The next technological powerhouse

Recently Chinese CPUs made their way to global markets and promised to match the CPU speed of Intel and AMD at fraction of the cost… I bet Wall Mart will be selling Chinese CPUs very soon. If the following news is true then it is a technological POWERHOUSE in the making.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/8184129.htm

Posted on Sun, Mar. 14, 2004

China, partner to U.S. tech firms, is also a fast-growing threat

By Kristi Heim

Mercury News

Propelled by a decade of stunning economic growth, China is racing to build a world-class technology industry, a prospect that is exciting and, increasingly, unsettling Silicon Valley.

China’s appeal comes from its huge and fast-developing domestic market and its growing importance as a manufacturing partner for the world’s tech companies.

The uneasiness comes from China’s unexpectedly rapid progress toward its goal of becoming a center of both innovation and manufacturing that could challenge the valley and other U.S. tech centers.

I don't know of a CEO in Silicon Valley today who doesn't have a plan for doing business with China,'' said James Morgan, chief executive of Applied Materials, a Santa Clara maker of equipment for the chip industry that has seen its sales in China grow significantly as it fills demand from Chinese chip-makers. And if they don’t, they better get one fast.‘’

Yet China’s emergence in tech stirs anxiety about U.S. competitiveness. ``The great American Dream is moving to Shanghai,‘’ said Brian Halla, chairman of National Semiconductor, which is opening a state-of-the-art testing and assembly plant near Shanghai as part of a $200 million expansion in China.

Increasingly, China is seeking to use its buying power to dictate separate technical standards for products sold within its borders, hoping to give a leg up to its own producers.

That prospect bothers U.S. tech companies like Intel, which believe in a more global standards approach. Last week, Intel, a major investor in China, said it wouldn’t conform to the Chinese government’s requirement that imported wireless-networking products carry its security technology by June 1, potentially ending sales of some of its wireless chips there.

China still faces some huge obstacles, such as a potential banking crisis stemming from bad loans and a growing gap between urban rich and rural poor that could ignite social tension. An unexpected event like the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak also could be disruptive.

Still, many Chinese express confidence.

Chinese brands are now the top-selling cell phones in China, and that's one-fourth of the cell phone market in the world,'' said Ping Wu, president of Spreadtrum, a Shanghai start-up that designs chips for wireless communications. We are definitely a future star.‘’

Signs of the tech boom are seen throughout China.

In Beijing, where ambitious students such as Rachel Zhu are learning design skills at Peking University’s new school of software, young Chinese spend hours in virtual worlds battling each other in online video games.

On Shanghai’s ultra-modern light-rail system, commuters chat on mobile phones, work on laptops or watch videos on the train’s flat-screen monitors.

Semiconductor factories are rising on former farmland. High-tech districts brimming with start-ups, as well as universities, are replicating the Silicon Valley model in China’s sprawling cities.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., China’s leading chip company, attracts employees with stock options and plans to go public in New York and Hong Kong this week.

Legend, China’s largest PC maker, sells mostly inside China, but is using profits to bankroll an expansion overseas, where it plans to promote its own brand name.

Silicon Valley is contributing: Intel, which employs 2,400 workers throughout China, will have invested more than $1 billion there by the end of 2005, producing chips and hiring Chinese engineers for development work.

And there are signs of a Silicon Valley brain drain, as entrepreneurs such as Wayne Dai, head of a Shanghai chip-design start-up, leave California to stake a claim in China’s tech boom.

But some in the U.S. tech industry worry that the flow of investment and the transfer of technology are helping a partner become an emerging rival.

China already has gobbled up a large share of the world’s manufacturing, churning out televisions, computer monitors, personal computers, mobile phones and other electronics. Now it is quickly moving up to make more sophisticated products such as computer chips and network switches.

Its abundant technical brainpower – about 220,000 bachelor’s degrees in engineering were awarded in 2002, compared with 60,000 in the United States – is enabling the country to move into high-tech design and development work.

And the Chinese government is on a mission to make information technology a pillar of the national economy. It has targeted semiconductors and software, introducing incentives like cheap land and tax breaks for new companies.

