Re: The Official ELECTIONS 2008 Thread
I believe that in 2008 election, PML(Q) and their allies would get better results than what they got in 2002 election (that includes PPP (sherpao) and independent candidates that joined PML(Q)). The reason is that the boom in economy and unprecedented work done in the country, specially in rural areas, would give PML(Q) a huge advantage over their opponents.
Water is very important for rural areas. What I know, there were almost no water projects that got started or completed during 1988-1999, but in last 8 years around 1000 water projects were started and many of them got completed. Lists of some projects started and completed during last 8 years can be found here:
[Vision 2025 initiated by President Musharraf just after he came to power and consists of 3 phases. Phase I (2001-2006), Phase II (2006-2011) and Phase III (2011=2025)].
http://www.wapda.gov.pk/vision2025/default.asp
In 1999 there was only 5 percent areas in Balochistan where people could go to police or court for justice as they were officially dependent on their chiefs who were mostly cruel to them, but toady Balochs in 100 percent of Balochistan could go to police or court for justice.
During last 8 years, rural areas have seen huge influx of wealth, facilities, and many areas have received schools, amenities (electricity, gas, roads), and jobs etc. Rural areas that were deprived until Musharraf came to power, today owing mobile phone and motorcycle is common in rural areas.
Same prosperity and development is hallmark of Musharraf government in urban areas too, where almost everyone have mobile phones, TV, VCRs, Personal Computers, refrigerators, deep freezers, and many even have air conditioners, plus it seems all have their own transport.. Long queue to pay electricity and gas bills are now over as other facilities were introduced. Commercial areas and roundabouts that use to look fish market because of all those thelas on the roads have disappeared and with many flyovers, deriving became faster, though huge increase of cars and motorcycle, a sign of prosperity, has somewhat congested the roads. Even though I have been visiting the country quite regularly, comparing with state of government offices in 1999 and today, it seems that even government workers have became more efficient in doing their work and serving people. Hence, here are my estimates for next election:
Today Party position in NA members is:
PML(Q): 132
PPP (Sherpao): 19
MQM: 18
MMA: 57
PPP: 55
PML(N): 16
Others: 45 (32 pro-Musharraf)
I expect the numbers in coming NA election would be (I could be wrong, but that is my estimate at present, though that may change as election nears):
PML(Q): 175 - 180
PPP (Sherpao): 19 - 22
MQM: 22 - 25
MMA: 20 -25
PPP: 40 - 45
PML(N): 7 - 10
Others: 40 - 50 (35 - 40 pro-Musharraf)
To get elected, Prime Minister (if eligible) would need: 172 votes (more than 50 percent votes from total strength of 342 MNAs)
To get constitution changed, 228 NA votes are required. That means for BB or NS to become Prime Minister, they would need to change the constitution, and that would require 228 out of 342 votes before they can even bid to become Prime Minister.
I believe that result would be such that pro-Musharraf parties would get enough seats to change constitution without help from opposition.