Nope. Indian legal experts advised the government that asking for passports is illogical since accoridng to India PoK is Indian territory. Pak asked for UN documents, India initially said visas - we had a compromise. Meanwhile, neutral reporters say: India’s gains from Kashmir bus - i.e. LoC looks like a border.
They messed up. The locals want the bus more than them. The jihadis attack on the passengers backfired.
I suggest you look at the State department briefing by 3 senior Bush admin officials on March 25 to explain the F-16 decision.
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Here’s the point. You have a situation where you talk to President Musharraf and he says, “I’m going to visit Delhi.” Musharraf, of course, came from what is now India. He is an expatriate. He is returning back to his homeland, you know, his former homeland in a way he never has before. But we talked to someone like L.K. Advani with the BJP, which is not considered a soft party on Pakistan, and Advani is talking about – Advani comes from – his family comes from Karachi in Pakistan. And Advani is now planning a trip to Karachi, the first time he has been to Karachi since he left at the time of partition. This is different. These are things that have not happened before. And by the way, the people in the region are telling us this. They are telling us that this is – the thaw is at a point that they have not experienced in their professional lives.
But could it slide backwards? Sure it could. But that’s one of the reasons why it’s important to see this in a strategic framework. If you just took this piecemeal and you just throw – let’s do this sale here and then, you know, let’s do that sale there, then you could jangle nerves and feed mutual suspicions and hostilities and actually make this climate worse.
That’s why you’ve got to treat this in context and march forward on this as a parallel process on parallel tracks with objectives for both countries in mind, and Afghanistan, that they think makes senses for their futures. And then that helps nurture the diplomatic openings instead of closing them.
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Again and again the Bush admin mde it clear that the F-16 sale is in the context of peace in South Asia. Meaning - if Pak tries Kargil or jihadi escalation like the parliament attack - fuggedabout it.
No its not about India’s importance. It is about stability. If we have warlike situation, risk of nuclear escalation is there. US fear of Pak nukes leak out increases. If we have another Kargil - the US shuts down the arms pipe period. Like 1965, like in Kargil.
Let’s cut this out buddy. All those years Pakistan was calling for “peace” it was using jihadis to slit throats and bomb legislatures. Now the infiltration is down. So things are moving.
You don’t understand the level to which this whole thaw is tied to the infiltration.
Here is what Condoleezza Rice said in a speech yesterday. No one even asked her, she said it in the speech herself.
Condi on April 15
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Now, the interesting thing is that the more progress they make, the more the populations really want that progress to continue. They don’t want to go back to the bad old days. Now, there are problems. **There’s still incursions across the line of control which divides Kashmir. But it is a much better atmosphere now and our role has been to be supportive of that. **
And if I could say just one more word about this, it is an interesting phenomenon because, because of the war on terrorism, where essentially countries were made to make a choice about supporting extremism and terrorism or not, I think President Musharraf’s decision that he was not going to support extremists no matter what the cost, no matter if it was in Kashmir or anyplace else, put India and Pakistan, in a sense, on the same side of the war on terrorism, and that has been very important in contributing to their efforts.
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You don’t understand the level to which the whole US-India-Pak triangular relationship is tied to peace on the LoC and avoidance of jihadis. Bush and Condi and everyone in the US are saying as much. Sometime in the last few months, Mushy made a strategic decision to treat the Kashmir jihadis as he treats other terrorists. That was the crucial change.
Also see: this interview to understand how much of a factor peace in Kashmir is for the F-16 decision.
If Mushy revives jihad-e-Kashmir, the whole thing falls off.
Lobbyists can only do so much. I’ve been saying since 2004 that the F-16s are only a matter of time. Search my posts.
But if you think the US is going to support Pak is Mushy does another Kargil or revives the jihad - feel free. That is the kind of thinking that led to 1965, Kargil etc.
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