Re: My Election prediction
PTI might spring a surprise this time, i.e. might come second if not first. The momentum is with PTI for sure
The 40 million new voters (mostly youth, even if 50-60% of them turn up to vote on May 11) hold the key
Apart from Youth voters, people are seriously underestimating how many people will be voting for the first time in these elections due to the impact PTI has made on Pakistani politics, and needless to say vast majority of those voters will favour PTI.
Re: My Election prediction
PTI will surprise everyone who is underestimating BALLA Insha Allah!
Re: My Election prediction
^ this, fingers crossed, n praying
Re: My Election prediction
Pmlq cannot win 40 seats which is more than last time, as most of their electables have already left for greener pastures (PMLN).
Re: My Election prediction
Seriously with what we are seeing now in regards to public support for PTI/IK, in punjab, KP, and other areas, it would only be a rigged election that could produce a PMLN 108 seats outcome.
And the youth 45 million new voters, they will go and vote since they are majority youth. Its the old timers, current middle aged and older generations that were notorious for not voting.
However, a bigger threat is violence on May 11th, provoked or emotion driven, which could turn the election into something ugly both for the event and results.
Lets see, and pray for the best inshallah.
Re: My Election prediction
And in the end
Establishment won
PML N , PTI and PPP all loosing
No stable government possible
Re: My Election prediction
And in the end Establishment won PML N , PTI and PPP all loosing No stable government possible
Establishment has got nothing to do with this!
Re: My Election prediction
If PML - n is a loser, then who inherits takht-e-Lahore?
Re: My Election prediction
^ I think your assessment is imagination :)
can you please let me know where PPP will get its 32 seats in punjab from?
In my opinion, result of most seats in Punjab and rural Sindh would depend on candidates own hold in constituencies (Vaderas, Sardars, Zamindars), rather than on performance of party or election campaigns. It means, party that would chose most electable candidates would win.
In past electable candidates used to switch sides expecting that ‘party X’ or ‘party Y’ would form government (due to establishment interference … and thus expectation that party gone out would stay out and party that was in opposition would win).
Present election has no such restraints, and thus, most candidates would choose party they like as best. Obviously, in such situation, the party that candidate believes take care of their elected members best would get best candidates and in this respect PPP is the best.
[Zardari believes on khao aur khanay dou … whereas Nawaz believes on Khao aur khatay raho per kisi aur ko atna mauga na dou … Shareef brothers like to own whole of Pakistan un-shared]
Thus, in rural areas of Punjab and Sindh, PPP would still rule. It is possible that PMLQ and PMLF would make some inroads in PPP constitutional holds, else things would change little.
On other hand, PMLN would lose substantial ground to PTI (as voters of both parties belong to similar thought groups).
Punjab: Apart of electable seats that electable would win regardless of which party platform they would contest …
In last election (2008) PMLQ got most votes (though less seats) and that was around 5.5 million votes. PMLN got second highest number of votes (though most seats) and that was around 5.3 million votes. PPP got third highest number of votes (similar to PMLQ and PMLN) and that was around 5 million votes.
So, there is little to choose between vote banks of these three parties in Punjab. Anyhow, in 2013 election PPP and PMLQ have joined hands so there combined vote banks would make lot of difference (in last election it was ~ 10.5 million votes). PTI might attract some of PPP + PMLQ votes but most they would attract is of PMLN votes (actually in last election, PMLN votes was all not their own, but it was combined votes of PMLN, JI and PTI).
Thus, I would be surprised if PMLN would get more than 4 million votes from Punjab in 2013 election (compared to ~ 5.3 million votes in 2008 election). It means, PMLN losing many seats to other parties, especially to PTI.
KPK: Here voters are much more independent than voters of other provinces, and make their own choice, so upset is expected.
In KPK chances is that PMLN would lose ground. They had some hold in swat, but PMLN sold swat when they voted for KPK as name of province in constitutional amendment, so that Nawaz could get 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] chance as PM, and that would affect them adversely. Anyhow, PMLN might take 1 seat in KPK due to Ameer Muqam.
ANP and PPP would suffer due to lack of election campaign, bad performance of ANP government (that was in coalition with PPP), and bad media campaign maligning rule of ANP. That would give some increase in vote bank for PTI at expense of ANP. PTI is also expected to attract vote bank of PPP, PMLN, JUI, and PMLQ.
