The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

Great cofusion about how, why and when exactly it all began.

This article sheds some light, and not surprisingly adds to the confusion! :smiley:

Some good background info on the contacts and their dynamics.
Makes you wonder more where we’re headed and how…

http://dawn.com/2007/07/22/nat1.htm
The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

LONDON, July 21: The Guardian has pieced together what is, according to the newspaper, the story behind the negotiations between Benazir Bhutto and President Gen Pervez Musharraf for a power-sharing arrangement after the general election.

Tracing what they have described as “The Plot to bring back Benazir” Adrian Levy and Cathy Scott-Clark said in the paper’s Friday issue it all began three years ago, on June 20, 2004, at a low-profile dinner in Blackburn where Ms Bhutto received a call from the then British foreign secretary Jack Straw, who it is said invited her to the Foreign Office.

The conversation marked the first official communication the PPP had had with a British minister in more than a decade.

One morning the following month, Ms Bhutto was brought to a side entrance of the Foreign Office. The meeting lasted more than an hour.

Mr Straw reassured the PPP chief that his government favoured democracy in Pakistan, but stressed that Musharraf, too, was important. Ms Bhutto thought it hopeless. But within weeks, Mark Lyall Grant, the then British high commissioner in Islamabad, flew to Dubai to convey a message to Ms Bhutto from Musharraf.

The president was willing to make a gesture: her husband was to be released from jail. Perhaps she should now consider working with him? Ms Bhutto remained suspicious, the daily said.

In early 2005, the PPP chief was invited back to the Foreign Office. “The talk was of a post-Musharraf world,” one of Ms Bhutto’s inner-circle says. “What London feared was chaos,” a Foreign Office spokeswoman says. “What everyone wanted was a smooth transition, from Musharraf to something sustainable, preferably democratic. Ms Bhutto had a chance of winning an election if that day came.”

At that stage, the US was still apparently backing President Musharraf, although, according to a Ms Bhutto aide, Straw advised her that it was beginning to think about change.

Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, was at that very moment in Islamabad pressing Gen Musharraf to ‘allow free elections’.

A series of bombings on London’s transport network four months later, in July 2005, killing 52 people and injuring hundreds more, brought a new urgency to the Straw-Bhutto talks. Three of the four British suicide bombers were of Pakistan origin.

Mr Straw noted that, in 2001, President Musharraf had pledged to outlaw militant groups. But no action followed, the Guardian said.

Ms Bhutto warned Mr Straw that the PPP would have little chance, unless the Bush administration, too, was willing to look beyond Musharraf and back the call for elections. Straw insisted he had talked to Rice and Washington was reconsidering its position.

Under cover of providing aid to the earthquake victims, the columnists write, 17 Sunni extremist groups previously banned by Musharraf (under pressure from the US state department) re-emerged with new names. The outlawed Lashkar-i-Taiba was there, running a field hospital in Muzaffarabad. “Why should we not allow our own people, to go there and assist… whether they are jiihadis or anybody,” Gen Musharraf said at the time.

Yet only a few months later, in early 2006, he was sending a new message to Ms Bhutto, asking that she list her demands. She wrote: free elections; political prisoners released; an independent election commission formed; the Constitution restored. The reply came back almost immediately: Musharraf was not ready for this kind of deal.

By now the Americans were on track and Musharraf at last agreed to hold a poll. It was to be staged after November when the National Assembly’s term ran out. But he insisted that Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif should not to be allowed to return until after the election, the article said.

As direct contact was established between the US and Ms Bhutto, the newly appointed US assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, Richard Boucher, urged her not to encourage PPP supporters to take to the streets in protest, as they had done on previous occasions. The PPP agreed.

The former prime minister and Gen Musharraf continued to sound each other out through emissaries. It seemed that a major sticking point was the president’s pride. He had never forgiven Ms Bhutto for embarrassing him during a discussion they had about starting a war with India over Kashmir in 1993, when Musharraf had wanted the Pakistan army to launch a full-scale invasion on its own initiative. “This country is run by a civilian government,” Ms Bhutto recalls snapping. “I am still the prime minister.”

