Re: UK sailors captured at gunpoint
Ravage, you have to read my statements carefully. I said *gasoline *tankers. Despite Iran swimming in crude, it has barely enough refining capacity to fuel 50% of it’s own internal gasoline consumption, and even less of other refined products such as diesel. Why? because Iran does not have the internal industry to build refineries, and companies that could build refineries either do not because of political instability, or sanctions on technology. Iran is a frikkin’ energy mess. Their nationally produced automobiles get horrible mileage, and have no pollution controls. Do a Google on “Iran Gasoline” and read up.
My proposal is to blockade gasoline going in, not oil going out. Iran *must *export oil, as it constitutes 50% of their entire economy. But yes, oil prices would spike during the conflict. Here is some further detail:
Gasoline Imports
Iran has imported refined products since 1982, and these imports have been increasing rapidly. Currently, gasoline costs less than 40 cents per gallon in Iran, far below international levels, contributing to a rapid (8-10 percent per year) growth rate in gasoline consumption. In addition, the country imports around one-third of its gasoline. In volume terms, Iran is the second largest importer of gasoline in the world after the United States. In 2005, Iran imported 150,000 bbl/d out of total consumption of 400,000 bbl/d. For 2006, FACTS estimates Iran will consume 462,000 bbl/d of gasoline and import 188,000 bbl/d, or roughly 41 percent of total consumption. According to Petroleum Argus, around 60 percent of this comes from European oil trader, Vitol, with another 15 percent coming from India’s 600,000-bbl/d Reliance refinery However, although Iran imports large amounts of gasoline, it is an overall net petroleum products exporter due to its large gross exports of residual fuel oil.* *
Through the summer of 2006, there was heated debate among Iranian politicians as to how to balance expanding gasoline needs and the corresponding increase needed for gasoline subsidies. NIOC has said it has used nearly its entire $2.5 billion budget for gasoline imports but legislators have stated their opposition to providing the additional $3.5 billion necessary to pay for imports through the end of the fiscal year, in March 2007. Options put forward for addressing the issue included ceasing gasoline imports in September 2006 when many contracts expire and rationing gasoline, or implementing a two-tier price system whereby each car is allotted 2.5-3 liters a day at the subsidized price of 8.7 cents per liter, with consumption beyond that at 60-65 cents per liter.
Going forward, FACTS reports that Iran will complete construction of three 120,000 bbl/d condensate splitters by 2009. The facilities will produce an estimated 200,000 bbl/d of gasoline. Along with other projects, it is possible that Iran will cease being a gasoline importer by 2010.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Iran/Oil.html