The political divide

With lines distinctly drawn…positions taken the current political scenario is becoming clear for our fellow guppers to speculate on situations arising after elections…

It seems very clear now that PML Q will not come in to coalition with PPP after the elections as it seemed could be the case just a few weeks ago…as the later calling the former Qatil league…there are two distinct groups in our national ploitics..

PML Q/MQM/JUI F/ANP it looks will try to form a government in coalition while PML N and PPP will form most likely a strong opposition at federal level…I see Pervaiz Elahi as the next PM of the country…

Punjab will most likely go to PML Q…Sindh will go to PPP…NWFP PML Q/JUI F/ANP…Baluchistan will be a government friendly to the federal government…

However the balance of power will remain with MQM and JUI F…I don’t think they will sit with PPP…but who knows if MQM gives priority to Sindh government and cooperate with PPP to form government at national level also (their leader Altaf Hussain being highly unpredictable)…a highly unlikely scenario as this will weaken President Musharraf…the main source of strength for MQM…

I would like to hear comments from fellow guppers…please look in to your crystal balls and let us know what you see in the future…

Re: The political divide

This is bit off topic, but I don’t want to start another thread on it. Its worth reading…

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/06/AR2008010602336_pf.html

Strains Intensify in Pakistan’s Ethnic Patchwork

By Griff Witte
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, January 7, 2008; A01

KARACHI, Pakistan – To Khaled Chema, an unemployed 32-year-old living in a sprawling slum of this mega-city by the sea, Benazir Bhutto wasn’t assassinated because she opposed extremism and advocated democracy. She was killed because, like him, she was a Sindhi.

And just as her father did before her, Bhutto died a long way from home – in the back yard of the Punjabi establishment. Her assassination has inflamed long-simmering resentments among ethnic minorities toward the dominant Punjabis.

In Pakistan – a federation of four provinces, each associated with a different ethnic group – the issue of ethnic identity has long been troublesome, imperiling the unity of the state.

In Baluchistan, many people are in open revolt. Pashtuns in North-West Frontier Province have joined their clansmen on the Afghan side of the border in a bloody insurgency against both governments.

Now, Bhutto’s assassination in Rawalpindi, a key city in Punjab province and the home of the military, has endangered the uneasy balance in which Sindhis suppressed their ethnic-nationalist desires because they knew that one of their own was among the most popular politicians in the country.

At Bhutto’s funeral in rural Sindh province last month, there was hardly a Pakistani flag to be seen, and Sindhi mourners chanted, “We don’t need Pakistan!” Sindhis also attacked Punjabi targets in the three days of rioting that followed news of her killing.

Meanwhile, some here in Karachi, capital of Sindh province, are threatening to wage war against the Pakistani army unless Sindhis win more power in elections scheduled for next month. Punjabis have long been overrepresented in the army, which is widely blamed here for Bhutto’s death, despite the government’s insistence that Islamic extremists were responsible.

“The army is unable to work in Baluchistan and the North-West Frontier Province. Sindh is next,” said Bashir Ahmal Haleemi, a trucker and longtime Karachi resident. “The people in Sindh hate the Punjabi establishment. Not the common man from Punjab, but the Punjabi factor in the army. Now the hatred is growing.”

President Pervez Musharraf has acknowledged the backlash, appealing for calm in a nationwide address Wednesday and reaching out “especially to my Sindhi brothers and sisters.”

Pakistan was cobbled together more than 60 years ago as a homeland for Muslims of the Indian subcontinent. While religion was a common bond, the country’s multilingual and multiethnic nature has never been successfully addressed by any of its leaders. The ethnic strife peaked in 1971, when Bengalis revolted and Pakistan split in half with the creation of Bangladesh.

Few believe the country is in imminent danger of fracturing again. But Bhutto’s death has exacerbated ethnic tension in at least two ways: It has angered non-Punjabis because of her status as a member of a minority, and it has eliminated one of the few Pakistani politicians whose reputation transcended ethnicity.

At a time of constant upheaval in Pakistan, when religion, education levels and party affiliation are all sources of conflict, ethnic identity is just one more layer of division.

Asma Jahangir, an internationally renowned human rights advocate, said she first grasped the depth of the current ethnic tension when she attended Bhutto’s funeral and heard crowds at the airport shouting at soldiers: “Leave Sindh! We don’t want to be part of you! You can keep your generals!”

