Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

If the mood in Mumbai is any gauge, the unravelling of the Narendra Modi’s political mystique has begun . Nice analysis by Kumar Ketkar.

Moditva’s fading echo in Mumbai
Kumar Ketkar

Posted online: Friday, December 07, 2007 If the mood in this metropolis is any gauge, the unravelling of the Gujarat CM’s political mystique has begun

Kumar Ketkar

Today, when Narendra Modi is in the news for his ugly election rhetoric at Mangrol, Mumbaikars remember his address at Mumbai’s Shivaji Park in January 2003. It was vintage Modi alright: he placed all those who attack Hindutva on a par with Pakistan and exhorted his audience to “use all means” to undermine those who attack it. From the crowds who came to listen to him, it was clear that the Gujarat chief minister had a significant support base in Mumbai, what with its large proportion of Gujaratis. The question is whether that support base is growing or waning. I would argue that the decline has begun.

But first let us briefly look at the larger historical canvas. Most Mumbaikars, who are primarily from the Marathi community, regard the Gujaratis in the city as businessmen — entrepreneurs, traders, stock brokers. Quite often, the Marwaris are also clubbed along with the Gujaratis. Although Mumbai is known nationally and globally as a city that is driven by business, there is also a strong socio-cultural undercurrent that regards such activities with disdain. This is a legacy of the socialist-communist trade union movement which dominated the organised industrial life of Mumbai until the mid-eighties. The Marathi proletariat and intelligentsia shared this perception and sometimes exhibited a quiet but distinct resentment towards the Gujaratis/Marwaris. What fostered the hostility was the fact that most of the textile mills were owned by Gujaratis/Marwaris, as indeed most of the shops, particularly ‘kirana’ stores. Gujaratis/Marwaris also dominated the stock market. On Dalal Street, the lingua franca was always Gujarati.

There are about 35 to 40 lakh Gujaratis in Mumbai. Since the current population of the city is around 1.5 crore, this means that a little less than 25 per cent are Gujaratis. When the state of Maharashtra was carved out in 1960, with Mumbai as its capital, the percentage of the Gujaratis was 35 per cent.

However, the perception that the entire Gujarati community is ‘business-minded’ is a stereotype and like all stereotypes misleading. Equally misleading is the idea that the Gujaratis in Mumbai constitute a ‘Little Gujarat’ in the metropolis. Those who argue that Mumbai’s Gujaratis are partial to Modi, base their argument on this false premise. The fact is that the Gujarati community is not socially or economically homogenous, although it may appear so to those watching mass garba performances during the navaratras. The popular image of the community is essentially that of the middle-class Gujarati. But there are also Gujaratis who belong to the lower caste and work as safai kamgars (primarily Meghwals). Their number is not small. Then there are thousands of Gujarati workers and white-collar employees who work in a variety of trading establishments. There are the craftsmen working in the diamond industry. The Gujarati middle class, perceived as business-minded, constitute only about 50 per cent of the community.

When it comes to politics, the Gujarati community is also not as homogenous as is generally believed. For instance, it is not generally known that the Patel community, even in Mumbai, is disturbed by Modi’s authoritarian style. The Gujaratis in Mumbai who have come from Saurashtra, and elsewhere, tend to follow political developments back home. There is, at present, tremendous discontent over Modi’s politics among Mumbai’s Saurashtra Gujaratis.

The relationship that Gujaratis have with Mumbai goes back into history. The post-Independence years saw a rise in migration from Gujarat to Mumbai, with people coming in search of jobs or business opportunities. That trend slowed down a little after the formation of two states. During the past 25 years, more Gujaratis have perhaps migrated to the US than to Mumbai.

The city was and continues to be bilingual, with its first language Marathi; its second, Gujarati. The state also had its fair share of Gujarati politicians, foremost among them the redoubtable Morarji Desai. It must also be remembered that the Gujaratis in Mumbai had not demanded a separate state for the Gujarati-speaking people. The demand for Maharashtra, with Mumbai as the inseparable part of the state, was that of the Marathi-speaking people.

