Re: Where is oil heading to?
I'm looking at KMI, SE, SCTY, OKE, HAL, NOV, DNOW, CLNE. Most arent even oil but got beaten down with it. Time for a few sips here and there.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
With OPEC not agreeing to cut production, instead raised ceiling for production, it appears oil's bottom price has not been reached yet and investors in oil/related-companies are in for a longer run and if global economy (read China) does not heat up until then the "long" may extend to 2-3 years.
Your thoughts?
Was US negotiations with Iran to "be-friend" for the same reasons? To bring more oil in market to drop oil prices?
Re: Where is oil heading to?
OPEC aka Saudis are sitting on a stockpile of cash, they can afford to choke out oil producers for years like this. Iran has never agreed at the OPEC to do this and every single time has blamed Saudis and their chamchas openly at these OPEC meetings calling for production hikes.
In the end, it is smaller producer countries like Venezuela that hugely rely on their oil exports that are hit the hardest. Poor suckers cant afford to wait it out. Quite the opposite - they will pump even more out now so they can keep earning enough forex as before, and will run out of oil sooner.
And then the Saudis will milk it.
I'd load up on Nat. gas US stocks now.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
I'm looking at KMI, SE, SCTY, OKE, HAL, NOV, DNOW, CLNE. Most arent even oil but got beaten down with it. Time for a few sips here and there.
I assume kmi is kinder Morgan mlp for pipeline?
Haliburton may he a good idea. No idea what the other ticker symbols are.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Checked kmi
From memory -
Debt 40 billion dollars
Cash 0.3 billion
Goodwill 24 billion
Other intangible assets about 4 billion
At some point 5gee have to be written off
Hard assets - plan and equipment about 17 billion
Revenue abt 17 billion
Operating income 4 billion
So even though it's at multi year low, it's balance sheet scares me.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Haliburton balance sheet
7.8 bill debt
2.3 bill Cash
Operating income 4 bill.
FCF 1 billion
Stringer balance sheet.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Tangentially related. An iron ore mine in Australia is recently ooerating. Will flood world markets with even more iron ore.
So how low iron ore go
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Not saying stock with poor balance sheet can't go up. For me, the risk reward equation does not compute. Would rather go into beaten up stocks with healthy balance sheet. Even if potential gains won't match those with poor balance sheet. Because the latter can go broke also.
It is all about ones risk tolerance. IMO, if one puts money in such stocks one should be prepared to lose all of it. Then any gains plus return of capital is a bonus.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
southie, you are right about KMI's balance sheet. their assets section is opaque, and debt to cash is nasty. but they have a slew of projects lined up/in backlog for the next 5 years, their recent quarter earnings and guidance looks good (take with a grain of salt, of course).
their prospects hinge greatly on nat. gas. if global, mexico and US demand for NG rises, KMI will do well. if NG goes cold, they will probably have to spin off their business into the four companies they are.
they were paying a decent dividend, but recently said they might not keep this up with all the backlog affecting cashflow. made a lot of income portfolio folks dump the stock, thats when the price took a hit (or so i think).
bottomline - fundamentals are questionable but always have been so, business prospects look okay, "too big to fail" and recently fallen out of favor with the dividend club. risky, but big upside. i'm buying in a small stake.
as for HAL, its balance sheet isnt too bad (by my standards :D), and looks more or less how its looked in the past even with higher stock prices, and higher oil prices - mostly by some serious cost cutting measures. again, for me personally, worth nibbling on as a potential value play.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
I see where you are coming from. The stock prices are at multi year lows. Looks like based on what you stated, kmi probably avoids bankruptcy. In that case, upside is high. Especially as you stated due to the scare re dividends knocking price lower for kmi.
And yes HAL balance sheet relatively much stronger!
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Read in WSJ that storage capacity in US getting nearly full. One thing I didn't know - among many other things - oil is also stored in tankers once storage capacity is full. Based on oil tanker storage price, one can estimate oil inventory levels.
A Google search should provide info on this rate. Our staff is on it.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Oil is still on slippery slope
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Oil is still on slippery slope
Oil is always slippery.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Looking at BP TOT CVX COP RDS.A XOM to add to positions. Baby steps.
BP was down 4 pct. Picked it up at 31.24 (added to position established earlier at circa 33 have to check). The multi year and 52 week low is 29.8 I think.
Baby steps.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
southie, you are right about KMI's balance sheet. their assets section is opaque, and debt to cash is nasty. but they have a slew of projects lined up/in backlog for the next 5 years, their recent quarter earnings and guidance looks good (take with a grain of salt, of course).
their prospects hinge greatly on nat. gas. if global, mexico and US demand for NG rises, KMI will do well. if NG goes cold, they will probably have to spin off their business into the four companies they are.
they were paying a decent dividend, but recently said they might not keep this up with all the backlog affecting cashflow. made a lot of income portfolio folks dump the stock, thats when the price took a hit (or so i think).
bottomline - fundamentals are questionable but always have been so, business prospects look okay, "too big to fail" and recently fallen out of favor with the dividend club. risky, but big upside. i'm buying in a small stake.
as for HAL, its balance sheet isnt too bad (by my standards :D), and looks more or less how its looked in the past even with higher stock prices, and higher oil prices - mostly by some serious cost cutting measures. again, for me personally, worth nibbling on as a potential value play.
KMI did exactly as u stated - cut dividends - stick got hit some more mon and Tuesday I think. Then revounded last couple ofndays. So I think you did alright - don't want to jinx you though.
A joker in street.com was asking people to get in at higher leveos. And lost his marbles t the bottom and asked people to sell. Will post link.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
BP was down 4 pct. Picked it up at 31.24 (added to position established earlier at circa 33 have to check). The multi year and 52 week low is 29.8 I think.
Baby steps.
BP up 1.7 pct with 7.8 pct div. No complaints.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Crude reached 7 yr low today. Picked up some more rds-a and TOT.
No idea where they wouod end up. But these are low low prices. Rooting for oil to keep going down.
Note that Brent and WTI are both close to each other us lifted export ban.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
OP, when you open the thread Nov 20 2015 crude at 40. Currently tot futures are 32.5. So good call.
The above poster may get his wish today, as oil futures dropped from 34 to.32.5 I expect more limit orders to hit. Fasten your seatbelts.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
In the morning old futures had recovered to 33.5. Picked up more BP at 29.38.
Baby steps. Hoping for more pullbacks.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Royal dutch got clobbered last two day. Will wait one week. And if it keeps getting beaten uo, will add. Ditto COP.