“It’s an extremely fearful atmosphere in Pakistan,” Jahangir said. “There is terrible resentment in Sindh, and if Musharraf’s government stays it will just keep getting worse. I have never been this pessimistic. I have never been this depressed about Pakistan.”

Bhutto herself believed ardently in the unity of Pakistan and enjoyed nationwide support. While other parties appealed to particular ethnic groups, her Pakistan People’s Party had backing across the country. After her return from exile in October, she crisscrossed Pakistan. The crowds were especially large in her native Sindh, but they were sizable in the other provinces, too.

Bhutto’s successors at the head of the party now have to strike a difficult balance, acknowledging the anger felt by Sindhis but also preventing that anger from becoming so strong that it makes other ethnic groups feel unwelcome.

“She was the leader of Pakistan, but she belonged to Sindh,” said Nasreen Chandio, a lawmaker from the Pakistan People’s Party in Karachi. “Now the people of Sindh have become orphans.”

Chandio said calls for a separate Sindhi nation have grown among her constituents since Bhutto’s death, “but we respect her will to unite the federation, despite all of our anger.”

Sherry Rehman, spokeswoman for the party, said party leaders have been “appealing to our Sindhi supporters not to blame the Punjabis, to see them as our brothers,” adding, “We are seeking to unite the country.”

But that will be difficult. Resentment of Punjab is widespread in the other provinces, which feel they supply more than their fair share of natural resources and get little in return from the Punjabis, who run the army and, by extension, the country.

“Pakistan is like a house,” said Haleemi, the trucker. “It was established for us. But when the army was building it, they didn’t give us any choices. They chose the color of the carpet, the design of the kitchen, the style of the windows. We have to live there, but they make all the selections.”

The anti-Punjabi sentiment is, in many ways, an extension of animosity that has evolved over the past year. It started out as anti-Musharraf, grew to become anti-military and has now burst into view as anti-Punjabi.

Chema, the unemployed slum resident, believes the only solution is for Sindh to break away from Pakistan and form its own nation. “We will be separate, and we will solve all our basic problems very easily,” he said.

That view is not widely held. More common is the belief that Sindh, Baluchistan and North-West Frontier Province need greater autonomy from the central government.

“There has never been an equal and just distribution of resources among the federating units, and that’s something that causes big resentment,” said Afzal Khan Lala, a senior Pashtun nationalist politician from North-West Frontier Province.

His party advocates control of just four basic functions for the central government in Islamabad: foreign policy, defense, currency and communications. The rest would be left to the provinces to figure out on their own. Without autonomy, he said, “the resentment among smaller provinces can grow to dangerous proportions, putting at risk the survival of Pakistan.”

Zafarullah Khan, executive director of Pakistan’s Center for Civic Education, has a different solution: an end to military rule, and elections that give minority groups a proper say.

“If the powers that be really want a federal Pakistan, they’re going to have to give democracy a chance,” Khan said. “Democracy is the way to keep Pakistan together.”

Correspondent Emily Wax in Lahore, special correspondent Imtiaz Ali in Peshawar and staff researcher Robert E. Thomason in Washington contributed to this report.

Re: The political divide

This was not seen as a great sight in Punjab....if only the Sindhi leadership of PPP realized at that time....if they would have named Aitzaz Ahsan or Shah Mehmood Qureshi as the chairman (this scenario was the biggest nightmare of the establishment)....this party would have changed the destiny of Pakistan....har politician including Altaf Hussain/NS/Pervaiz Elahi ka dabba goal ho jatta.....but alas....family intrest prevailed over national interest...

Re: The political divide

Chema! A sindhi?

Re: The political divide

When I read the article ... 'Cheema being a Sindhi' was shock to me too :) ... It only shows the depth of knowledge and information the writer has about Pakistan and people of Pakistan :)

Re: The political divide

Yes! I found that strange too. Cheemas are of Punjabi origin.

Re: The political divide

Anyways.......Pervaiz Elahi seems to be a next disaster for this country.

Re: The political divide

Well, seems Western media these days are cooking stories about Pakistan in their kitchen and sometime they get mixed up with names ... for instance not knowing the names, sometime chapati becomes papadum ... maybe here chandio became cheema :) ...

You should read first two letters, guess what is written and forget the rest. :)

Re: The political divide

In any case, MQM should take a wise decision to avoid confrontation with anyone in the future set up of Pakistan both at the provincial and federal levels. So far in its history it has created confrontation and rift with other communities and parties in this country. And this has been very detrimental to the people MQM claims to represent.

