy an index fund, you don't have to do the hefty short term cap gain taxes you'd need to with individual stock sales while trying to meet the market performance. in fact, you don't even sell the index fund unless its d-day. so not even long term cap. gain taxes for a long time.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
What is moar?
Haven't heard of irbt wand Sam. Will analyze ups and 1st two.
Modi of my sales are long term. I sell short term IFF stock has skyrocketted too fast. With the type of sstock I target that rarely happens.
Most of funds are tied up in index funds. Goal of individual stock portfolio is NOT to beat market. BUT to provide a counter weight.
Snp500 is mktcap weighted. So iyer the stock price goes, iyengar its weightage. Hence I try to find UNDERVALUED stocks in sectors that have lagged mkt. Hence underrepresented. So while in Shir term may continue to lag. Long term should beat mkt.
Or at least provide insurance if mkt overvalued.
The pharmas two to 4 yrs sxago were undervalued. Do bought pfe lly mrk etc. Now the pundints love pharmacy. Not so attractive no more.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
Sorry too many I s in above post.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
The market has been on a tear. If it continues, our portfolio will havee its ash handed to it in an ash tray. For now, we are ahead 4.76% cap gains and 1% div. So comfortably ahead by 5.76%.
Considering 4 out of 5 stocks sold, we will take this lead.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
moar!
what do you think of IRBT, SAM and UPS?
Here is my 2 cents on UPS. Purely from numbers. Dont know much abt business model.
P 96.
82 to 105 52 wi range
3.8% yld
In 2000 was at 70. So hasn't mover much.
Debt 13b
cash 8
Fcf5
Debtt - cash - fcf = 0. So ok.
Underfunded pension oblation 11 billion. This makes me want to run away. Of course with interest rate creeping up NPV of this liability goes down. So you get some reduction in liability. Smoke ans mirrors.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
Income statement.
Net income jumped from 1.3 billion to 7 billion. 2012 to 2013. Why? Cost of revenue plummetted from 46 to 29 billion. More smoke and mirrors? Don't know. You need yo get a shovel and dig.
P to e is 22. Based on this low cost of revenue. Base on 2014 p to e is 20.7. Steep man. Apparently this is at lower end of its 10 yr range. Stock has always sold at premium to market.
No wonder it has gone nowhere in last 14 years. Not for me.
End 2 cents.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
Thanks queer. I hope you got a good price for abb. I know you wont buy without doing your homework - and are quite familiarcwith risks vs rewards.
Just wanted to caution folks to do their own homework.
Since this list ails being used as potential picks in the spirit of full disclosure I picked up abby at 16.05 si at 84.66 amatory at 10.46 (have some at slightly lower prices from before) havexa 11 pct loss in previous teva holdings and picked up novartis recently at 52 wi low.
My stock portfolio is biased towards dividend paying pharmacy. Recently lightened up on sal mart after huge run up. Have some citigroup and bank of America (90% loss in each!) So made my sharecof mistakes.
Reason to buy Siemens and abby was to get into industrialist at good price.
Core portfolio is index funds. Since sno500 overweights large caps to countercthis my individual stock portfolio weighted towards value stocks.
queer
Here is post 7 of this thread. Last para explains my logic of picking this portfolio or similar stocks. Yo provide a value bias. To counter the mkt cap weightedness of index.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
I knew this thread needed Soutie again :D
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
Thanks 09. Welcome to GS.
Re: under or fairly valued stocks
On a serious note, every so often I would like to repeat the following:
People go broke trading stocks if they don't know what they are doing. Especially when they buy on margin. Or short stocks. Or do other fancy stuff.
The ONLY free lunch is ASSET ALLOCATION. Then just buy LOW COST INDEX FUNDS.
Don't be a hero (euphemism for LISER). Do your own homework.
Have some close relatives who lost their shirt trading "shares" as they say back home. Threads such as these should always be taken with a pinch of salt.