Re: Where is oil heading to?
Crude price hovering around $27-$28... could this be the bottom of the barrel? :D
Re: Where is oil heading to?
buying hand over fist.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Well atleast now you can rub enough oil over your belly button :bravo: @GLITTER_BOMB
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Unfortunately, oil stocks rose today. Thalaiyule ayutthu
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Crude price hovering around $27-$28... could this be the bottom of the barrel? :D
buying hand over fist.
Well played, gentlemen. You are now inducted into the Nuggets Hall of Fame.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Nuggets Hall of Fame? Nearto: closeto:
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Thank you, good chapter. Welcome back to Business section. We highly value your input - though at times difficult to fully comprehend what is being inputtted.
Question for you - is the oil barrel half full or half empty?
Re: Where is oil heading to?
The way oil prices have skidded in past few months/weeks currently the crude is hovering around 40 and seems like 40 is the resistance/support level. With OPEC determined to drive Russia and American drilling out, how long do you all believe oil will stay below 50? In coming few weeks where do you see the prices for crude?
Long time has been passed since this discussion was started. But still the oil prices are less than 50.
WTI Crude Oil Price: 32.19
Brent Crude Oil: 32.18
Source: google
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Crude price hovering around $27-$28... could this be the bottom of the barrel? :D
No. It could go down further to $20 a barrel or lower.
I do not think that crude oil would ever recover to $50 dollar a barrel. Most likely, world would see crude oil hovering between $20 - $30 a barrel during next decade (until 2025).
What I believe is not wild speculation, but there are many valid reasons I took into account before giving a future price to oil.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
No. It could go down further to $20 a barrel or lower.
I do not think that crude oil would ever recover to $50 dollar a barrel. Most likely, world would see crude oil hovering between $20 - $30 a barrel during next decade (until 2025).
What I believe is not wild speculation, but there are many valid reasons I took into account before giving a future price to oil.
A post from Statistician Sa1eem without statistics is like jal bin machli, nrityu bin paani
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Well played, gentlemen. You are now inducted into the Nuggets Hall of Fame.
There was some controversy over this induction considering the swoon today. But we think the call was spot on and the induction well deserved.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
A post from Statistician Sa1eem without statistics is like jal bin machli, nrityu bin paani
Bhai jaan, I am no Statistician. I am just putting down my analysis using factors that looks fit to me. :)
Anyhow, when we predict, it is called probability or likely chance of something to happen, that can never be certainty. Anyhow, prediction can be 'speculation without any reason' and that is questionable. When there are valid reasons for speculation than even though there is no certainty, one can say that speculation is fair.
Price of any commodity: Depends on supply, demand, and alternatives.
For Oil:
1: Supply is increasing and chances are that it would keep increasing due to new discoveries, as well as technology to harness Shale oil and Sand oil is getting cheaper, plus Iranian oil would enter the market too.
2: Alternative energies (Solar, wind, gas) is getting cheaper and use is
getting widely spread.
3: Scientific advances has made alternative energy cheaper, plus green house effect is making countries give incentives to alternative energy, means lower demand for oil. Harness of energy from water flow, that is cheapest way to get electricity is going to get more popular with time.
4: Use of energy is becoming efficient.
4a: Oil is used in producing electricity and today turbine is becoming more efficient, hence less oil could produce same amount of electricity.
4b: One of the major use of oil is running vehicles. Today, vehicles are becoming more efficient. Car giving 'miles per gallon' today is almost twice as much as it was for similar 'cc' car built 15 years ago.
4c: One can see increasing hybrid cars, that uses much less oil than non-hybrid cars.
etc ...
All that means, not only increase of oil production due to shale and sand oils in market, new oil production from existing wells and newly found wells ... but at the same time efficient use (higher percentage conversion rate from oil to needed energy) is making demand of oil lower.
Since efficiency in use of oil is increasing fast and would keep increasing, plus use of alternative energy increasing, especially renewable energy (nuclear, solar, wind, water, etc), I believe that demand of oil in future would decrease further and all that is bad news for oil price.
A lot also depends on growth rate of China and India, but that is stagnating anyhow. Another factor was how oil producing countries would cooperate with each other, and that is unlikely too.
Further, new developments in energy sector has put 'price lid' over oil price, that is cost of alternative energy to replace oil, and value of that 'price lid' is coming down fast with time, as technology is getting better.
