Re: Hamas and Fatah Killing One Another
This may actually turn out to be for the best. With Hamas in control of its power base, the Gaza strip, and Fatah in control of its power base, the West Bank, it will be possible to deal with the two leading Palestinian factions in their own way.
1) Fatah. Fatah's short term negotation objective is a permanent peace settlement. In the past, opposition by Hamas made Fatah unable to realistically negotiate this. Free from linkage to Hamas, Fatah can now receive frozen funding from the West and confiscated taxes from Israel, start re-building some semblance of a state, and negotiate a permanent West Bank + Jerusalem deal. Since "Fatahland" is the most bitterly contested part of the Palestinian Authority's land, this is where negotiation will be hardest; but Fatah is the most willing to Negotiate. Similarly, it will be easier for Fatah to enforce a peace here, since Hamas is weak in the West Bank.
2) Hamas. Hamas's negotiation objective is a short term peace subject to renewal clauses. They've been unable to achieve this because Fatah, as the previously dominant party, instead made negotation only with a long-term view. Israel has also refused to talk publically with Hamas.
Hamas now completely controls Gaza with no Fatah "friendly face". But Israel is responsible for Gaza's water and electricity. Israel will have to publically have links with some aspect of Hamas to continue these utilities, else face immense pressure from its allies for the humanitarian consequences of a cut-off. This also gives Hamas an incentive to on some level at least work with Israel, at least on utilities cooperation. This could be a starting point for moderation on both sides.
My prediction: a three/two-state solution. The Fatah West Bank could settle with Israel, and create a Western-aided state. The Quartet will continue with their short-sighted effort to isolate Hamas rather than make so much as a slight effort to involve Hamas as a partner for any kind of peace; nonetheless, Hamas and Israel could work out a series of ceasefires on their own.
Gaza will exist not as the terrorist state some scare mongers are trying to make; but rather continuing as a giant poor refugee camp, run by Hamas, who'se government will exist solely to distribute the aid given out by a handful of donor states. Western governments (and the voters who choose those governments) will continue to isolate and cripple Gaza's people with sanctions, deliberately choosing to punish the common people for their support of their Islamist government.
Nonetheless, this does not necessarily mean Gaza will be more hellish than the West Bank state. Fatah has always been, and will continue to be, a gang of corrupt thugs. If there is any political party in the world capable of taking an immense amount of aid meant to build a state and completely waste it on themselves instead, it is Fatah. Without Hamas and Israel to label as their enemies, in fact, the heavily armed Fatah factions may turn on each other in a fight over the spoils of peace.
By contrast, Hamas have always had an immense amount of internal discipline that meant that despite the efforts by Western nations and western voters to punish the Palestinian people for electing Hamas, they retained support through ruling better than Fatah. If there is any political party that is capable of successfully running an isolated microstate crippled by sanctions and yet stay popular, it is Hamas.
Ultimately, Palestinian voters will decide which state's model works best. If Fatah somehow turn the West Bank into a successful nation existing peacefully with Israel, it will not be long before pro-Fatah sentiment breaks out in Gaza and Hamas are forced out of power.
But if Fatah manage to make a mess of the West Bank and Hamas at least keeps law and order in Gaza, then the pendulum will swing the other way.
