Maybe he can do something good for the country by taking army out of the politics.
Musharraf’s deputy a reluctant linchpin
No. 2 officer called cautious, respected
By Kim Barker | Tribune foreign correspondent
November 20, 2007
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-pakistan_barker20nov20,1,3699147.story?page=2
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - As embattled President Pervez Musharraf and his political opponents grapple over the country’s future, an equally crucial role may be played by a less known figure – a blunt-talking, chain-smoking, golf-playing general who by all reports would like the army to get out of politics.
Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, 55, Musharraf’s designated No. 2 man in the military, is slotted to be the next army chief of Pakistan when Musharraf gives up his uniform, as he has promised to do. That would give him enormous influence in a country with a history of military rule and coups. A major question is just how loyal he and Pakistan’s other generals are to Musharraf during the current crisis.
Kayani’s importance is such that U.S. envoy John Negroponte, who knows the general from previous intelligence work, met with him twice on his whirlwind visit to Pakistan last weekend.
So far, Kayani and the army are standing cautiously behind Musharraf, even if some soldiers privately disagreed with Musharraf’s decision to declare a state of emergency Nov. 3, analysts and diplomats say. The top generals are more likely to just watch and wait for now; their main concern is whether a deteriorating situation might force them to confront civilian protesters and further undermine the military’s shaken standing.
“I think currently the men are behind him,” said a Western military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. “They’re letting the politics play out.”
By his own schedule, Musharraf came a step closer to resigning as army chief of staff Monday when Pakistan’s Supreme Court dismissed all but one legal challenge against his being president and military commander at the same time. Musharraf suspended the constitution earlier this month on the eve of the expected ruling, which could have declared his presidency invalid.
Monday’s ruling was made by a newly constituted court, which Musharraf packed with sympathetic justices after the emergency decree. It is expected on Thursday to reject the final challenge, which is a minor one.
Considered a key U.S. ally in the war on terror, Musharraf has said he would voluntarily take off his uniform – which he has referred to as a “second skin” – and serve solely as a civilian after the court dismissed the challenges.
Tangled history
For most of Pakistan’s history, the army has been heavily involved in politics. Four army chiefs have seized power in military coups, including Musharraf in 1999.
The army’s reputation has been battered this year. Troops are increasingly disgruntled with fighting their own people as part of Pakistan’s U.S.-backed battle against Islamic radicals near the border with Afghanistan. Since July, when soldiers raided a militant mosque in Islamabad, at least 254 soldiers and paramilitary troops have been killed. Suicide bombings are now a regular event; there have been 28 since July. More than 300 troops have been captured by militants since late August, although most have been released.
But the top military brass will continue to obey Musharraf, unless the streets erupt in violence or Musharraf refuses to step down as army chief in the coming weeks, analysts and retired generals said. The Pakistani army is a disciplined force that would only act if conditions worsened, they said.
Musharraf has nominated all the army’s top brass down to the two-star generals, analysts said. He is related to two of the highest ranking generals through marriage.
Pakistan’s streets have been largely quiet since the emergency. Despite the fact that Musharraf has cracked down on opponents, arresting thousands, his moves have been almost mild compared to those of his military predecessors. Tens of thousands of people rallied in the streets under those regimes, clashing violently with the army.
But in the current crisis, no opposition leader has been able to mobilize supporters. Many people express a dislike for Musharraf and what he has done, but they also say they don’t like his political opponents enough to risk clashing with police.
“The only thing that will compel Kayani to take over is if there was a massive street movement, and the civil police couldn’t control it,” said a former top official in Musharraf’s government who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.
“The argument within the establishment, which is very convincing for them, is that if they [the establishment] were so unpopular there would be civil strife, massive street demonstrations. That’s what keeps Musharraf going.”
Broken promises
Pakistani analysts are divided on whether Musharraf will actually leave his army post. Twice before, he has failed to honor promises to step down as chief. But many feel that Musharraf will have no choice because of his dwindling support.
“I get a feeling there’s a point of no return – the army will not accept him in uniform any longer,” said Talat Masood, a retired army general and military analyst.
Musharraf’s anointed successor in the army is Kayani, the universally well-regarded, pro-Western general who once ran the country’s most powerful spy agency.
Kayani is close not just to Musharraf, but also to his political rival, Benazir Bhutto, serving as her deputy military secretary when she was prime minister.
Kayani also is friendly with U.S. officials, including Negroponte, largely through the general’s former job atop the Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency.
Since his appointment last month as vice chief, Kayani, considered to be extremely loyal to Musharraf, has tried to focus on the war on terror, especially in remote tribal areas, and improve the army’s sinking morale, analysts and Western officials said. He has largely ignored politics.
Kayani “is a military man,” said a Western diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. “He’s very professional. And he’s extremely concerned about the low morale – and it is very low.”
Those who have worked with Kayani said he is extremely cautious and dismissed reports that he would stage any coup while Musharraf is chief.
“He doesn’t come off as a reckless fellow,” said the former top official in Musharraf’s government. “He comes off as a cool and collected fellow. He’s certainly not a commando.”
Yet retired army officials and analysts say that despite the many powerful army commanders who run key agencies, everyone would look to Kayani if the top brass were forced to consider a potential takeover.
“God forbid, if that happens, it would not happen without his consent,” said one retired officer who is loyal to Musharraf and requested anonymity.
Its say “by all reports he would like army out of the politics”, and thats not a bad thing for the country. 
