So the deal has been signed today, what impact would this development have on the region?
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
so, the “cat N mouse” game starts between Iran and IAEA…
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
So the deal has been signed today, what impact would this development have on the region?
I have not seen the writ of the agreement, but I will wager that there is sufficient ambiguity for this "issue" to resurface in the near future.
At the crux of the issue is NPT. Ironically, Nato nations have declared the NPT as null and void in the case of war. I say ironic as the depth and breadth of sanctions against Iran can be construed as an act of war. By the same logic, Iran can exit the treaty under article X.
It shows that Pakistan was right in never singing that awful agreement which simply skews the balance of power in favour of existing nuclear powers.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
Moeed Pirzada
We don’t have much detail but both Iran and France have confirmed that there is now an Agreement! - Israel calls this a Christmas gift to Iran, but what will Iran get in the end? Will it be able to develop Nuclear Weapons within the next few years? I don’t think so; I think Iranian regime will bargain for normal economic relations in lieu of its nuclear ambitions, they were always ready to do that, they had realized that “nuclear weaponzation” will not be possible and they had decided to use this “nuclear” as a card for obtaining regime legitimacy from the US…now if all this goes ahead, then US will accept them into international community and they will forgo the nuclear device option…but this will still be unacceptable to both Israel and Saudi Arabia…for them real issue was never nuclear; they have to prevent Iran from playing a larger political role in the region and a normalized relationship with the US and West allows Iran to play a much more assertive role…India has similar problem with Pakistan; it’s foreign policy goal - with a million excuses from this to that - boils down to containing Pakistan and to keep it in a Pariah state status…this may be called “great game” or “real game”…
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
I have not seen the writ of the agreement, but I will wager that there is sufficient ambiguity for this "issue" to resurface in the near future.
At the crux of the issue is NPT. Ironically, Nato nations have declared the NPT as null and void in the case of war. I say ironic as the depth and breadth of sanctions against Iran can be construed as an act of war. By the same logic, Iran can exit the treaty under article X.
It shows that Pakistan was right in never singing that awful agreement which simply skews the balance of power in favour of existing nuclear powers.
It would be interesting to see this progresses from here, I dont see a very happy Saudia on this. The way things go from here could have repercussions for the whole region.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
i heard that this treaty is ONLY for 6 months and after which they will meet again to enlarge the treaty and make it more comprehensive. in the meantime, some of the sanctions will be lifted [not the major ones]...
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
billi thele se bahir arahi hai......thats all it is. Iranian revolution has served its purpose in the region.
There will be change in the regional politics in Middle-East. KSA/UAE will be brought under pressure.
Ikhwan al Muslimeen will be stopped from gaining more traction to keep bufferzone for Isreal intact.
Russia's position in the region will be weakened.
Its a larger design that spans over half century. Look at it from the ultimate beneficiary's point of view to understand.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
So the deal has been signed today, what impact would this development have on the region?
I don't think there would be much change. There is long term relationship between America, Israel and Saudi. Especially Israel's grip on America is still strong, even though many Americans are getting tired of their government doing Israel's bid all the time.
In general, this deal will provide some relief to Iranian people who are under worst sanctions than any country in this world. Other than that, things will remain the same.
When Kerry was announcing the deal, his tone was all about justifying this deal in front of Israeli lobby in America.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
billi thele se bahir arahi hai......thats all it is. Iranian revolution has served its purpose in the region. There will be change in the regional politics in Middle-East.** KSA/UAE will be brought under pressure.** **Ikhwan al Muslimeen will be stopped from gaining more traction **to keep bufferzone for Isreal intact.
There is a contradiction here. If America wants KSA under pressure then it should NOT stop Ikhwan ul Muslimeen "from gaining traction".
Mubarak was KSA ally. Ikhwan was not. This is why Saudi helped Egyptian army getting rid of Mursi and Ikhwan government. Wahhabi party of Egypt and Saudi celebrated Mursi's ouster.
Iran can't be America's ally. At least as long as Israel does not approve it. Similarly, Saudis are America's ally because Israelis approve it.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
In the game of International politics, there are no favorites. There are only interests.