On the other hand, PMLQ may increase their seats in KPK due to their understanding with PPP and their past performance (pre 2008 election). PPP would lose seats due to their present performance as coalition partner with ANP and media propaganda against them.
Overall, unexpected changes could happen in KPK.
In Sindh many strong candidates have joined MQM plus MQM have made substantial inroads in interior Sindh, and thus there is chance that they might increase their seats from 19 to 21.
Due to horrendous performance of PPP, both PMLQ and PMLF could increase a seat or two each. All seats increases in Sindh would be at the expense of PPP.
**As for Baluchistan **Sardars would play vital role again and I believe PPP would again benefit from this situation, attracting electable Sardars. PMLQ had largest number of seats in Baluchistan after 2008 election, but over time they kept loosing those elected candidates to PPP. This time, PMLQ may not get that many seats what they got in 2008 election, but still they might increase their numbers from what they have today.
Islamabad: Federal area has 2 seats and I believe it is possible that both would go to PTI. Last time it was PMLN who got both seats.
FATA: Traditionally, candidates there get to NA as Independents, and that would stay same in this election.
Re: My Election prediction
Hope this will help prevent both major rigging and violence on the day
Pakistan army to deploy 70,000 troops for election security - WORLD - Globaltimes.cn
Re: My Election prediction
Since 2008 election few changes happened due to by-elections and desertion. I posted the situation that existed just before NA was dissolved.
Re: My Election prediction
This is Sa1eem’s prediction, we have seen his prediction and results in past too. Lets move on. Post your predictions and revisit the thread after elections 
For me, I can’t even predict what I’ll have for breakfast or lunch tomorrow, so no point in predicting how many seats will be won by which party 5 days from now… till then se kaam chalaao
Re: My Election prediction
Brother, you are right about my seats expectations. I do not predict as I do not have parrot (Tota) with me that takes out envelope (lafafa) with prediction. What I have done is analysed from the situation that exists at present in Pakistan. I have also mentioned the reasons of my analysis (in post 29).
My analysis could be wrong, but then, that is what I feel after assessing the information and practices regarding Pakistani voter behaviour, ground situations and ways election held in Pakistan.
There is still over 100 hours to go and a lot can happen in that time. The way Rahman Malik has started campaign of exposing PMLN leadership’s corruption and lies, it is possible that PMLN seats may get reduced further and PTI may gain few seats due to that. If that would happen, than it is possible PTI might get 43 to 44 seats and PMLN ending at around 35 seats.
But then again, I have to say that my analysis is not divine and thus it could be completely out. In the end, it would be result that would come out after election that matters.
Nevertheless, I would surely like to see what others can give figures, and reason behind their figures, if any. That is all. 
Re: My Election prediction
Bohat say logo kay neechay say zameen sirik rahi hia! Predictions are somewhat funny here!
Re: My Election prediction
Even the so called electable s are now facing opposition even from their own homes.
Re: My Election prediction
And in the end Establishment won....
Ye bazi election ki bazi hai jo chaho laga do dar kiasa.... Gar jeet gye to kia kehna haare tau establishment ki marzi hai..!
Re: My Election prediction
Leave them alone for a change. Wo kuch kareiN tab bhi burey, na kareiN tab bhi burey… By the way, shair acha coin kia hey 
k:
Re: My Election prediction
hehe...mazak acha hai
Re: My Election prediction
In my opinion, result of most seats in Punjab and rural Sindh would depend on candidates own hold in constituencies (Vaderas, Sardars, Zamindars), rather than on performance of party or election campaigns. It means, party that would chose most electable candidates would win.
In past electable candidates used to switch sides expecting that ‘party X’ or ‘party Y’ would form government (due to establishment interference … and thus expectation that party gone out would stay out and party that was in opposition would win).
Present election has no such restraints, and thus, most candidates would choose party they like as best. Obviously, in such situation, the party that candidate believes take care of their elected members best would get best candidates and in this respect PPP is the best.
[Zardari believes on khao aur khanay dou … whereas Nawaz believes on Khao aur khatay raho per kisi aur ko atna mauga na dou … Shareef brothers like to own whole of Pakistan un-shared]
Thus, in rural areas of Punjab and Sindh, PPP would still rule. It is possible that PMLQ and PMLF would make some inroads in PPP constitutional holds, else things would change little.
