Re: My Election prediction
Well, I am fine and I believe my assessment still stands.
Obviously, I did not looked at each constituency to assess situations but looked at the strength of parties and type of candidate parties are expected to put in. It is same with most assessments. For instance, if I would ask anyone who believe PPP would win most interior NA seats to name their candidates on each constituency and why they think that particular candidate would win, none would be able to answer other than that PPP own votes bank in interior Sindh constituencies are enough to make PPP candidates win the election (even though opposition party candidates would be electable too, but their party votes are not enough to get them through).
In most Pakistani constituencies an electable candidate gets two types of votes. One is candidate own votes and other is party votes. In constituencies where electable wins, if party is not going to put in electable, they would lose, thus all parties put electable. For instance … if electable in a particular Punjab constituency is ‘Jatt’, then no Party is going to expect a win putting ‘Butt’ there … so all will have their candidates an electable ‘Jatt’ and then candidate votes plus party votes would decide the result :).
If you would read my earlier posts, I did mention that most constituencies PMLQ and PPP wins consist of electable who can win regardless of party (Party votes are an addition that make them win against strong opposing candidate with weaker party in their constituency).
So, in my opinion, whoever PMLQ is going to put as candidate (obviously electable candidate) in constituencies where electable wins, added party votes to that electable would be enough for the person to win seat, and I believe PMLQ party votes are enough for them to get around 40 seats all over Pakistan (especially Punjab, but in Sindh, Baluchistan and KPK too).