Re: My Election prediction
[TABLE]
mYsTeRiOus expected result 1 (election 2013)
Party
I-bad
KPK
Punjab
Sindh
Baluchstan
FATA
Total
PPP
0
1
13
29
2
45
PTI
2
15
37
3
2
59
PMLN
0
3
73
0
2
78
PMLQ
0
0
10
2
1
13
MQM
0
0
0
20
0
20
ANP
0
4
0
0
0
4
PMLF
0
0
1
5
0
6
JUI +
0
4
0
0
2
6
JI
0
3
0
0
0
3
BNP
0
0
0
0
1
1
PPP-S
0
1
0
0
0
1
NPP
0
0
0
1
0
1
IND
0
5
14
1
4
12
36
Total
2
35
148
61
14
12
272
I think your expectations are reasonable and best thing is that all numbers add up accurately (not like some, whose numbers do not even add up accurately).
On the other hand, I feel you are seeing things with prism of some biases (though that may be true about my expected result too). My expected result was as follow:
[quote]
[TABLE="width: 496"]
My expected result 1 (election 2013)
Party
I-bad
KPK
Punjab
Sindh
Baluchstan
FATA
Total
PPP
0
6
32
29
4
71
PTI
2
7
30
0
0
39
PMLN
0
2
41
0
0
43
PMLQ
0
4
29
5
2
40
MQM
0
0
0
21
0
21
ANP
0
7
0
0
0
7
PMLF
0
0
1
4
0
5
JUI +
0
4
0
0
2
6
JI
0
2
0
0
0
2
BNP
0
0
0
0
1
1
PPP-S
0
1
0
0
0
1
NPP
0
0
0
1
0
1
IND
0
2
15
1
5
12
35
Total
2
35
148
61
14
12
272
[/quote]
No doubt you believe PMLN would do good in this election (and that is accordance with many media analysts too).
You also believe that PTI would do much better than what I believe (that could be possible).
As for PPP and PMLQ, you think they would not post good result, especially in Punjab. I do not know why you think that way, but I cannot argue as the numbers you gave is your assessment (or wishful thinking :)).
My assessment is different from yours. PMLN ruled Punjab effectively as single party, and I do not think they delivered much, especially when compared to past government of Pervaiz Elahi. Satisfaction with Pervaiz Elahi government in Punjab is obvious from the number of votes PMLQ got in 2008 election (as they had highest number of votes in Punjab).
On the other hand, in 2008 Nawaz Shareef had sympathy votes with him, and they also had support of JI and PTI voters (note: One example is Hanif Abbasi who was JI candidate in 2002 election … joined PMLN when JI announced election boycott). And even then PMLN got lower number of votes than PMLQ.
PPP vote count was also not far behind PMLQ and PMLN. Actually all 3 parties got votes between 5 million and 5.5 million each. In most 2008 constituencies, PMLN and PPP joined hands to push PMLQ to the wall, and they managed to do that (PMLQ got most votes but very few seats).
Realities of 2013 election that I took into account:
1: PMLN ruled Punjab exclusively and still they did not delivered, rather we can see police culture worse than ever, bad law and order situation, bad situation in education, horrendous job opportunity situation, over all deterioration in most areas, and so on.
2: Opposition to local government by PMLN must have created lot of un-satisfaction with PMLN, as local government was obviously providing much better participation of locals in government and their say in local administration, easy accesses to leaders ruling them who were from local communities, and also local development much better than when there is no local government (funds coming to local government are spent in local areas, that is not true when someone is in national or provincial government and get funds to spend in local areas … as many do not even live in areas they get elected … ).
3: PMLN biases in allocating funds to members of opposition parties, and that means less fund allocation in areas where PMLQ and PPP candidates won 2008 election. People of these areas would have obviously seen the difference when PMLQ was ruling the province compared to PMLN rule, and thus increasing chances for PMLQ to win again from these areas from where they won in 2008 (or got squeezed due to PMLN and PPP partnership).
Even though PMLN is trying to cover up their misadministration, corruption, and incompetency, by putting all blames on PPP federal government, but that would not work for most voters, as we all know that federal government’s say in provincial administration and development is very little, nor they can do much, and thus most of the blames lies with provincial government (and they are there to sort out things anyhow).
But few important things to remember when thinking of 3013 election outcome, especially in Punjab are:
4: No sympathy votes in Punjab for Nawaz anymore.
5: All three parties (PMLN, JI, and PTI) joined together in 2008 to give boost to PMLN, are contesting election in 2013. Thus, there is no PTI and JI votes to support PMLN.
6: In 2008, PMLN also had support of PPP at constituencies where they had strong contest with PMLQ.
7: In 2013 election, PMLQ and PPP … whose combined votes in 2008 Punjab election was twice that of PMLN votes (that was combined votes of JI, PTI and PMLN) … or around 10.5 million votes compared to PMLN 5.3 million votes, have joined hands.
8: As for voting is concerned, we have two types of voters in Pakistan, one is independent voters and other is bounded voters. Bounded voters have no choice and would vote who they would be told. Many constituencies in Punjab would be decided by bounded voters, and in these constituencies PPP and PMLQ dominates, so it is unlikely that they would lose these seats (unless their candidates switch sides and I could not see that happening).
9: There is wave of anti-Taliban feelings across Pakistan, including Punjab, and that feeling is rising day by day. This anti-Taliban feelings must be at peak in KPK where people suffered most at the hands of Taliban. PMLN (as well as JUI, PTI and JI) is seen as pro-Taliban parties, and that would make them lose votes.
And so on …
You might question that if all what I wrote make sense, why PMLN is showing good support in most surveys.
Answer is simple (according to my belief). Most Pakistanis keep quite or show support for party they are scared most, especially when they believe party is vindictive (and there is no doubt, PMLN is vindictive). That does not mean they would vote for the party.
Secondly, what seems obvious may not be true in Pakistani politics. For instance, if we see the obvious, it seems whole Pakistan is eagerly waiting for election, but in fact many are indifferent and most think that no change would come through election where ‘thugs contest election to win by hook or crook, to loot the country’. This will also show in turnout, as most would not vote and most likely we might see at most 40 percent turnout (even though by seeing the obvious, it seems Pakistan should have 80 percent turnout).
In the end … I could be wrong in my analysis, completely off the mark. So let us wait and see, as after all these are pre-election assessment. On 12[SUP]th[/SUP] May when result would start coming, numbers would speak itself.:)
