Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
Thanks for bringing us back on topic with mention of bonds.
By reducing return of other investors central banks are also reducing their own return.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
The VIX is the lowest it has been since February 2007. It is at 10.6. So investors are super confident. As stated earlier this is a good contrarian indicator. Especially when coupled with valuations. Time will tell. Took a very little bit off the table today.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
Took the same very little bit off today also. Just about done with rebalancing.
Had sold some LLY(25%) at 59 few weeks back. Today it rocketed up 3.3% to 61.77. May sell some more at 65
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
When this thread started 2 yrs 4 months 8 days ago the 10 yr us Treasury yield was 1.73. It subsequently reached 3 pct this year. And now is at abt 2.52 pct. Clearly we called the top of this 30 yr bull mkt. The trough in yield probably was 1.6 pct. Close enough.
with the bond buying program by the Fed reserve ending in Oct and the fed expected to raise short term interest rates next yr the yields expected to rise here on.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
What was the 10-yr US Treasury yield on Sept 30, 1981?
Hattori San, you are correct! It was 15.84% (you even got the 2nd decimal right!!)
What was the 10-yr US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2011?
Sannan San - did I hear 1.73%? You are almost correct - it was 1.72%.
Today (March 19) issue of WSJ states the 30+ year bull market in US Treasuries may be over. The yield jumped last week for 10-yr Treasury from 2.037% to 2.301%, a fulll 0.6% higher than the Sept 2011 low. As the economy picks up, yields are expected to go higher.
UBS has raised its forecast for 2012 end from 2.4% to 2.7. This difference of 0.3% is suspiciously close to the 0.263%yield increase last week.
So far, call has been spot on. Though you didn't expect the yield to shoot back down to the current 1.83 pct.
But the point for long term investment is - recognize overvalued asset class before they burst. And not after. This is not market timing. It is common sense.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
10 yr us treasury bond yield circa 2.1. So the peak in bonds did occur when thread started 2 yr 10 months ago
While the precise timing is fortunate, the overall results based on logic.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
On March 19 2012 with 10 yr yield at 1.72 we called the bottom. It Reached 1.6 pct and is now at 2.415.
Not bad.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
When this thread started 2 yrs 4 months 8 days ago the 10 yr us Treasury yield was 1.73. It subsequently reached 3 pct this year. And now is at abt 2.52 pct. Clearly we called the top of this 30 yr bull mkt. The trough in yield probably was 1.6 pct. Close enough.
with the bond buying program by the Fed reserve ending in Oct and the fed expected to raise short term interest rates next yr the yields expected to rise here on.
Well, things didn't pan out exactly per tbis post. The yield has dropped from 2.52 to 2.45. It has not increased.
But it has stated flat.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
There was a very impressive guess in consult macks show today. Bind expert. His thesis - US 10 yr will drop to 1 pct. And 30 yr to 2.3 pct.
Europe Japan rates low. China will lower interest rates. They all want to see cheap goods. So us is only developed Conlin try with highest interest rates. If global rates.go down us rTes also expected to go down
Will post link next week.
Patience
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
What was the 10-yr US Treasury yield on Sept 30, 1981?
Hattori San, you are correct! It was 15.84% (you even got the 2nd decimal right!!)
What was the 10-yr US Treasury yield on Sep 22, 2011?
Sannan San - did I hear 1.73%? You are almost correct - it was 1.72%.
Today (March 19) issue of WSJ states the 30+ year bull market in US Treasuries may be over. The yield jumped last week for 10-yr Treasury from 2.037% to 2.301%, a fulll 0.6% higher than the Sept 2011 low. As the economy picks up, yields are expected to go higher.
UBS has raised its forecast for 2012 end from 2.4% to 2.7. This difference of 0.3% is suspiciously close to the 0.263%yield increase last week.
I was keeping an eye on your opinion. Four years and three months later, the yield is at 1.65 for us 10 yr treasury. Not much lower than the 1.73 pct in OP. So far, not bad.
But what do you think going forward? What does your crystal ball tell you, mate?
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
You were way off, bud.
But I will give you one point - you did call the bottom in the yield or top in the bond market. The yelled is now at 1.85 pct on 10 yr treasury.
Not too many expected the central bank to keep buying. But yiu got the valuation part right.
Take it easy.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
Five and a half years later and the 10 year Yreasury is still low at 2.07 pct. Can you believe it?
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
Good conversation Southie, have you checked the same numbers for the Chinese Economy?
What do the Chinese Treasuries cost/interest rate wise?
Have you ever wondered who is lending money to the Chinese People/Govt ? their Economy is the fastest growing Economy and I bet they did not get there with HIGH INTEREST rates!
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
Mr President, it is both a pleasure and honor, sir, to have you participate in this thread. Please wait in the lounge area while our staff gets these answers for you. May we get something for your consumption?
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
Your Kindness and Hospitality is overwhelming Mr Financial Guru! I will surely let you know after we get through the niceties and get down to the brass tacks and the Gems of your Maha Financial Wisdom 
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
You got me! Ok, will dig into your questions.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
As they say don’t fight the fed, the basic rule is that money and power is interchangeable and they will always create whatever rules they need to keep the economy and market propped up. In the absence of massive stimulus most major banks and corporations would be insolvent. Sometimes you have to give blood transfusions and the patient gets healthy and starts producing its own blood. BTW I don’t trade anymore, I like real estate better now.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
I feel that the economic growth is a head fake and the yield will still be under 3 percent 5 yrs from now. There doesn’t seem to be any catalyst for economic growth, manufacturing is not coming back, we cant do massive infrastructure spending because of massive federal debt. Chinese and Koreans are getting massively better at technology so technological advantage may fade. I like to see what sector of market may spur the economy in full throttle but I cant see any sector doing that. So how do you see the economy booming in 5 yrs? Add to this possibilities of trade war with China and protectionist policies and prospects of war and disruption of Nafta.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
Also a sustainable growth is not possible without a thriving middle class and under current policies middle class is being hurt again and wealth distribution will be completely out of sync with the wealthiest getting wealthier.
Re: Is this the end of a 30-year bull market?
This prediction was from 4 years back. So my prediction was off! By a lot.
Regarding future interest rates you may be right. But what goes up comes down and vice Versa.