In the Bombay of the fifties and the sixties, the traditional rivalry between the Marathi and Gujarati communities got defined along political lines. The Congress was seen as representing the interests of the Gujarati trader and industrialist — the ‘capitalist class’ — and the unionised Marathi community was mobilised under the communist banner. This underwent a sea-change in the eighties and the nineties. Following the alliance of the BJP and Shiv Sena, the Marathi and Gujarati communities came together politically.

The Congress party may not be a favourite with Mumbai’s Gujarati middle class today, but at one point in time —before their political migration to the BJP in the nineties — Mumbai’s Gujaratis had claimed the Gandhi-Nehru-Patel legacy as their own. Over the years, the Sangh Parivar succeeded in appropriating Vallabhbhai Patel’s image, making it appear as if the iron man was a disciple of Sriguru Golwalkar! When the neo-Hindutva movement became strident in the late eighties and early nineties — along with the Ayodhya agitation — Gujaratis in Mumbai, with their NRI counterparts and compatriots in the state, turned to militant Hindutva. The decade which began in 1992 — the Babri demolition — and ended with the 2002 Gujarat pogrom under Modi, saw the high tide of this militant phase. But as time went by, things got far more complex. Today, while the Congress continues to be viewed with scepticism, there is palpable discontent with the negative aspects of hardline Hindutva politics, and its proponents like Modi.

History teaches us that those who practise extreme politics end up digging their own graves. Among Mumbai’s Gujaratis, the disenchantment with Moditva is palpable. He may or may not win the December election, but if the mood in Mumbai is any gauge, the unravelling of the man’s political mystique has begun.

http://www.indianexpress.com/story/247413.html

The writer is editor, ‘Loksatta’ [email protected]

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

Frankly speaking I hope he wins. I am so sick of governments pandering to so called minorities excessively - whether muslims christians or those trillions of scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, backward castes, most backward castes and other backward castes! this is nuts. All it has done is ensure that caste identifies are preserved so that these benefits are accrued!

I am not that worried about Brahmins - in spite of being 5% or less of the population, we don't enjoy any such 'minority' benefits but are made to so suffer these huge anti-Brahmin quotas. However with smarts and hard work we have, we are and we will keep ahead anyway. Because quotas and reservations simply make peopel less qualitatively.

As long as it is disproven that Modi was not behind the Godhra riot as some people have accused, I think he should win

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

Modi is the modern day hindu hitler !!!

Those of you who are complaining about malaysia and then support modi are one fat hypocrites.

2000 Muslims were burned to death by hindu mobs in gujdrat, Muslims in gujrat live in virtual ghettos and muslims are victims of fake police encounters.

In Malaysia there are no anti-hindu riots. There are no hindu ghettos.


Fury over Gujarat leader speech

A number of political parties in India have protested against alleged remarks made by a politician during an election meeting in western Gujarat state.
Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi's alleged comments were over a man killed by the police in the state in 2005.

In April, three top policemen were charged with the murder of Sohrabuddin Sheikh, a Muslim civilian.

They are alleged to have attempted to cover up the killing by claiming he belonged to an Islamic militant group.

Mr Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government then admitted that the missing wife of Mr Sheikh, Kausar Bi, was also killed and her body was burnt.

Indian media has been reporting that Mr Modi during a election meeting in the state on Tuesday appeared to have "justified" the killing of the couple.

'Nothing wrong'

A BJP spokesman VK Malhotra has denied this, telling The Hindu newspaper that Mr Modi had only said that "if a terrorist is killed in an encounter [with the police] there was nothing wrong".

India's Election Commission has sought a report from local authorities on what Mr Modi exactly said at the meeting to determine whether he violated the poll code of conduct.

Gujarat goes to elections next week.

The Congress party has condemned Mr Modi's alleged remarks.

"The chief minister has virtually owed up to a murder and he has declared that he has a licence to kill," party spokesman Abhishek Singhvi has said.

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

Planned mass genocidal campaign by hindu gujrat government against muslims.


Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

If he does, it will be a sad comment on the state of Indian democracy.

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

And how exactly do you guys know? has he been convicted in any court? If evidence i brought and he is convicted then I'll be the first person to call for his punishment. But the whole muslim world seems to have decided that evidence and proof is unnecessary in this matter.