So ... Looking at all these factors (plus few more I am avoiding to keep things short), I believe that it would be an achievement if oil would ever reach $50 a barrel. I believe, present price lid to keep shale and sand oil at bay is around $50 a barrel, that could go down with time. I also believe that USA would keep producing shale oil to stay self-sufficient in oil, so government may subsidise this sector, that would eventually going to make harnessing 'shale oil' more cheaper). In my opinion, $20 to $30 is reasonable stabilising price.
[Waisay ... I could be wrong too. :)]
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Bhai jaan, I am no Statistician. I am just putting down my analysis using factors that looks fit to me. :)
Anyhow, when we predict, it is called probability or likely chance of something to happen, that can never be certainty. Anyhow, prediction can be 'speculation without any reason' and that is questionable. When there are valid reasons for speculation than even though there is no certainty, one can say that speculation is fair.
Price of any commodity: Depends on supply, demand, and alternatives.
For Oil:
1: Supply is increasing and chances are that it would keep increasing due to new discoveries, as well as technology to harness Shale oil and Sand oil is getting cheaper, plus Iranian oil would enter the market too.
2: Alternative energies (Solar, wind, gas) is getting cheaper and use is getting widely spread.
3: Scientific advances has made alternative energy cheaper, plus green house effect is making countries give incentives to alternative energy, means lower demand for oil. Harness of energy from water flow, that is cheapest way to get electricity is going to get more popular with time.
4: Use of energy is becoming efficient.
4a: Oil is used in producing electricity and today turbine is becoming more efficient, hence less oil could produce same amount of electricity.
4b: One of the major use of oil is running vehicles. Today, vehicles are becoming more efficient. Car giving 'miles per gallon' today is almost twice as much as it was for similar 'cc' car built 15 years ago.
4c: One can see increasing hybrid cars, that uses much less oil than non-hybrid cars.
etc ...
All that means, not only increase of oil production due to shale and sand oils in market, new oil production from existing wells and newly found wells ... but at the same time efficient use (higher percentage conversion rate from oil to needed energy) is making demand of oil lower.
Since efficiency in use of oil is increasing fast and would keep increasing, plus use of alternative energy increasing, especially renewable energy (nuclear, solar, wind, water, etc), I believe that demand of oil in future would decrease further and all that is bad news for oil price.
A lot also depends on growth rate of China and India, but that is stagnating anyhow. Another factor was how oil producing countries would cooperate with each other, and that is unlikely too.
Further, new developments in energy sector has put 'price lid' over oil price, that is cost of alternative energy to replace oil, and value of that 'price lid' is coming down fast with time, as technology is getting better.
So ... Looking at all these factors (plus few more I am avoiding to keep things short), I believe that it would be an achievement if oil would ever reach $50 a barrel. I believe, present price lid to keep shale and sand oil at bay is around $50 a barrel, that could go down with time. I also believe that USA would keep producing shale oil to stay self-sufficient in oil, so government may subsidise this sector, that would eventually going to make harnessing 'shale oil' more cheaper). In my opinion, $20 to $30 is reasonable stabilising price.
[Waisay ... I could be wrong too. :)]
Top post, Saleem bhai. Thank you for taking the time to write such a thoughtful analysis. You covered most points. One missing - storage is at nearly full capacity in land. And tankers in the ocean are also filling up rapidly.
Re Nat gas, I agree it is cheap in the US. But it is my understanding in developing countries Nat gas may not be as cheap. Hence for electricity production, displacement of oil by Nat gas may be confined to the US.
China slowdown is bound to reverse sometime. And as Africa and other emerging markets attain their potential, they may pick up some of the slack in global growth.
With cheaper fuel, in the US people are starting to buy gas guzzlers. That could be a catalyst.
Overall the bottom is near. Who knows exactly where it is. Probably 26 set last Wednesday, which our recent Hall of Famers called hand over fist.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
ConocoPhillips was down 9.5 pct Monday Jan 25 to 34.2. Not quite to 32.7 low set last Wednesday Jan 20 when out HoF duo called the low. Had put a limit order at 33.5. At the open, I upped it to the market price of 33.85. As soon as the stick was bought it nosedive to 33.47! And then closed at about 35.3.
I think I am now done buying oil stocks. (Unless oil falls below Jan 20 level of 26.55
Re: Where is oil heading to?
so where be the pundits calling for $20 or lower oil?? :D
Re: Where is oil heading to?
The pundits be absconding.
Oil nearly doubled from the 26.5 low.
What goes down eventually comes up. Unless it stays down. A truly oily saying.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Looks like oil will fall below $40 again !!
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Brent is at 46.8. US at 45.5.
Who knows. Have completed the buys in oil. Now a waiting game. Sell when oil reaches 70.