Re: My Election prediction
^ as per Yazdi calculation it's mean PTI can not form the Govt. So what you think they make an alliance with someone in parliament to form a govt.or sit on opposition benches?
Re: My Election prediction
^ as per Yazdi calculation it's mean PTI can not form the Govt. So what you think they make an alliance with someone in parliament to form a govt.or sit on opposition benches?
In my opinion they will sit in the opposition. If they become second largest party ahead of PPP.. probably PPP will offer PTI to form the government without giving any share to PPP in the government. They may lured in to this kind of an offer. The post election politics will be totally different from what is happening now when everyone is trying to win maximum seats.
P.S. Yesterday in Kamran Khan show the experts were still giving over a hundred seats to PMLN and about 30-40 for PTI. I think the situation is better for PTI than these predictions. About a month ago PMLN was well poised to get over 130.. while PTI was expected to remain below 20. There is a swing in PTI favor compared to that situation.. but to be realistic.. chances of PTI becoming the largest party in the parliament is highly unlikely.
Re: My Election prediction
The key lies with the silent voters sitting in homes. In the rallies mostly the party activists are present... and there is no doubt that PTI has a lot of young die hard activists..
Re: My Election prediction
Thanks Yazdi!
What I'm seeing as per Punjab situation 20 to PTI 20 indpendrlent 15 Plmq 20 PPP and 60 to PMNL, that so called Matka group will effect the results which contain around 30 seats! As observers watching them as Est.strategy to make presure on other major parties before and after elections! What you think about it? Any idea coz it's seems that group collect the seats between 20 to 25! And there must be other independent candidate also.
SINDH hhhm I'm not seeing any seat for Pmln ( may be 1 ) not either PTI exsist there. PPP and MQM in rural and urban grab almost of it. The result of KPK in this elections might be change but likely to same as Punjab as ANP and Fazlu on top compare to other big parties. Let see! What come out
Re: My Election prediction
^ fazlu will lose seats in KPK that's why he is attacking imran khan.
Re: My Election prediction
May be few but not all tho!
Re: My Election prediction
^ he will lose quite a few seats to PTI, lets see..both JI and JUI will lose seats. Fingers crossed!
Re: My Election prediction
Punjab:
There are going to be maximum 10 independents from Punjab. PPP is expected to win 10 from South Punjab from where they won 25 last time. in the rest of Punjab they will a maximum of five.. even on those seats there is going to be tough competition.. Firdous Awan and Kaira are not 100% sure about retaining their seats. Ahmad Mukhtar is losing against Pervaiz Elahi.. Not even one expert is giving 20 seats to PPP from Punjab. Similarly PMLQ can win a maximum of 5/6 seats. Let’s say 15 PPP, 5 PMLQ, and 10 independents. These are 30 seats. The rest of 118 seats will be predominantly shared between PTI and PMLN.
Yesterday in Kamran Khan show Iftikhar and Warriach said 80 seats are already confirm win for PMLN.. and 20 for PTI. These do not include swing seats. The mean the tally of both these parties will go higher than that.
Sind: PMLN is strong on Malir seat from Karachi. PTI has a remote chance on Alvi seat (NA250).. May be PMLN can pull through Liaqat Jatoi seat as well. Two seats will be won by NPP. There are 5/6 independents and 6/7 PMLF. MQM and PPP are going to lose some seats in Sind. Last time PPP had 32.. this time they can have a maximum of 27.. the more likely figure is 25. Although in Kamran Khan show they were predicting 32 seats again for PPP.
Baluchistan: There are 3 confirm seats for PMLN in Baluchistan. PTI does not have a chance there. PPP is not expected to win any seat from Bauchistan.
KPK: Traditionally KPK has always been the most unpredictable province as far as election results are concerned. Never in the history of KPK they had same results in two elections. Every election in KPK is unique. Apart from Punjab.. KPK with 35 seats is also a major battle ground. It is expected that ANP and JUIF are going to lose a lot of their seats this time. PMLN and PTI are going to gain in KPK. JI who boycotted the last election are also going to win some seats there.
There is an excellent unbiased seat by seat analysis on pkpolitics. There are many seats where one candidate has 100 points and the other has 95. These are basically swing seats. Although this web site is predominantly PMLN.. but I spoke to some PTI insiders who are giving a lot of importance to this analysis which looks every close to the ground situation as today.
http://pkpolitics.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/files/2013/05/PKP-Election2013-Predictions-v4.pdf
P.S.
Although this is the most comprehensive election result prediction I have seen so far.. I expect PTI to win 10-15 extra seats from Punjab.. while PMLN tally will reduce from 97. PPP tally could also reduce if the lose some seats like Samina Ghurki, Kaira, and Awan.. the major gainer will be PTI who in my opinion will do much better than 27 seats in Punjab..
Re: My Election prediction
Just think after elections
PPP has majority in Senate
Even PPP and allies have two third majority in senate
PPP and allies are sure for total control over Sindh in coming elections
PPP has governments in GB and AJK
Just think ,think and think again
*Bhutto day naaray wajan gay *
Re: My Election prediction
Just think after elections PPP has majority in Senate Even PPP and allies have two third majority in senate PPP and allies are sure for total control over Sindh in coming elections PPP has governments in GB and AJK Just think ,think and think again *Bhutto day naaray wajan gay *
Who allies?
I thought you are a grown up man..
Nobody is allied to anyone.. everyone has their own interest. There will be new alliances and alignments.. after election. Every party is going to see their own interest.. I can see a forward block in PPP in Senate also after the election. These guys go in the parliament to remain in the government.. not in the opposition.. specially Senators who spend 10/15 crores for a seat in the senate..
