Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Obama

Good conversation Southie, have you checked the same numbers for the Chinese Economy?
THE 10 year is at around 2.8 pct and 30 year about 3.3 pct. So interest rates not very highy, but higher than US
What do the Chinese Treasuries cost/interest rate wise?

Have you ever wondered who is lending money to the Chinese People/Govt ? I READ SOMETHING ABOUT SHADOW BANKING. Beyond that I think their central bank must be buying government debt. Also the citizens probably own a lot of the Chinese bonds. Not sure they are allowed to own other countries bonds. their Economy is the fastest growing Economy IS IT STILL? and I bet they did not get there with HIGH INTEREST rates!

I have replied above.

[Bobby1]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Southie

This prediction was from 4 years back. So my prediction was off! By a lot.

Regarding future interest rates you may be right. But what goes up comes down and vice Versa.

Prices keep going up, population goes up, no of jobs keep going up so on average economy keeps growing. Consolidations give corporations monopolistic advantages. In Japan we have low interest rates for decades. Unless they solve some structural problems in the economy I can’t see sustainable growth. GDP growth came at expense of savings and not wage growth so that is not sustainable. The previous economic growths were based on creating bubbles and some laws prevent crazy leveraging now.

[Bobby1]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Obama the biggest problem that China has is that US totally controls the world’s monetary and financial markets and China is very dependent on exports to the west and by controlling currency valuations and having the ability to crash the SSE in minutes it still would be scary to invest in foreign markets. Some say Chinese growth nos are manufactured so hard to gauge real economic growth. Especially with looming trade war things could get pretty nasty. When I invested I did sort of PESTEL analysis together with valuations and risk reward picture. If I am not mistaken a lot of smart money has left China.

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Bobby1

Prices keep going up, population goes up, no of jobs keep going up so on average economy keeps growing. SO IF ECONOMY KEEPS GROWING AND LRICES GO UP THAT BRINGS INFLATION. Sonrates have to go up at some point. Consolidations give corporations monopolistic advantages. In Japan we have low interest rates for decades. Unless they solve some structural problems in the economy I can’t see sustainable growth. GDP growth came at expense of savings and not wage growth so that is not sustainable. The previous economic growths were based on creating bubbles and some laws prevent crazy leveraging now.

My response in all caps

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Bobby1

@Obama the biggest problem that China has is that US totally controls the world’s monetary and financial markets and China is very dependent on exports to the west and by controlling currency valuations and having the ability to crash the SSE in minutes it still would be scary to invest in foreign markets. Some say Chinese growth nos are manufactured so hard to gauge real economic growth. Especially with looming trade war things could get pretty nasty. When I invested I did sort of PESTEL analysis together with valuations and risk reward picture. If I am not mistaken a lot of smart money has left China.

Also th re maybe. Housing bubble in hina

[Bobby1]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Southie

My response in all caps

Under 2 percent you don’t get inflation, DT was hoping for 3. Lets see what the hurricanes do. At around 2 percent GDP per capita kind of stays the same.

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Bobby1

Under 2 percent you don’t get inflation, DT was hoping for 3. Lets see what the hurricanes do. At around 2 percent GDP per capita kind of stays the same.

What does GDP per capital have to do with the two percent. Are you saying population grows at 2 pct also

[Bobby1]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Southie

What does GDP per capital have to do with the two percent. Are you saying population grows at 2 pct also

There is population growth and then the real GDP is adjusted for inflation, there is real and nominal gdps. Mostly 2 percent for feds is a neutral position and over 2 they get hawkish and under 2 they get dovish. Sweet spot is around 2 percent inflation. Fed has both monetary and financial tools to address inflation. Since there was no wage growth and expenditure increased at cost of savings so this is where I think increase in consumer spending is not sustainable.

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Bobby1

There is population growth and then the real GDP is adjusted for inflation, there is real and nominal gdps. Mostly 2 percent for feds is a neutral position and over 2 they get hawkish and under 2 they get dovish. Sweet spot is around 2 percent inflation. Fed has both monetary and financial tools to address inflation. Since there was no wage growth and expenditure increased at cost of savings so this is where I think increase in consumer spending is not sustainable.

Ok thanks. I assume in your post 2 pct is nominal GDP growth. So if inflation is 2 pct real GDP growth is 0 pct

[Bobby1]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Southie

Ok thanks. I assume in your post 2 pct is nominal GDP growth. So if inflation is 2 pct real GDP growth is 0 pct

That is correct, I think they calculate in chained 2014 dollars now.

[Obama]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Southie

I have replied above.

Ok here is an experts (Zack’s) opinion of growth stocks dated Sept 25 2017 for the future considering the FED is not raising interest rates til next year!

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: HSBC, Toyota Motor, Home Depot, Boeing and...

for the benefit of those who may not get to the report above:

Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:
5 Mega-Cap Stocks to Buy with Impressive Growth Prospects(you find these listed in the report above website)