In early 2007, President Bush made his first public criticism of Musharraf, warning that he had to be more aggressive in hunting down terrorists. Under pressure, Musharraf leaned toward a deal with Ms Bhutto - if he could stay on as president. The talks stalled again, this time because Ms Bhutto’s supporters resented her being in cahoots with the general. Then Musharraf’s emissaries came up with an even stranger proposal: if the PPP chief stayed away from Pakistan during the election, Musharraf would “adjust the vote”. A Ms Bhutto aide said, “We could not believe it. He was offering to rig the election.”

In Pakistan, unrest was building up, especially after Musharraf suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.

Ms Bhutto stepped up her demands. “We wanted a free vote and I told them I was going back home to campaign for one.” Then she made a remarkable concession: if she fought and won the election and became prime minister, Musharraf could stay on as a civilian president for the next five years.

In another seismic shift, the PPP chief proposed that the military retain responsibility for foreign affairs and national security over this five-year period, while her government would concentrate on the domestic agenda.

Publicly, all sides denied the talks. Nevertheless, a US state department spokesman, briefing the media on June 11, was positively bullish. “There are going to be some important elections coming up in the fall,” he said, adding that Musharraf had pledged that, if he “continues in political life”, he will “put aside the uniform”.

A chill has descended over “Mush and Bush"(relationship). And the storming of the Red Mosque 11 days ago is unlikely to put him back in favour: this was a seminary flourishing despite its endorsement of suicide bombings and the Taliban.

While Washington and London continue publicly to characterise Musharraf as the west’s best hope of stopping Pakistan’s descent into Islamic extremism, in reality they have concluded that it is the general who is easing the path of the militants. And he must be stopped.

Ms Bhutto is committed to returning to Pakistan in September, and informal polls have shown that, despite the rampant extremism in the country, she is likely to dominate the elections. Her constituency in Sindh had been battered but could be salvaged and built into a movement, she claims, while the tribal areas, in which the Taliban and militant groups had made the most inroads, are electorally insignificant.

For the PPP chief, the recent siege at the Red Mosque was evidence of the calamity facing Pakistan. “The country is experiencing its darkest hour,” she says. “Nothing is as General Musharraf portrays it,” she says. “He talks of the army battling militants who are trying to get a toe-hold. In fact, in the border regions, there are thousands of new madressahs. And they are not just madressahs, they are mini-cantonments, ruling the tribal areas through terror. Free and fair elections are the last chance to halt the expansion of Al Qaida and the neo-Taliban.”

Musharraf has reiterated that he is still committed to holding an election, but the pressing question now being asked is whether Ms Bhutto, if elected, is capable of bringing Pakistan back from the brink.

The Pakistan military, with its enormous economic clout, has become a new political class and ultimately might not care who wins the elections. Regardless of whether or not Benazir Bhutto returns to triumph at the polls, it is the military who will remain in power, the columnists observed.

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

With Musharraf at his weakest, it looks like BB will now head back to finish him off

**Bhutto plans early **challenge to Musharraf

PAKISTAN’S exiled former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, is to make an early return to challenge plans by General Pervez Musharraf, the military ruler, to secure a new term as president without waiting for elections.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, she said the logic for a political deal that she had been contemplating with Musharraf had been significantly weakened by the Supreme Court’s decision last week to reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhry, the chief justice he suspended earlier this year over claims of nepotism.

Critics said the real reason for the suspension had been that Musharraf believed Chaudhry would overrule his plans to be reappointed by the current parliament, in which he has a majority, rather than wait for a new assembly that is due to be elected by the end of this year.

Last night Bhutto said the Supreme Court had reasserted the independence of the judiciary and the newly strengthened courts could topple Musharraf through rulings on whether he can be appointed twice by the same assembly and whether he can continue to serve as both president and army chief of staff.