Every time I ask someone for proof about Modi's involvement all they can point out is someone else or someother group saying so.

This raises the suspicion that because he is one of the very few politicians who doesn't mind openly saying muslims and christians are wrong when they want special privileges constantly, that muslim groups are targetting him this way.

BTW if I were voting in Guajarath I will not be voting for him but that is for a different set of reasons - as a leader of all people a Chief Minister of Indian state must strive to bring all communities together. Modi has been immature in his speeches and ineffective in this respect.

but that is a far cry from accusing him of being a hitler ...particularly when one of the beacons of muslims these days has denied holocaust ever occurred and a bunch in and out of Iran takes him seriously on this

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

/\/\and these people never talk of godhra carnage.....because they were mere un-beleivers.

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

what happened in godha was an accidental fire according to the INDIAN GOVERNMENT !!!

click on this link to see indian goverment report from BBC saying godhra fire was started by electrical shock accident and not by any “muslim mob” BBC NEWS | South Asia | India train fire 'not mob attack'

what happened in godhra is sad and any human life is important, hindu, muslim,…

but the actions of hindu mobs by burning 2000 muslims alive in gujrat was no accident

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

^^what about kashmiri pandits?? thousands of them are killed and lakhs of them are living as refugees. no one talks abt them. All you know is 2000 muslims slaughtered.
I am not at all justifying the riots.

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

The Indian Govt has never made such a statement. I appreciate the tactics and manipulation of advertisement based media in reaching out one sided conclusions…and the reports of the same media are whole heartedly rejected and given a biased color if not in favor.

I wonder how the majority in a theocratic state would react if the minority dares to challenge it as per Godhra style.

Millions of Hindus have accepted the guilt of Gujarat carnage…..Godhra or no Godhra Hindus had no right to attack and kill Muslims.

Let us find out if our so-called minority community has ever accepted the mistakes of past!

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

Here are excerpts from Pak Brave Heart quotes…I doubt if he has analysed this news item

‘Survivor accounts speak of a stone-throwing mob attacking the train. But doubts have persisted over how the fire started.’

So a mob was busy in stone pelting at the burning bogies full of passangers, ladies and children.

How Pak Brave Heart can explain this phenomenon???

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

And let us talk of Modi......he has succeeded in polarizing Hindu vote against secular and non-secular parties. In fact the other parties have become a puppet in his hand in his mission of attracting the Hindu vote.

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

I'm amazed. Who made you disbelieve that?

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

You are! Read your post again.
Why are you worried about Kashmiri pandits? If your own government care less for them. The Government, which is so humble to minorities and denounce racism and religious blasphemy.

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

First, show us valid proof on arrests regarding Samjoota Express. And name me few of those culprits, then we can discuss this as well.

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

seriously my friend, nobody has offered any proof; nobody has convicted him and nobody has therefore convinced me.

I actually took the trouble of reading through several investigative reports including tehelka. Found that lot of people did lot of things wrong, including one of the investigators, but they did not lead to Modi unless we start with the assumption that Modi did it.

As I said earlier, Modi has failed in bringing community together and so should not be renewed. But the level of extra-judicial hatred being heaped on him without/before offering proof and indictment makes me think otherwise

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

StirCasey, I dont know what you believe. But there has been a lot of proof to make majority understand Modi has directly or indirectly mastermind this slaugther.

Have a read on this following document about the Genocide of 2002:

[quote]

Numerous inquiries and commissions, such as the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) of India, have held that Narendra Modi, as the chief executive of the state, had complete command over the police and other law enforcement machinery during February 28 through March 02, 2002. They have condemned the role of the Government of Gujarat headed by Modi in providing leadership and material support in the politically motivated attacks on minorities in Gujarat. The European Union, and every major Indian and international human rights organization: Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Commonwealth Initiative for Human Rights, Citizen’s Initiative, People's Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL), People's Union for Democratic Rights (PUDR), have condemned the Gujarat violence, and pointed to the complicity of the Government of Gujarat in the execution of the event. Coverage in the Indian and international press, including the New York Times (July 27, 2002), Washington Post (June 03, 2002), and Boston Globe (July 12, 2002), reported the failure of the state machinery in Gujarat.Former President of India, Kocheril Raman Narayanan, stated that there was a “conspiracy” between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) governments at the Centre and in Gujarat behind the riots of 2002 in Gujarat. President Narayanan said: “There has been government participation in Gujarat riots. I had sent several letters to the then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, and also talked to him. But he did not do anything effective," Former President Narayanan said he had directed sending in the army to Gujarat to stop the violence. "How many instances of the serial killings could have been avoided if the Army had resorted to shooting against rioters? The slaughter could have been avoided if the Army was given the freedom to stem the riots".