As far as MQM is concerned.. they are targeting Sind Chief Ministership this time.. which makes them arch rivals of PPPP..
Re: My Election prediction
Re: My Election prediction
I never tried to laugh on you
Come out of election hype
ANP PPP and MQM will have to go combined after election for making a government in Sindh and to form a collation government in center perhaps with PTI .
Do you think that PTI and PML N can make an alliance soon after this phaitny wainty .
Dream of a forward block in senate
possible with Rehman Malik alone
Re: My Election prediction
^ if PPP loses 10 seats in Sindh in the coming elections the next cm would be mqms.
Re: My Election prediction
I never tried to laugh on you Come out of election hype ANP PPP and MQM will have to go combined after election for making a government in Sindh and to form a collation government in center perhaps with PTI . Do you think that PTI and PML N can make an alliance soon after this phaitny wainty . Dream of a forward block in senate possible with Rehman Malik alone
MQM can make an alliance with PMLF.. and as a senior partner can bring their CM.. kuch aaya aqal sharif main AP sahib.
The only alliance all these parties have is their own interest..
These phaintay waintay are all pre election slogans.. don't take them seriously.
PTI would most likely opt to sit in the opposition and target the next election only because it will be in their interest.
And if that happens.. Zardari sahib ki total chutti ho jaye gi...
Re: My Election prediction
BTW, what are the candidates for higher posts, if Pee Pee Pee comes to power (Khakam-Bad'han) ?
President = Sab si bari beemari, one and only Zardari
Prime Minister = Beemari ki behan nr. 1: Faryal Zardari Talpur
Foreign Minister = Beemari ki behan nr. 2: Azra Zardari Peechoho
CM Sindh = Beemari ka Razai bhai : *Tappi *
So Bhutto is history now, its all Zardari for PPP.
Re: My Election prediction
Baluchistan: There are 3 confirm seats for PMLN in Baluchistan. PTI does not have a chance there. PPP is not expected to win any seat from Bauchistan.
The biggest factor is the unknown nature of PTIs vote. PTI has had a classic management style, with a complete registry of members, who Im sure will all vote for PTI. This registry is not available to the media, hence, they dont care to factor in these votes in their assessments, which is fine. Just as an example, a number cited by PTI media cell, which I have no reason to disbelieve, is that the total number of 'registered' PTI members of voting age in Quetta is several times the number of votes needed to win 259, where Qasim Ali Suri is running. PTI has a strong chance on 259 and 260, and this is based on documented voter lists.
Media is still running analyses based on prior elections, and prior voting lists. Noone makes much of an effort to factor in the enormous number of new voters, and PTIs aggressive on the ground campaign.
Re: My Election prediction
The biggest factor is the unknown nature of PTIs vote. PTI has had a classic management style, with a complete registry of members, who Im sure will all vote for PTI. This registry is not available to the media, hence, they dont care to factor in these votes in their assessments, which is fine. Just as an example, a number cited by PTI media cell, which I have no reason to disbelieve, is that the total number of 'registered' PTI members of voting age in Quetta is several times the number of votes needed to win 259, where Qasim Ali Suri is running. PTI has a strong chance on 259 and 260, and this is based on documented voter lists.
Media is still running analyses based on prior elections, and prior voting lists. Noone makes much of an effort to factor in the enormous number of new voters, and PTIs aggressive on the ground campaign.
May be you are right.. I hope you are right. I have no way of knowing the ground realities in Quetta. I hope PTI can increase significantly their tally from 50 seats..
Re: My Election prediction
[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
Party
I-bad
KPK
Punjab
Sindh
Baluchstan
FATA
Total
PPP
0
1
13
29
2
45
PTI
2
15
37
3
2
59
PMLN
0
3
73
0
2
78
PMLQ
0
0
10
2
1
13
MQM
0
0
0
20
0
20
ANP
0
4
0
0
0
4
PMLF
0
0
1
5
0
6
JUI +
0
4
0
0
2
6
JI
0
3
0
0
0
3
BNP
0
0
0
0
1
1
PPP-S
0
1
0
0
0
1
NPP
0
0
0
1
0
1
IND
0
5
14
1
4
12
36
Total
2
35
148
61
14
12
272
Re: My Election prediction
I told you earlier
Establishment played a very smart game
And in the end Establishment won PML N , PTI and PPP all loosing No stable government possible
And it is clear now
MQM can make an alliance with PMLF.. and as a senior partner can bring their CM.. kuch aaya aqal sharif main AP sahib. The only alliance all these parties have is their own interest.. These phaintay waintay are all pre election slogans.. don't take them seriously. PTI would most likely opt to sit in the opposition and target the next election only because it will be in their interest. And if that happens.. Zardari sahib ki total chutti ho jaye gi...
They have done this in 90 and 2002 but this is not possible this time .
Nothing is happening new .
Discussion among you all is telling that I am with ground realities .
Unexpected change in election results is another thing . Otherwise this group of PPP , ANP and MQM will be in the best position to bargain with PTI or PML N .
Re: My Election prediction
Seriously with what we are seeing now in regards to public support for PTI/IK, in punjab, KP, and other areas, it would only be a rigged election that could produce a PMLN 108 seats outcome.
And the youth 45 million new voters, they will go and vote since they are majority youth. Its the old timers, current middle aged and older generations that were notorious for not voting. However, a bigger threat is violence on May 11th, provoked or emotion driven, which could turn the election into something ugly both for the event and results.
Lets see, and pray for the best inshallah.
what i said in the other thread few days ago, people will say elections are rigged if PTI doesn't get seats they wish'em to get.