The way oil prices have skidded in past few months/weeks currently the crude is hovering around 40 and seems like 40 is the resistance/support level. With OPEC determined to drive Russia and American drilling out, how long do you all believe oil will stay below 50? In coming few weeks where do you see the prices for crude?
Re: Where is oil heading to?
I heard the price is getting up after Paris attacks.
Honestly i could never understand very well how the oil price is getting so low. But one thing for sure, there is not a single factor that by itself determines it. Its like a algorithm of many reasons that endup with a certain price and in this case a slope downwards.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
i dont think there is any point in trying to predict where the price of anything is headed in the short term. but some incredible bargains in the entire energy sector right now.
and algorithm? i think its just simple supply and demand, with supply side being throttled by policy agendas. OPEC aka saudi is flooding the market, probably at US' orders. but this can't last forever. if you are the patient sort, buy stuff now, go through some pain while it might still bottom out. recovery, whenever it happens, will be steep.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
i dont think there is any point in trying to predict where the price of anything is headed in the short term. but some incredible bargains in the entire energy sector right now.
See the point for "trying to predict" :)
and algorithm? i think its just simple supply and demand, with supply side being throttled by policy agendas. OPEC aka saudi is flooding the market, probably at US' orders. but this can't last forever. if you are the patient sort, buy stuff now, go through some pain while it might still bottom out. recovery, whenever it happens, will be steep.
Correct... the algorithm of supply and demand (mixed with geopolitics, taking market shares, pushing someone out of market etc.)
Re: Where is oil heading to?
sir ji, the non-bolded part is key though. the bargains are bargains only if you can bear some pain for what might well be years.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
In the short term markets are speculative. Long term they r weighing machine.
Re OP how can 40 be BOTH support and resistance level?
Have been picking up oil stocks. On average they r up 5 pct. Plus 5 to 7 pct yield.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Re why oil is down, a new poster, who has not graces these forums for last few months correctly points ou5 it's supply vs demand. And supply thru the roof due to Saudi flooding fracking shale oil etc. Demand down due to global slowdown. Chiba slowdown.
EIA estimates r oil inventory at highs. But lots of fracking wells being shut down at same time production efficiency is getting better from existing wells. So production not decreasing as intended.
At some point the idiots - read Texans - will buy gas guzzlers. And off we go.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Iran will soon sell their oil in the open market and given the Saudi's anti they will not be able to profit much from the sales. Saudis and other gulf countries wanna contain Iran from getting extra money [if the prices are high] and thus funding the Syrians, Iraqis and the Hizbullah.
lets enjoy the lower prices which is gonna stay low [between 35 an 40 dollars a barrel] for some significant/considerable length of time. we have had paid more than our share in the past since the Gulf War.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
POT: Summary for Potash Corporation of Saskatche- Yahoo! Finance
Potash is a stock that also appears to be affected by global slowdown. It is at 2009 March levels.
This belongs to undervalued stocks thread. But noone goes there.
Thanks Captain.
Authors note - need 5o check balance sheet income and cash flow statement. This is initial screening.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Stop taking pot Southie.. that could be the reason why gas prices appear to be sliding..
Re: Where is oil heading to?
gas prices par mujhe ek joke yaad aa gayaa:
pahla shaKhs: “gas kii prices roz bahot baRh rahii haiN kaii maheenoN se” 
dusra shaKhs: “koii price vrice nahiiN baRhiii…main tab bhii 10 dollar kii gas bharvaataa thaa aur aaj bhii 10 kaa hii bharvaataa huN” 
Re: Where is oil heading to?
VeRy niceN
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Southie, look forward to your analysis of this stock in the undervalued stocks thread. Should I use my offices to send out forum wide invite to this analysis?.
That's a good plan Sid. I will do the analysis shortly. But please limited the invite to a few. The thread can't handle too much traffic.
Cheers!
Re: Where is oil heading to?
It's not Saudi that is flooding the market with Shale Oil/Gas ... Saudi are producing it for domestic use and it is less profitable so they won't sell it. The US are producing Shale Oil/Gas also for domestic use.
There is a switch in a few places around the world to using local stores or locally produced oil and gas it means the OPEC high grade stuff is in lower demand which forces the high grade stuff to go down in value and effectively a more dynamic buying of shares. When they are ready they will stop the lower grade production and resume the higher grade stuff with a different picture. Cheaper oil means it is more accessible. It means the powerful countries are more able to continue and participate in other interesting business situations - such as war. A higher ability to participate in war means higher demand on weapons. Contrast the weapons industry with the oil and gas. However, the prices of oil are inversely proportional to the stability in the middle east. The export power is not so good and the middle east does not produce anything else as lucrative. It means the middle east is moving into effective decline. The sooner alternatives are exhausted in the west that is when the oil prices will recover and we may also see with it a more stable middle east too.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
okay then, mr conspiracy theory. explain this.
**Huge bump in Saudi crude production starting Jan 2015: Near 10% increase nearly overnight
**
Corresponding downward spike in global crude price starting Jan 2015: Drops from over $80 to under $50 a barrel in exact time frame
1 Year Crude Oil Prices and Crude Oil Price Charts - InvestmentMine
Re: Where is oil heading to?
"Price of oil is inversely proportional to stability in the middle east"
Since oil prices low, does this statement imply high stability in middle east?
"Effectively a more dynamic buying of shares"
What does this mean?
Re: Where is oil heading to?
5 Year Crude Oil Prices and Crude Oil Price Charts - InvestmentMine
Brent Crude dropped first around October 2014 to I think 50 for Brent. Recovery to 85 by early Jan 15. And dropped furhter. The 6 pct rise in Saudi production in Jan. 15(which I did not know abt) may have catalyzed the downward move from Jan 15 levels.
Not sure why. Maybe Saudi decided to make some mo money when crude when to 85. But global slowdown raised its pretty head again.
Last week wsj stated 40 dollar Texas crude is hurting more shake oil producers. Rubber may hot the road. And us production may finally taper off. Note that charts are for Brent crude. Which is now 3 dollars more expensive than Texas crude.
And tRump may finally start showing some sense.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Historical Crude Oil Prices and Price Chart - InvestmentMine
Sometimes it is good to look at long term charts
Historical Crude Oil Prices and Price Chart - InvestmentMine
A 15 yr chart indicates oil prices are at or below 2009 levels. Both Oct 2014 and present prices are probably good oportu it is for long term investors.
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Isn't oil cheaper than water already (in US)?
Re: Where is oil heading to?
Looking at BP TOT CVX COP RDS.A XOM to add to positions. Baby steps.