Silicon Valley workers displaced by offshoring worry that Chinese engineering graduates may take their place as more high-level technical work moves to China.

``The health of the U.S. tech industry is rapidly declining, and U.S. high-technology leadership is not guaranteed,‘’ said George Scalise, president of the Semiconductor Industry Association and member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

China’s rise as a tech power is being likened to the threat Japan appeared to pose to U.S. economic and technological leadership in the 1980s. Japan, however, never overtook the United States as a leader in high-tech innovation. Some U.S. technologists give China better prospects.

Japan’s smaller population, tradition of management by consensus, and relative lack of entrepreneurship limited its ability to challenge for tech leadership, Scalise said.

``Japan reached a saturation point in terms of its ability to take on more of what was going on in the tech world much, much sooner than China will,‘’ he said.

``There is a true tradition of entrepreneurial energy in China and we are going to see a lot of companies, a lot of new things, going on there because of that.‘’

“China is amazing”, says Microsoft boss Bill Gates. “It is capitalism, but at an unprecedented speed.”

" If your business isn’t making money in China, it probably wouldn’t make money anywhere else "
Carlos Ghosn
President, Nissan Motor Company

" The talent of Chinese software engineers is unbelievable, I can’t believe how effective they are "
Bill Gates
Chairman, Microsoft

CHINA’S EXPORT MIRACLE (excluding Hong Kong) Source: World Bank
1982: $22.32bn
1992: $84.92bn
1998: $207.24bn
2001: $266.15bn
2002: $325.56bn

Just during the past few days,

Korea’s INI Steel Company launched a $500m steel project in the Dalian development zone;
France’s Saint Gobain invested another $70m in one of its existing glass production lines;
Germany’s Siemens opened its 40th office in China, to develop high-end software applications in Nanjing, and warned that it could shift thousands of jobs from Europe and America to China;
while Finnish paper giant Stora Enso invested $1.6bn in a pulp-paper project in South China.

“If you are focused, you can be very profitable”, he says, and adds that for Nissan, China is the world’s second-most profitable car market after the US.

“With companies that don’t make a profit in China, if you look at the case studies, there is always a flaw from the outset,” says Dinesh Paliwal, group executive vice-president at Swiss-Swedish engineering group ABB.

“We set up our factories in China to export, but it is all consumed in the country itself,” reports ABB’s Dinesh Paliwal.

“Ten years ago, China was about low cost,” says Infineon’s Ulrich Schumacher. “Now it is at the forefront of technical development.”

“Infineon can develop twice as fast in China than anywhere else,” he says.

“Engineers are working in three shifts, seven days a week,” enthuses Mr Schumacher. " In Germany that would not be possible, there engineers don’t work on weekends."

see BBC news
Is China a goldmine or minefield?

Great place to invest in without question.

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Saturday, March 13, 2004
Will China be replaced by India?
The rise of China and India will be the most significant event in this century. With different national conditions, advantages and disadvantages, the two countries will take varying ways and adopt differing models. There will be races and competitions, as well as reciprocity and cooperation between them.

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The rise of China and India will be the most significant event in this century. With different national conditions, advantages and disadvantages, the two countries will take varying ways and adopt differing models. There will be races and competitions, as well as reciprocity and cooperation between them.

Last November, an international symposium, “Two Giants — Comparison between China and India” was held in Delhi. Noted scholars including Dr. Nicholas R. Lardy attended the meeting.

Zhang Yuyan, a researcher with the Institute of World Economy under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), who visited India for the first time, simply couldn’t believe Delhi’s urban infrastructure level— no expressway in its real sense, only a second-grade highway linking the airport and Delhi, vehicles of all kinds were running in a disorderly way with herds of livestock wandering about.

Dr. Lardy, who had been in India 20 years before, said, " India hasn’t experienced much change during the period."

The following is the calculation made by Hu Angang and Men Honghua in their article " Comparisons of the comprehensive national strengths between China, the United States, Japan, Russia, and India" published in “Strategies and Management” Issue No.2, 2002.