[/quote]

This is just one of many articles regarding this atrocities occured the year 2002.

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

Gold rush to India’s Gujarat
By Sudha Ramachandran

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IK27Df01.html

BANGALORE - The northwestern state of Gujarat - notorious for
horrific communal violence in 2002 in which over a thousand people,
mainly Muslims, were killed - has emerged as India’s favored
destination for investments. Its dazzling economic success is being
highlighted by Chief Minister Narendra Modi in his election campaign
as he makes a bid for a third straight term in office in upcoming
assembly elections in the state.

According to a recent study by the Reserve Bank of India, the
country’s central bank, Gujarat stood first in the country with
investments of US$17.8 billion in 2006-07 or 25.8% of India’s total
investment of $69 billion during the year.

The southern state of Andhra Pradesh stood a distant second having
attracted $6.1 billion in 2006-07. Last year’s leader in the race for
investment - Maharashtra - slipped to third place. Gujarat moved up
from second place in 2005-06 having tripled its investments in a
year.

Gujarat stands fourth in the country with regard to the number of new
projects it attracted. The number dipped from 95 new projects in 2005-
06 to 86 in 2006-07. However, it more than made up for the dip in the
number of projects by increasing the average investment per project
dramatically from $64.5 million in 2005-06 to $213 million the
following year.

Situated in western India and bordering Pakistan, Gujarat is among
India’s most prosperous states. Its per capita GDP is 2.4 times the
Indian average. It is India’s most industrialized state and accounts
for 20% of the country’s industrial output, 25% of its textile
production, 40% of its pharmaceutical production and 47% of its
petrochemical production. The state accounts for 21% of India’s
exports.

Gujarat’s economic success has come despite serious disasters -
natural and manmade - that the state has suffered over the past 15
years. In 1992, the city of Surat - the center of India’s diamond
cutting and polishing industry - was hit by a plague epidemic. Then
in January 2001, an earthquake measuring 7.9 on the Richter scale
flattened Gujarat’s Kutch region. A year later, the state was rocked
by Hindu-Muslim riots that were aided and abetted by sections in the
Gujarat government including Modi.

But business analysts point out that Gujarat has in fact reaped
fortune from adversity. This is evident from Kutch’s spectacular rise
as India’s new gateway to riches.

As part of its efforts to rebuild quake-torn Kutch - 95% of Kutch
district was destroyed by the earthquake - the government granted a
series of concessions, including a tax holiday to attract industrial
houses and corporations lined up to take advantage of them. Today
Kutch is at the forefront of Gujarat’s economic boom.
A report in Times of India describes the Gulf of Kutch as
India’s “Gulf of Riches”. Four top business houses - Reliance
Industries, Essar Group, Adani Group and Tata Group, have invested
about $34 billion along the Gulf of Kutch’s 700-kilometer long
coastline. Other corporates, which had invested over $3.26 billion
since the 2001 earthquake have investments worth another $19.5
billion in the pipeline. Ten special economic zones (SEZs) near
Jamnagar, a 4000-megawatt power project and five private shipyards
are coming up. And massive expansion is being undertaken of the
Mundra and Kandla ports.

Gujarat’s 41 ports handle 80% of India’s port traffic and 20% of its
cargo. It is estimated that by 2015, Gujarat’s ports will handle 39%
of India’s cargo.

Not only has Gujarat unseated Maharashtra as India’s number one
investment destination but also, it is threatening to dislodge
Mumbai, Maharashtra’ s capital and the financial and business capital
of India, as the trade gateway to the country.