Re: The political divide

Well Channa is more likely!

Re: The political divide

Pervaiz Elahi will be either continue as Punjab Chief Minister or become the Prime Minister depending on the scenario arising after the election....if he opts to remain as Punjab Chief Minister the next PM can also come from MQM or any other smaller party depending on the desperation of PML Q....and number of seats won by the opposition.....in any case we are all set to see the worse kind of horse trading after the election....

Another scenario can be a PM from a forward block formed from PPP.....Shah Mehmood is not a typical yes sir politician who is also very ambitious....and does not see a very good long term future in PPP...He is also very close to Farooq Leghari....and will have all Leghari lobby working for him....

Re: The political divide

I can understand that Pervaiz Elahi might have done corruption ... as most Pakistani politicians do.

Nevertheless, I am still waiting to read clearly accused corruption expolit stories of Chaudhries in western media, or any indications of their expensive western properties, or off-shore bank accounts.

If anyone knows of such accused corruption stories in western media (that can be used to sue the particular media), or of their expensive western property addresses ... or their western off-shore bank accounts, please be kind to bring that on the forum, as that would be nice information to know (as reference for quoting their corruption exploits).

What I know, I have read of only three Pakistani politician corruption exploits in western press (BB, Zardari and NS), because they were mega corrupts at international level, whereas other Pakistani politicians could be corrupt, still petty-thieves compare to them famous world corrupts.

Re: The political divide

Saleem corruption is not a deterence in Pakistani politics if you want to be somewhere in the corridors of power.....in this thread I do not want to discuss normal idealistic values.....there are too many threads where you and I can do the same....here we are discussing realistic scenarios without getting emotional....

I request other participants also not to get in to usual blame game which is being carried out in a lot of other threads....let's discuss realistically the possible scenarios wihtout getting emotional....

Re: The political divide

Normally, I am not pessimistic, however, I fear that the group which has carried out the assassination of BB will not allow the elections to go smoothly.

Re: The political divide

I think the situation is perfect for election for the PML Q and pro Musharraf block....opposition is more divided than they could have imagined....even PPP is likely to split after the elections as their own candidates/politicians would not like to spend another 5 years in opposition.....just like PML was split....

If anyone thinks in Pakistan they can come to power without coming in terms with establishment....is grossly mistaken.....it has never happened and will never happen.....however establishment may change faces....to keep opposition under control....in that case PML Q may have to take back seat....however in my opinion they will be still a part of any new set up....it is just a question about what role is chosen for them....

Re: The political divide

I totally agree with that. Just imagine someone like Aitzaz Ahsan being president of PPP.

Re: The political divide

Power that to be will never allowed free and fair elections in Pakistan.

http://dawn.com/weekly/cowas/cowas.htm

By Ardeshir Cowasjee

ON Jan 4 in our national press, on a front page, there appeared a most startling news item under the heading ‘Shujaat says ISI’s political cell should continue working’.

The news item quoted his rationale as so tortuously expressed on one of the independent television channels: this undesirable, suspect and sinister body “keeps a watch on political parties and reports their anti-government and anti-state activities”. In the same breath he stated that his party would accept the results of the upcoming general elections.

Well, naturally it will, because the chattering Chaudhry obviously intends to make use of the Inter-Services Intelligence organisation’s experienced ‘political cell’ to ensure that the elections are rigged to his party’s satisfaction. So that the question of ‘acceptance’ does not even arise.

The next day, front-paged also, was a not-so-startling news item under the heading ‘PPP for end to ISI role in electoral process’. Quite naturally, the PPP has accused the ISI, inter alia, of indulging in “pre-poll rigging”.

How was this political cell formed and why? In 1975 Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, that man of great perspicacity, ruling under an ‘emergency’ and exercising his finite wisdom, issued an executive order creating this political cell within the ISI for purposes that do not have to be spelt out. It eventually was one of the factors that led to his downfall and execution. He used it as the almost incomprehensible Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain of the fiefdom of Gujrat intends to now use it again. But Zulfikar overused it to unnecessarily rig his general elections of March 1977 which subsequently caused an uprising of the opposition, trouble and turmoil in the land, and the inevitable military takeover. After his use of this political cell, it was all downhill for him. The Gujrat Chaudhry should be warned. Over-rigging does not pay.

