Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

What was the 10-yr US Treasury yield on Sept 30, 1981?

 Hattori San, you are correct! It was 15.84% (you even got the 2nd decimal right!!)

What was the 10-yr US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2011?

 Sannan San - did I hear 1.73%? You are almost correct - it was 1.72%.

Today (March 19) issue of WSJ states the 30+ year bull market in US Treasuries may be over. The yield jumped last week for 10-yr Treasury from 2.037% to 2.301%, a fulll 0.6% higher than the Sept 2011 low. As the economy picks up, yields are expected to go higher.

UBS has raised its forecast for 2012 end from 2.4% to 2.7. This difference of 0.3% is suspiciously close to the 0.263%yield increase last week.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Just for kicks, does anyone want to give estimates on where the 10-yr Treasury yield will be
1) one year from now
2) 3 yrs
3) 5 yrs

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

OK here we go - my guess

1) one year from now - 2.8%
2) 3 yrs - 4.5%
3) 5 yrs - 6.5%

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

The US 10-yr Treasury yield had reached 2.4% few days ago - and has now backed off to 2.2%. Will be interesting to see the tug off war between economy betting healthier (thus raising rates) and the European crisis this causing investors to flee to "safety" of the US Treasury. I know, this is edge of the seat excitement.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

The US 10-yr bond yield fell below 2% to 1.98%. Significant drop from recent peak of 2.4%. the drama continues.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

do you get it ^ Southie? ;-)

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

^ No. Maybe some paragraphs would have been easier on the eye. Thanks to the honorable person from Mauritius for contribution to this thread.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Bonds have staged huge rally. Southie guy is clueless.

Anyway 3 yrs from now expect yields to be higher.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Bonds rallied all the way to 1.78% yield for 10-yr treasury. The herd s hurries to "safety" at the mention of Europe.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

As of wed close the 20-yr treasury yield sunk to 1.68%. Insane territory.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

are you talking to yourself southie?

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Treasury has sunk to 1.46%. Insane now seems to mild

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

I got some stern messages from the guppians based in Europe. They rightly pointed out the 10-yr sovereign bonds over there have a lower yield! Last week's WSJ (dont have the paper anymore) stated UK yield is 1.2%, Germany also aroundsame level (these figures are from memory). Also, the interest rate on a German 2-year bond is -0.05%. You have to pay the German Govt to hold their 2-yr bonds.

Apologies to the UK sovereign debt followers in this forum.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

The bull wasn't in the market, it was in a china shop ... Emphasis on the china part.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Psyah - did not understand above post. ( but any post isxwelcome - some contrarians have been giving me a hard time of late about having a conversation with self)

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Sorry ... I thought of writing something for the sake of it ... making it sound related. :D

There is an idiom called "bull in a china shop" -

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Thanks! I had not heard of that idiom.

Do stop by every so often so I can keep up appearances of an interactive thread!

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

No kiddibg, Southie! I believe you called the bottom. 10-yr treasury is now at 1.82% 0.1% or 10 basis points higher than when this thread started.

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

No income and expenditure :hmmm:

Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?

Our staff initiated this thread 10.5 months ago. The 10 yr yield has gone up from 1.72 to 1.95 or about 2.3% loss. Probably breakeven including yield.

Today's wsj had an article about how bonds are getting pricey. We wont say we told you so.