Gujarat is aggressively promoting four private ports - Mundra,
Pipapav, Kandla and Dholera. And Mundra port where Indian Oil
Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum are setting up giant oil storage
capacities has already emerged as India’s largest private oil storage
tank farm. Sixty percent of India’s coal imports enter via Mundra
port. Mundra’s importance is likely to soar further with the
completion of mega power plants being set up by Adanis and Tatas.

The volume of cargo handled by Mundra and Kandla ports alone has
outstripped that handled by Mumbai’s ports - the Mumbai Port Trust
and the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust.

And now Gujarat is nursing ambitions of dislodging Mumbai as India’s
financial hub. Its government recently announced the setting up of an
international financial services center, the Gujarat International
Finance Tech-City with an investment outlay of $6 billion in
Ahmedabad.

“Gujarat has emerged as India’s special economic zone [SEZ],” Modi
boasted in his speech at a recent meeting of the World Economic Forum
at Dalian in China, referring to huge success that Gujarat has
experienced in attracting domestic and foreign investment.

Gujarat’s experience with setting up SEZs has been pretty smooth.
Unlike in other parts of the country where land acquisition for SEZs
has encountered massive protests, in Gujarat where 33 SEZ proposals
have been approved since the state’s SEZ Act was passed in 2004, the
process has been largely trouble-free. Barring the case of Reliance’s
SEZ near Jamnagar, where farmers went to court, and some protest in
Por near Vadodara, Gujarat has seen little protest over land
acquisition.

This is because Gujarat’s port-led development of SEZs involves
setting up SEZs along its 1,600-kilometer- long coastline. SEZs are
located on large tracts of fallow and saline land in Kutch and
Saurashtra. This is arid land that had no takers earlier; but the
SEZs now hold out the promise of economic activity and are welcomed
by the locals.

The Mundra SEZ, for instance, is being built on land virtually unfit
for human habitation and it has brightened economic prospects
immensely. A plot here which might have fetched a price of $2,500-
$5,000 a few years ago now sells at $250,000. Farmers are eager to
sell their land. This is not the case in other parts of India where
SEZ developers are eyeing rich agricultural land that farmers are
reluctant to sell.

Another reason for the trouble-free land acquisition in Gujarat is
that the government has left it to the SEZ promoters to purchase land
directly from farmers. So, the farmer can demand market price for his
property and not settle for the lower prices offered by the state
when it acquires land.

In his election campaign Modi has been boasting of his government’s
achievements on the economic front. His political opponents argue
that his government has merely built on a trend that was set in
motion two decades ago.

His critics point out that Gujarat’s booming economy might be
generating millionaires every month but inequality is increasing as
well. Only pockets in Gujarat are glowing, they argue. Infrastructure
in cities is improving. Roads are being widened, malls and
multiplexes are mushrooming and flyovers and mass rapid transit
systems are being built in cities like Ahmedabad. But conditions
outside these cities are poor. Unemployment is rising as small-scale
industries shut down and capital-intensive projects are not filling
the gap.

But even Modi’s worst critics will find it hard to dispute the fact
that he has given investment a safe port in Gujarat.

If only he would make Gujarat’s religious minorities feel the same
way.

Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/research er based in
Bangalore.

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

What do you see in this very section you have quoted that shows any proof of Modi triggering the attacks? Also please provide a source so I can look up authenticity of the references the 'report' makes.

As I have said before, I am not a Modi fan and wouldn't vote for him because under him even though the state has made fantastic progress, he has to take responsibility as leader who failed to maintain communal harmony. But that does not mean he can be accused of inciting a pogrom ...not without proof. It has been years and nobody has been able to produce any other than quoting each other!

Re: Will Narendra Modi win elections in Gujarat?

He was in command of police at that time. He was the one, who had power over all situation. Not to forget he had been even accused of nourish hatred by his speeches right after the train incident. Further more people had to keep shut because hindu radicals (including hindutva) threatened to kill their families If they dont do so. There are numerous reports regarding these matters. Proof being destroyed the very next day by the same radicals even these has been reported true.

StirCasey, you can not speak MOdi free of these crimes on one hand, but resist on OBL to be the mastermind behind 911 on the other hand. There is no "real" proof of OBL being guilty.
So do some justice.

I downloaded this document some years ago. Don't know the link anymore.