**Any deal now with the general would be unpopular and damaging to her Pakistan People’s party (PPP), she said. The only circumstances in which she might still consider an arrangement would be if she felt it necessary to guarantee fair parliamentary elections on time. **
“He has lost his moral authority. His popularity rates are down and it would be very unpopular if we saved him. We would lose votes by being associated with him,” she said.

Musharraf, who is struggling to contain a resurgence of terrorism, has not threatened to delay elections, although the constitution allows him to do so for one year. Leading supporters have raised the possibility, however.

Bhutto will wait to see if Musharraf goes through with his plan to be reappointed by the assembly before deciding whether to abandon discussions with him. Speaking in London, Bhutto, who risks arrest on corruption charges on her return to Pakistan, said she felt that going home would be less hazardous than previously thought and she would make a final decision on the date next month.
“I said I would return by December, but now my people tell me we should go to court in regard to my return, and that I should come back as soon as possible, maybe in September. We will decide at a party meeting at the end of August,” she said.
“I feel safer about returning after the Supreme Court’s decision.”

The reinstatement of the popular chief justice has left Musharraf more isolated than at any time since he seized power in 1999. The Pakistani army is struggling to get to grips with Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters who have killed 95 soldiers since Musharraf ordered a raid on militants occupying Islamabad’s Red Mosque earlier this month. That raid left 102 people dead and triggered a wave of suicide bombings.
Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda’s deputy leader, has called on Pakistanis to overthrow their government. Taliban leaders in the North Waziristan tribal area have launched attacks on army checkpoints and convoys.
President George W Bush in his weekly radio address yesterday endorsed comments by intelligence officials who said that a peace deal reached by Musharraf with the Taliban last summer allowed Al-Qaeda to rebuild bases in Pakistan, boosting its ability to attack America.
This weekend Musharraf was locked in emergency meetings with cabinet colleagues, plotting a strategy to save his leadership.

If he seeks a mandate from the current parliament but is overruled by the Supreme Court, he will be forced to hand over the presidency to a caretaker.
Bhutto’s advisers are preparing to challenge his right to continue wearing his army chief’s uniform while serving as president, and are seeking to restore millions of voters to the electoral roll. They will also ask for a ruling on whether Bhutto should be released if she is arrested when she returns to Pakistan.
According to friends of Musharraf, he is not confident that a newly elected assembly would elect him and believes he needs six months to “soften up” MPs.

His problem is that his own term ends before that of the current assembly. To win a democratic mandate for a new term, he must either bring forward the elections or extend the term of the current assembly to give himself more time to win over MPs.
This can be done under the constitution if it can be shown that a delay is needed to tackle “lawlessness”.
The deteriorating security situation, particularly in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, would help him to justify such a move. A war appears to be looming between Al-Qaeda-led Taliban fighters and Musharraf’s forces.

His strongest domestic ally in his war on the country’s Islamic militants has been Bhutto. Despite public criticism of Musharraf by US officials, they still believe that he is essential to hopes of restoring stability to the country. They also believe that he needs a deal with Bhutto to make headway and restore democratic legitimacy.

The options
A comeback by Benazir Bhutto
Likely, but she faces an uphill struggle to become prime minister again. She could nominate a colleague as prime minister while calling the shots as party boss.
Early election
Unlikely. Musharraf would have to announce elections next week so that they could be held three months later, just before his term ends.
An army coup
Not be ruled out. There are rumblings in the ranks.
A return to barracks
Musharraf could choose to abandon politics, though his successor as president might regard him as a threat as chief of staff and pension him off.

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

The original article is here The plot to bring back Benazir | US news | The Guardian Britains role in this is well known, but that was the previous Ambassador. The new one is showing a much harder line towards Mush.

Also Tariq Aziz’s name is oddly absent from the article, he being Mushs point man deservves an honourable (?) mention.

