Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
correct me if im wrong OG but wouldnt turning back oil tankers from Iran eventually result in a hike in oil prices in the states? how would the American public view that little gambit?
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Ravage, you have to read my statements carefully. I said *gasoline *tankers. Despite Iran swimming in crude, it has barely enough refining capacity to fuel 50% of it’s own internal gasoline consumption, and even less of other refined products such as diesel. Why? because Iran does not have the internal industry to build refineries, and companies that could build refineries either do not because of political instability, or sanctions on technology. Iran is a frikkin’ energy mess. Their nationally produced automobiles get horrible mileage, and have no pollution controls. Do a Google on “Iran Gasoline” and read up.
My proposal is to blockade gasoline going in, not oil going out. Iran *must *export oil, as it constitutes 50% of their entire economy. But yes, oil prices would spike during the conflict. Here is some further detail:
Gasoline Imports
Iran has imported refined products since 1982, and these imports have been increasing rapidly. Currently, gasoline costs less than 40 cents per gallon in Iran, far below international levels, contributing to a rapid (8-10 percent per year) growth rate in gasoline consumption. In addition, the country imports around one-third of its gasoline. In volume terms, Iran is the second largest importer of gasoline in the world after the United States. In 2005, Iran imported 150,000 bbl/d out of total consumption of 400,000 bbl/d. For 2006, FACTS estimates Iran will consume 462,000 bbl/d of gasoline and import 188,000 bbl/d, or roughly 41 percent of total consumption. According to Petroleum Argus, around 60 percent of this comes from European oil trader, Vitol, with another 15 percent coming from India’s 600,000-bbl/d Reliance refinery However, although Iran imports large amounts of gasoline, it is an overall net petroleum products exporter due to its large gross exports of residual fuel oil.* *
Through the summer of 2006, there was heated debate among Iranian politicians as to how to balance expanding gasoline needs and the corresponding increase needed for gasoline subsidies. NIOC has said it has used nearly its entire $2.5 billion budget for gasoline imports but legislators have stated their opposition to providing the additional $3.5 billion necessary to pay for imports through the end of the fiscal year, in March 2007. Options put forward for addressing the issue included ceasing gasoline imports in September 2006 when many contracts expire and rationing gasoline, or implementing a two-tier price system whereby each car is allotted 2.5-3 liters a day at the subsidized price of 8.7 cents per liter, with consumption beyond that at 60-65 cents per liter.
Going forward, FACTS reports that Iran will complete construction of three 120,000 bbl/d condensate splitters by 2009. The facilities will produce an estimated 200,000 bbl/d of gasoline. Along with other projects, it is possible that Iran will cease being a gasoline importer by 2010.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Iran/Oil.html
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Iran should execute them as Zionist spies
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Its strange how you want Iran so badly that you are wishing death upon 15 innocents?
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
This game is growing stale. Punch out an agreed statement that a "mutual misunderstanding" has occurred, release the British, and agree to some kind of co-op investigation why the "misunderstanding" happened and place safeguards to assure that such "misunderstandings" can be avoided in the future.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Hard-line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Saturday blasted world powers, accusing them of being “arrogant” for failing to apologize and insisted that the soldiers trespassed in Iranian waters.
“The British occupier forces did trespass our waters. Our border guards detained them with skill and bravery. But arrogant powers, because of their arrogant and selfish spirit, are claiming otherwise,” the state-run news agency IRNA quoted Ahmadinejad as saying during a speech in the southeastern city of Andinmeshk…
At a soccer match on Friday in Tehran, tens of thousands of fans chanted “Death to Britain.” Hundreds also rallied near Tehran University to condemn what they called a “British invasion,” and a prominent Muslim cleric proudly told assembled worshippers that “Britain is an aggressor and Iran has confronted it.”
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/31/africa/ME-GEN-British-Seized-Iran.php
…
Game on.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
It is arrogance...Britain should accept responsibility and apologise...these arent civilians being taken hostage these are soliders who have trespassed...Iran are well within their rights to act as they see fit cos they are a sovereign entity...you break the laws of a country then expect to be dealt with based on their laws...
The hostages deserve whatever they get...
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
I wish Iran would execute all of them
And then let the students rampage in the British embassy and lynch the entire embassy staff
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Agreed. They’re all crazy (but then, one really must be crazy to want to be the president of a country in the first place sooooo… there you have it). 
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Seems the situation has cooled a bit. A 'misunderstanding' agreement seems closer as well as a plan that should help "misunderstandings" from occuring in the future.
This situation ends this week, the costs are to high.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Just as I said at the start, this is all blowing over. Ahmedinejad has announced that the 15 will be released immediately. It took 8 days last time, and around a fortnight this time.