The cell was subsequently made much use of by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in cahoots with his army chief, General Mirza Aslam Beg, to form a political alliance, using public money and funds provided by Yunus Habib of Mehran Bank, to rig the 1990 elections, bring in the Ziaul Haq-groomed Nawaz Sharif as prime minister and stop the dismissed Benazir Bhutto from coming in again. It was a successful operation, as the concerned luminaries and we all know. The details of the ISI shenanigans have been written of in the press time and time again, and pleas have been made that the cell should be disbanded so that the military has no involvement at all in the political process of this country — as was recommended by General Asif Nawaz when he was the COAS in the early 1990s.

In 1996, on the floor of the National Assembly, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s interior minister retired Lt-Gen Naseerullah Babar announced that the then former chief of army staff, Gen Mirza Aslam Beg, had in 1990 handed over to the then chief of the ISI, Lt-Gen Asad Durrani, an amount of Rs140m withdrawn from Mehran Bank and instructed him to use the money to purchase a selection of anti-PPP politicians and ensure that Nawaz Sharif’s IJI was brought to power.

Shortly thereafter, retired Air Marshal Asghar Khan wrote a letter to the then Chief Justice of Pakistan, Sajjad Ali Shah, requesting him to take note of the matter of the ISI and its political interference. The Chief Justice did so and the letter was converted into Human Rights Petition 19/96. Beg, Durrani and Habib were cited as respondents. Hearings commenced in Feb 1997, initially in camera on the request of the ISI insofar as its legal standing was concerned, and continued on sporadically, the last hearing being on Oct 11, 1999 when the then Chief Justice, Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, announced that he had reserved judgment in the case. General Pervez Musharraf assumed all powers unto himself the next day. (Full details of the case and its background can be found in Asghar Khan’s book, We’ve Learnt Nothing from History published by OUP in 2005.)

To give due credit to Benazir Bhutto, in her first term of office she correctly appointed the late upright officer, Air Chief Marshal Zulfikar Ali Khan, to head a commission to review the working of the security and intelligence agencies of the country, amongst them the ISI. One of his findings (March 27, 1989) is revealing and pertinent:

“Another undesirable aspect of the working of certain intelligence agencies was their conduct in the recent general elections and to the subsequent transfer of power to elected representatives of the people. Arrogating to themselves the exclusive right to patriotism, they tried to manipulate the results in favour or against certain political parties by threats and coercion, persuasion and offers of bribes. Subsequently, efforts were made to destabilise the government duly established by law and these agencies tried to act as virtual king-makers. In normal times, this should have entailed severe punishment for the individuals concerned, but I realise that under martial law such activities are considered valid. The least that should be done to redress the situation is to transfer the key personnel of the agencies concerned without delay, as the posting out of lesser functionaries does not seem to have produced the desired results….”

No prime minister or president since then has sought to curb the powers of the ISI’s political cell and its meddling in political affairs. In fact, they have used it in various nefarious ways to further their terms in office. No Chief Justice since Justice Siddiqui has been able to take on the ISI and hear the case filed by Asghar Khan and finally deliver judgment. What is it — a lack of guts or the reluctance to rock the boat?

Chief Justice Siddiqui was followed by Irshad Hasan Khan, Bashir Jehangiri, Sheikh Riaz Ahmed, Nazim Hussain Siddiqui and then Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. Today, almost 12 long years later, Human Rights Petition 19/96 remains shelved. Each successive Chief Justice of our Supreme Court has found it prudent to leave the petition undecided. It is too much to expect that the present Chief Justice, placed as precariously as he is, and under the firm guidance of President Gen Pervez Musharraf, will even consider seeing this petition to its finality. (It can also safely be said that the case of the 200 or so missing persons so bravely taken up by the dismissed Chief Justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, will also not for the time being see the light of day or justice.)

In these elections of 2008, the ISI and its cell are surely once more well into the act, egged on as they are by the Chaudhry of Gujrat. Alas, for the nation and its much-touted ‘national interest.’

[email protected]

Re: The political divide

I dont think that PE stands any chance of becoming PM after next election (thanks God). I guess someone with the support of PML(Q), MQM, ANP, Fazlu and with "less opposition" of PPP will become the PM.

Re: The political divide

^there will be no elections that soon. I promise you that. Muharam is on soon, now we will see Sunni and Shia clashes sponsored by ISI.

Re: The political divide

How can you be so sure? They (chaudhry braathraan) are very confident they will sweep the polls