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

i am not sure why people have to rely on reports on foreign newspaper to learn about events in pak. no foreign reporter in pak knows pak as well as most people do on this website.

as far as the article goes, most of it is nonsense. media has been saying for years that bush will withdraw support from musharraf. bush works on the basis of personal relationship and all indications are that he is "tight" with musharraf. moreover u.s. has its hands full in iraq and does not want to create a situation which causes uncertainty in pak. overall americans are satisfied with cooperation from pak and pentagon is in very good terms with army/musharraf and even democrats wont ignore pentagon's advice.

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

http://ummat.com.pk/leads_news/lead05.htm

Benazir doesnt want Musharraf to resign. :smiley:

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

Brother, please give some thoughts before giving value to an article : )

TimesonLine: Is this a serious newspaper? Do they read article before posting? Do they know that even dates are important when quoting articles?

The article makes no sense and it is absurd (even original article the paper quoted, that is from ‘The Sunday times’ was absurd too). Four options in conclusion of the article: Just imagine that how all four options are absurd.

The options given:

Well, she was given this option by President Musharraf in 2002 when President was intending to make Amin Fahim Prime Minister. But BB is scared that if anyone else would become prime minister, as Pakistan politics goes, she would lose complete control over the party, Party would get hijacked. Hence she did not agree. So, this is not President Problem but BB problem. How can she agree today? Even if she would agree, that would be what President wants anyhow :).

Well, as option itself mentions, 3 months. Presidential election has to happen before 15th October. So 15th Oct – 3 months = 15th July. Thus, date on 22 July means, date has passed for quick election. No option left.

After 9 years of commanding the army (President Musharraf became Chief in 1998). He is considered to be much closer to the army officers than all his predecessors. He selected and promoted each and every one of the ranked officers in the army to his own satisfaction, sharing all his decisions with core commanders (who are his own appointees), it would be surprise if Musharraf is out of touch with his own army and this writer is in better shape to know the thinking and rumblings in the army :). I think that this writer is day dreaming.

It seems that the writer does not even know how Pakistan army functions. Writer could not even understand that President Musharraf do not even have the option he mentioned, of returning to barracks. In this regards, there are only 3 options with President:

President Musharraf keeps Presidency and chief-of-army staff position both.
President Musharraf keeps Presidency position and resigns from chief position.
President Musharraf resigns from both positions.

Option to keep chief-of-army staff position and give up presidency position is not there, because chief-of-army stays chief for only 3 years and then retires. President is chief since 1998, or since last 9 years, and he is keeping chief position, because he is President.

So, this article is completely absurd and out of date. :slight_smile:

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

oopsy daisy..now BB playing hard ball. One almost feels sorry for the general :whistling

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

summary: one puppet replaced by another? ;)

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

Benazir, you such a tease.

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

she still wants him to remove his wardi before she gets in bed with him?

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

You serious??

Times of London is one of the biggest and most respected newspapers in the world

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

Yep, she is teasing her party wala's like she has been for so long. Notice when she said:-

Bhutto will wait to see if Musharraf goes through with his plan to be reappointed by the assembly before deciding whether to abandon discussions with him. Speaking in London

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

http://thenews.jang.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=9138

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

do Pakistanis even want Benazir back?

Seriously, no one wants her back.....

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

They do. She's one of the most popular leaders in the country and her party continues to remain strong even after she's remained outside for some 10 odd years.

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

Yes!

The General was at his best without all this political baggage drowning him.

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

it appears British govt does :) and that is what matters in the end.

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

Not necessarily true. British may have played some part in facilitating a dialog between her and Mush, but that does not explain why her party bagged the most amount of votes in 2002, and why she is the most popular civilian leader in Pakistan today, according to the IRI surveys.

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

dont mention IRI too much, some ppl dont like IRI around here :)
she is the most popular leader in pakistan today because she has a pwerful family name, and then look at ppl she is up against nawaz, fazl, etc :D

Re: The story behind ‘Benazir-Musharraf contacts’

But what about the corruption charges against her and her husband?

I cant believe that many Pakistanis are so naive to think that her regime wasn't corrupt

Seriously, during her tenure, what did she get done?