On other hand, PMLN would lose substantial ground to PTI (as voters of both parties belong to similar thought groups).
Punjab: Apart of electable seats that electable would win regardless of which party platform they would contest …
In last election (2008) PMLQ got most votes (though less seats) and that was around 5.5 million votes. PMLN got second highest number of votes (though most seats) and that was around 5.3 million votes. PPP got third highest number of votes (similar to PMLQ and PMLN) and that was around 5 million votes.
So, there is little to choose between vote banks of these three parties in Punjab. Anyhow, in 2013 election PPP and PMLQ have joined hands so there combined vote banks would make lot of difference (in last election it was ~ 10.5 million votes). PTI might attract some of PPP + PMLQ votes but most they would attract is of PMLN votes (actually in last election, PMLN votes was all not their own, but it was combined votes of PMLN, JI and PTI).
Thus, I would be surprised if PMLN would get more than 4 million votes from Punjab in 2013 election (compared to ~ 5.3 million votes in 2008 election). It means, PMLN losing many seats to other parties, especially to PTI.
KPK: Here voters are much more independent than voters of other provinces, and make their own choice, so upset is expected.
In KPK chances is that PMLN would lose ground. They had some hold in swat, but PMLN sold swat when they voted for KPK as name of province in constitutional amendment, so that Nawaz could get 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] chance as PM, and that would affect them adversely. Anyhow, PMLN might take 1 seat in KPK due to Ameer Muqam.
ANP and PPP would suffer due to lack of election campaign, bad performance of ANP government (that was in coalition with PPP), and bad media campaign maligning rule of ANP. That would give some increase in vote bank for PTI at expense of ANP. PTI is also expected to attract vote bank of PPP, PMLN, JUI, and PMLQ.
On the other hand, PMLQ may increase their seats in KPK due to their understanding with PPP and their past performance (pre 2008 election). PPP would lose seats due to their present performance as coalition partner with ANP and media propaganda against them.
Overall, unexpected changes could happen in KPK.
In Sindh many strong candidates have joined MQM plus MQM have made substantial inroads in interior Sindh, and thus there is chance that they might increase their seats from 19 to 21.
Due to horrendous performance of PPP, both PMLQ and PMLF could increase a seat or two each. All seats increases in Sindh would be at the expense of PPP.
**As for Baluchistan **Sardars would play vital role again and I believe PPP would again benefit from this situation, attracting electable Sardars. PMLQ had largest number of seats in Baluchistan after 2008 election, but over time they kept loosing those elected candidates to PPP. This time, PMLQ may not get that many seats what they got in 2008 election, but still they might increase their numbers from what they have today.
Islamabad: Federal area has 2 seats and I believe it is possible that both would go to PTI. Last time it was PMLN who got both seats.
FATA: Traditionally, candidates there get to NA as Independents, and that would stay same in this election.
There are many unknowns in these elections, all pundits are pointing towards PMLN forming the next government. This if PTI does not make any impact, the most uncertain factor is PTI. Almost half the voters of the next elections would be youth (most of which support PTI), add to this many people would be voting for the first time, professionals, minorities etc would be voting for them. If the voting ratio increases to over 50 then I am afraid all our projections will fall flat on their face. The situation is so uncertain that no pundit is giving a definite number of seats for the parties.
Re: My Election prediction
PTI is the front runner at the moment on at least 30 seats. Another 30 seats are now open and there is a tough competition. IK should concentrate on these 30 seats for next 3/4 days.. If PTI manages around 50 seats it will be a great achievement and a result of a very successful campaign. In that scenario PMLN seats will reduce to anywhere between 75-85. PPP is going towards near extinction in Punjab, KPK and Baluchistan. In these 3 provinces they will manage a maximum of 15-20 seats. Add 25 from Sind and they will end up anywhere between 40-45. So the final tally can look like this:
PMLN 85
PTI 50
PPP 45
This tally will depend on the final up surge of PTI in the last 3/4 days of campaign if they can keep the momentum.
I take back my month old prediction of PTI not winning any seats from Lahore. They are front runners now on at least 3 seats..