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Polls show anti-establishment trend
By Amjad Warraich
LAHORE: The elector for the general elections has shown an anti-establishment trend all over Pakistan by giving the duo of the PPP-P and the PML-N an edge in Punjab and the MMA in the NWFP.
However, basically it is going to be a three-way fight among the PPP-P, the PML-N and the PML-QA in Punjab and among the MMA, the PPPP-ANP and the two PML factions in the NWFP. The PPP-P candidates are also leading in Interior Sindh while the MQM-HP's in Urban Sindh. Balochsitan is as usual highly polarised.
It is pertinent to note that The News already predicted on Wednesday that split in anti-Bhutto votes would benefit the PPP-P.
The elector has responded to Gen Pervez Musharraf's call for a positive change but their verdict is against his aspirations as the government-sponsored newly created political parties have failed to get even simple majority in any of the national or provincial assemblies.
The situation expected to emerge will make it too difficult for Musharraf to get his constitutional reforms passed smoothly by the Parliament. However, there is a hope for him in Makhdum Amin Faheem, who will be the prime minister in case the PPP-P wins the elections.
Makhdum is the man for whom the military authorities clashed with Benazir Bhutto. They wanted Benazir to hand over the PPP-P's leadership to Makhdum but Benazir refused to do so. Now thanks to electoral laws, Benazir is not member of the Parliament and Makhdum is the only probable for premiership in the PPP-P. Fortunately, he at once enjoys the support of both Benazir and military authorities.
If the PPP-P emerges as the single largest party, both the PML-QA and the PML-N will be ready to join a coalition government headed by Makhdum. However, military authorities will opt for a coalition between the PPP-P and the PML-QA.
If it so happens, it will be better for the PML-N in the long run as it will emerge as an alternative political force. Similarly, if the PML-N joins a PPPP-led coalition, the Q League will emerge as an opposition force. If the two leagues unite, it will be too difficult for Makhdum to form government.
Responding to calls for change, the elector has not elected big guns like ANP President Asfand Yar Wali Khan, Abbas Sarfraz Khan, Dr Tahirul Qadri, Ch Jaffar Iqbal, Hamid Nasir Chattha, Elahi Bux Somoro and Naseerullah Babar. PML-QA President Mian Muhammad Azhar, PML-N Chairman Raja Zafarul Haq and its Acting President Javed Hashmi were also facing difficult situations in their home constituencies.
Jamaat-e-Islami Amir Qazi Hussain Ahmad, Tehrik-e-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan, PPP-P Chairman Makhdum Amin Faheem, Millat Party President Sardar Farooq Ahmad Leghari, PPP-S Chairman Aftab Ahmad Sherpao, Tehrik-e-Istiqlal Chairman Qaiser Ahmad Sheikh, JUI-F leader Maulana Fazalur Rehman and PML-Jinnah President Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo's daughter Rubina Shaheen were leading in their constituencies.
It seems the elector has also given a verdict for change in the pattern of voting behaviour as rural-urban division of 1993 elections seems to have been replaced with various other factors. The PPP-P has regained ground in several urban centers courtesy split in the PML votebank. The rural areas have also given a mixed mandate in this regard.
According to the reports pouring in The News office from all over Punjab, the turnout has remained within 30 to 40 per cent in most of the areas. It was 63.42 per cent in the first general elections of Pakistan held in 1970, 53.69 per cent in 1985, 43.07 per cent in 1988, 45.46 per cent in 1990, 40.28 per cent in 1993 and 35.42 per cent in the last general elections of 1997.
The reasons for low turnout are political leadership's failure to restore public confidence in it, the government's attempts to keep the elections party-less, opposition parties' failure to mobilise the public and Nadra's mess in preparation of electoral lists.
Those early results merely came so that it would look as if the elections were fair…