It’s been nine years since the U.S. central bank launched its quantitative easing program. Also, the U.S. stock market recently celebrated eight years of the bull run. That’s obviously not just a coincidence!
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs, initiated in December 2008, has played a major role in stimulating the U.S. economy. Apart from rescuing it from the ravages of the 2007-09 financial crisis that was marked with stock market downturns, foreclosures and prolonged unemployment, the boost in cheap liquidity from the rather unconventional monetary policy drove up stock and property markets, while bringing down bond yields. Today, the stock market indices are pushing further into record-high territories almost daily.
As consumer spending continues to grow on a recovering jobs market, low interest rates, strong U.S. dollar and cheaper fuel, the world’s largest economy may have more leg to run in 2017. However, even as we cheer the eighth birthday of the U.S. bull market, some investors are concerned that the conclusion of Fed’s unprecedented program of liquidity infusion might unnerve the market.
Fed’s Plans for Balance Sheet Normalization
With the Federal Reserve’s expansionary monetary policy providing the U.S. economy its much-needed impetus, the agency has now announced the beginning of the slow, long-drawn timetable to unwind its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The Fed plans to commence the procedure in October with reductions of a modest $10 billion each month through December. The rate would then go up by $10 billion every quarter so as to reach a cap of $50 billion in October 2018. Also in the offing is another hike in the short-term interest rates, which could take place in December this year.
The tightening of the monetary policy usually preludes weak demand, contraction of corporate earnings and a possible stock market correction. While the potential negative drag from a strong dollar on overseas profits and geopolitical concerns regarding the North Korean regime remain key concerns, a rapid unwinding of Fed’s holdings is the last thing the U.S. economy needs.
Though the Fed intends to move slowly and cautiously toward shrinking its bloated balance sheet and higher interest rates, telegraphing their every move far in advance, the experience is still going to bring a lot of volatility to the markets. In particular, speculations surrounding the timing of the Fed’s interest rate rise may result in increased market volatility.
However, before you freak out and decide to steer clear of the stock market apprehending the ‘taper tantrum’ that lies ahead, you may want to reconsider.

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Obama

Ok here is an experts (Zack’s) opinion of growth stocks dated Sept 25 2017 for the future considering the FED is not raising interest rates til next year!

Ihre Datenschutzeinstellungen

for the benefit of those who may not get to the report above:

Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:
5 Mega-Cap Stocks to Buy with Impressive Growth Prospects(you find these listed in the report above website)

It’s been nine years since the U.S. central bank launched its quantitative easing program. Also, the U.S. stock market recently celebrated eight years of the bull run. That’s obviously not just a coincidence!
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs, initiated in December 2008, has played a major role in stimulating the U.S. economy. Apart from rescuing it from the ravages of the 2007-09 financial crisis that was marked with stock market downturns, foreclosures and prolonged unemployment, the boost in cheap liquidity from the rather unconventional monetary policy drove up stock and property markets, while bringing down bond yields. Today, the stock market indices are pushing further into record-high territories almost daily.
As consumer spending continues to grow on a recovering jobs market, low interest rates, strong U.S. dollar and cheaper fuel, the world’s largest economy may have more leg to run in 2017. However, even as we cheer the eighth birthday of the U.S. bull market, some investors are concerned that the conclusion of Fed’s unprecedented program of liquidity infusion might unnerve the market.
Fed’s Plans for Balance Sheet Normalization
With the Federal Reserve’s expansionary monetary policy providing the U.S. economy its much-needed impetus, the agency has now announced the beginning of the slow, long-drawn timetable to unwind its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The Fed plans to commence the procedure in October with reductions of a modest $10 billion each month through December. The rate would then go up by $10 billion every quarter so as to reach a cap of $50 billion in October 2018. Also in the offing is another hike in the short-term interest rates, which could take place in December this year.
The tightening of the monetary policy usually preludes weak demand, contraction of corporate earnings and a possible stock market correction. While the potential negative drag from a strong dollar on overseas profits and geopolitical concerns regarding the North Korean regime remain key concerns, a rapid unwinding of Fed’s holdings is the last thing the U.S. economy needs.
Though the Fed intends to move slowly and cautiously toward shrinking its bloated balance sheet and higher interest rates, telegraphing their every move far in advance, the experience is still going to bring a lot of volatility to the markets. In particular, speculations surrounding the timing of the Fed’s interest rate rise may result in increased market volatility.
However, before you freak out and decide to steer clear of the stock market apprehending the ‘taper tantrum’ that lies ahead, you may want to reconsider.

Thank you Mr. President. May Inhave your permission to digest this and respond in due time?

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Mr. President, the Analyst blog states there could be increased volatility but tells us not to stay clear of the market. Lot of information, but the analyst appears to be covering his Ash by going all over again the place.

I would rebalance at this high level, sir.

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

I clicked on the link. Two stocks recommended HD and Boeing have gone up a lot. Zack is trying to suck in people at the top of so it seems.

[Obama]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Southie

I clicked on the link. Two stocks recommended HD and Boeing have gone up a lot. Zack is trying to suck in people at the top of so it seems.

I like Boeing stock but it has gone up close to 50% this year, waiting for it to split.

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Obama

I like Boeing stock but it has gone up close to 50% this year, waiting for it to split.

When a stock splits it does not get cheaper.

[ekumunng]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Bitcoin anyone?

[Southie]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@ekumunng

Bitcoin anyone?

No. Let us see if Mr. President is into it.

[Obama]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

@Southie

No. Let us see if Mr. President is into it.

Have been watching it but cannot decide whether to take the plunge into the unknown realm of digitally defined standards of exchange with No Government backing!

in the News this week they say someone stole $30 Million of them “BitCoins”…question is how will they prove it was lost? because where is the Loot deposited or kept

[queer]

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

There is way too much cr*p going on politically right now, it is hard to feel sure about anything for me personally. But the market seems to like keep climbing. NoKo nukes, Dodd Frank repeal, Net neutrality repeal, healthcare chaos, massive tax breaks for corps, AMT repeal, all forms of disruption looming on the horizon. Cant help but think we are one little push away from everything snowballing into a long painful spiral of problems. Part of me wants to just cash out of every position and move out of the US.