The best interest for West and Russia has been divide and rule in Middle East, that serves multiple purposes.
The dictators era is gone with the 70s, 80s and 90s. Therefore this Arab spring is appreciated if not supported/funded by the west. New faces, old politics with a twist. This decade will see new lollipop distributed in new fancy colors and flavors, some people will like them others will be upset but will adjust eventually. The notion is progressive society driven by the generation Y. The shuffle has already begun. Each individual state is taken and dealt with its unique ground realities and resources.
Keep them busy within themselves and protect Isreal.
There is a new stake holder in the game of Middle East resources and its China, hence the Iran’s deal. With sanctions removed in next two years or so, Iran will emerge as one of the most powerful player in the region. Iran has never been real danger to Isreal or West, the drama was on paper.
Staging a revolution before an actual revolution is a useful trick that has been excersized in 20th century more than once. You need to see the cause and effect of each revolution and find out who benefited at the end.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
Netanyahu is anwwy:
Obama called this deal “an important first step”
Iran nuclear deal: ‘New horizons opened’ says Rouhani as Obama hails ‘important first step’ | The National
Netanyahu replies: “This first step could very well be the last step,” Israeli PM Netanyahu: Iran nuclear deal ‘historic mistake’ - CNN.com
*This shows that Netanyahu is confidence that he has more control of the US than American president himself. *
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
Saudis and UAE will be the unhappiest in the lot which did not like the deal. Israel will continue to bring the deal to end by all possible or impossible means while Arab states will also use their clout — of whatever worth — to make the deal end prematurely. Nevertheless, it is a huge development and will have far-reaching consequences in the region, including Pakistan.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
Iran got the last laugh
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
One big impact will be on Afghanistan. If the next 6 month of negotiation leads to the normalization of the US-Iran relationship, then through Iran the US will have a means of providing support to the anti-Taliban factions in Afghanistan - Iran has excellent relations with the Persian-speaking Sunnis (Tajiks, Uzbeks) of Afghanistan and of course the Afghan Shias. Through Iran the US will be able to have a strong regional local power back the anti-Taliban forces and prevent a Taiban re-takeover.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
^ Good point.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
Iran got the last laugh
Not laugh. More like a smirk.
Iranian people lost big time due to self-righteousness of cleric-politicians.
I think Iran is a good example of why religion and politics should not mix. The country has so much potential and yet it destroyed future of its people by making enemies all around the world for no reason.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
Not laugh. More like a smirk. Iranian people lost big time due to self-righteousness of cleric-politicians.
I think Iran is a good example of why religion and politics should not mix. The country has so much potential and yet it destroyed future of its people by making enemies all around the world for no reason.
Iran had to go through what it did...had it not, it would be ruled by pliant dictators beholden to dictates from either Washington or the Kremlin. Such is the price for independence.
There was a glimmer of hope: neither east, nor west...Islam. So was the slogan. At the time, sympathetic people thought it meant Iran would take a swiss-like approach to the super powers, but it wasn't to be. These were ideological fools who wanted to export their revolution, rather than harness it for progress. In the end the aspirations of the clerics simply did not match their ability to project power. Iranian grumblings did not win it friends, and in time they had to suffer through the disastrous Iran-Iraq war, which is really what retarded Iranian growth, imho. And as far as I can tell, that was an act of Iraqi aggression against Iran and so a war not of their choosing.
The tragedy of Iran begins with the usurpation of power from Mosaddegh.
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
It would be interesting to see this progresses from here, I dont see a very happy Saudia on this. The way things go from here could have repercussions for the whole region.
The biggest impact will be for American relations with it's ME partners. I highly doubt this will lead to normalization of relations between US and Iran.
I think the biggest impact will be America loosing influence over Israel and Saudi. You'll see these two being more assertive, and peeving America off on a more frequent basis.
Other than that, it's business as usual. I'm almost certain we will see this issue revisited in the years to come. Would a Republican carry on the same track?
Re: US Iran Nuclear deal
The tragedy of Iran begins with the usurpation of power from Mosaddegh.
True. US, the champion of democracy, destroyed democracy in Iran when it overthrew Mosaddegh and installed a monarch.