Once more… the mAd_ScIeNtIsT is right. Being this right this often is starting to bore me…
At the end of the day, ever since the 1990s when revolutionary zeal finally vanished, Iran’s successive elected officials have never acted in an irrational way with regard to international affairs (though what they say has often been odd, but intended for domestic consumption). There was no reason to ever suspect they would do something stupid enough to do something belligerent like prosecuting and later persecuting another country’s military personnel.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says 15 British naval personnel captured in the Gulf are free to leave.
He repeated allegations that the British sailors and marines “invaded” Iranian waters, but said they were being released as a “gift” to Britain.
He said they would be taken to Tehran airport and flown home within hours.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
I think Iran has let its proxy, Hezbollah act in irrational ways a lot of times
from the terrorist attacks in Argentina in 1992 to the war with israel in 2006
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Yawn, this should have happened five days ago. Iran looks like idiots. A "gift", is because they could get nothing in return. Complete backdown.
Yawn.
And do we have to live through the predictable "I told you so's from Maddy? Boy Foreign Affairs genius? Sheesh."
At the beginning here were the odds:
Sailors returned within 30 days: 99.9%
Shooting starts: .1%
Hooray for MadScientist, political soothsayer.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
The British sailors have been released according to the BBC.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Yawn, this should have happened five days ago. Iran looks like idiots. A "gift", is because they could get nothing in return. Complete backdown.
Iran's actions are for domestic consumption. Ahmedinejad has always known that he has a hardline electoral support base that the Ayatollahs are trying to lure away from him.
An action like this is of limited international use (it did not provoke Iran's few friends and only irritated countries hostile to Iranian interests) but from a domestic point of view it's more of a success.
Due to bad memories from the past centuries of "The Great Game", Iran is filled with memories of Britain the colonial powerhouse that constantly seeked, (and they think continues to seek) to control and humiliate Iran. To Ahmedinajad's electoral support base, he managed to retaliate at last and at least for a few days, humiliated Britain by forcing us to ask for something from Iran; at least for a few days levelled the playing field.
At any rate, I never had any doubt from the start that our boys would be back home with us once the drama act was over and I've been proved right.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
the iranians have got back one of their kidnapped diplomats and have been given access to the ones previously taken from the embassy. apparently theres been some amount of haggling although denied by official sources.
by releasing the soldiers a dark cloud has been lifted over the entire globe. this situation was looking very bad even with the toned down rhetoric of the last few days.
the situation has forced everyone to step back and look at prospectives which the world wasnt willing to look at. im not sure whether this will have the desired effect on the nuclear issue though. it must have infuriated the warmongers to see ahmedinejad juggling like that and they'll be back at irans door soon. by having witnessed the tension of the situation the question is whether the public in US and europe will be willing to risk their troops in any future action.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
MS, I agree with you that this was partly for domestic consumption and in that respect ii was played well by Iran, 'pardoning" (were they ever charged?) and releasing the brits on Muhammad’s birthday, nice touch. But how many jobs did this create for Iran, a real issue rather than a created one. But what else have they gained and loss? 1. My guess is respect from the Muslims world is up but perhaps some resentment as well (it was Persians who stood up to the west after all, not Arabs). 2. The leaders from the Muslim world can't be happy with Iran, as their people likely respect Iran more than them. 3, and here's the real fallout for Iran, Europe. While this play was a hit at home it was not abroad and my guess is that this prolonged game did not sit well with many European countries, and Israel in its private conversations with these countries can say, 'now do you believe?'
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
This was petty crap, a distraction from the sanctions.
Now all you will hear about is sanctions, and Iran will try some other charm offensive to look big in the face of huge unemployment at home, and closing ranks around them.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
I agree with Mad Scientist that those British sailors were not in Iranian waters and Iran just captured them and Ahmedinijad just made them into a show piece for Iranians that the Mighty Persians can bring the Western powers like UK to its knees.
However, Iran by doing this has raised the stakes. The next time the British will go to inspect these Ships, they will be very heavily armed and if some IRGC tries to become a hero to arrest these British Sailors, it would lead to a clash between the Royal Navy and Iranian Navy.
If USA troops were the one arrested, it could have led to an all out war.
Iran by doing this has raised the stakes and any such mis-understanding in the future could be perceived as hostile actions on either party.
The world is certainly more dangerous place after this event has occurred.
Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
^^
Like I said, Iran acts rationally. Reports indicate that 2 Revolutionary Guard boats were involved in seizing our boys. The first boat arrived when the freighter was boarded, and it adopted a friendly position. The second one arrive later, and then they turned hostile.
In other words, the first boat checked out our boys and realised they were vulnerable, and then the second boat arrived to make sure they could be easily overwhelmed.
If they had been heavily armed to start with, none of this would have happened.
As a result of this incident British patrols will be more heavily armed and probably operate closer to their ships, with greater aerial surveillance.
The Iranians will realise it will be hard to repeat this, and so no repeats, or attempted repeats, will occur.
The mAd_ScIeNtIsT has spoken... and now you may sit back and watch me be proven right yet again.