The ratio of economic resources (GDP) to the world’s total: China 11.16 percent in 2000, and India 5.46 percent;

The ratio of long-term economic growth expectation in the world’s total: China 17.66 percent by 2010 and India 6.27 percent, equivalent to China’s in 1990;

Average years of education: China 7.11 years in 1999, India 5.06 years;

The ratio of exported goods and services in the world’s total: China 5 percent and India less than 0.8 percent.

Besides the figures listed above, the comparison also indicated that indexes in most fields China is far ahead of India. India has to undergo the process of chasing after developed countries as well as China. No wonder Dr. Lardy said openly in India, " India should learn from China’s experience of opening to the outside world."

India’s economy has suddenly become a hot topic of conversation at home and abroad since the beginning of the year. Probably this is connected with an article. In February at a national symposium in Washington, Huang Yasheng, associate professor with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), reiterated his forecast given in his article carried in “Diplomatic Policies” magazine on India’s admirable potential for economic growth. In Huang’s opinion, what positions China and India are currently in are not important, what really matters is their future positions.

“India: Terminator of China’s Sole Dance” was an article carried on the front page of “Economics News” on Feb. 27. It made a comparison between China and India in many aspects as shown below.

Indian banks may be not so good as to serve as examples for the world’s financial industry, but the mistakes they have made are much less serious than those by their Chinese counterparts. A research report by McKinsey & Company indicated that by 2001 only about 10 percent of India’s bank assets were non-performing loans, making up 4.4 percent of net assets and 8.8 percent of gross loans. However, at least more than 25 percent of China’s bank assets, as Chinese banks willingly admitted alone, were non-performing loans.

India’s stock market rejoiced their domestic and international investors in 2003. The performance of China’s capital market paled before India’s. India’s stock indices rose 64.19 percent in total last year and the returns ratios on their six funds in Hong Kong were between 73.76 percent and 106.38 percent. By contrast, at least 800 billion yuan vanished from the Chinese stock market over the past two years.

Foreign experts analyzed that in the past 10 years, the Chinese economy grew at an annual rate of 7 percent, and India 6 percent. But the rate of China’s savings deposits was as high as 40 percent and its foreign capital was injected into economic development. Indian banks absorbed 24 percent deposits and the country had less foreign capital. That means China earns US$7 from an investment of US$40 while India reaps US$6 from an investment of US$24.

The Chinese economy has had a take-off, but China’s private enterprises have not developed accordingly, the country has not brought up companies capable of launching international competitions with their European and American counterparts. Whereas India boasts a large batch of world-level private firms based on software and information systems. A survey conducted in 2000 by CLSA on 25 newly-emerging market economies worldwide showed that India was placed sixth and China 19th in terms of standardized management. Of the world’s top 200 small-sized companies listed by Forbes in 2002, 13 were India’s; four were China’s, all of them in Hong Kong.

Fifty and 25 years ago there was the common topic of discussion about India surpassing China, and so this is not a new topic, Western scholars believed that India would overtake China, because, they asserted, India is a market economy, while China is not. However, 25 years have already elapsed, China has been developing not along this track and has gained world-attracting achievements.

Douglas Zen held that it would not be easy for India to outrun China but India’s advantages must not be taken lightly.

As we have all seen India is improving relations with its neighboring countries and intentionally strengthens its trade ties with China. The Sino-Indian trade volume, though currently worth only US$5 billion, is expected to increase geometrically, if India can effectively remove the hurdles in the way of its advance, such as social, racial and religions problems, and polarization between the rich and the poor.

Hu Angang maintains that the rise of China and India will be the most important event in this century, because their national conditions, strengths and weaknesses are different, the two countries will follow varied roads and adopt differing models. In the long run, their future common point is: These two most populous countries will face the question of rising afresh. But for China, it should turn itself not only into the “world factory”, but also the “world office”. The two countries will face the problem of chasing after and competing with each other, and engaging in reciprocity and cooperation.

By People’s Daily Online

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by imran dhanji: *

Will China be replaced by India?

[/QUOTE]

Yep! when the cows come home.

These articles are from Chinese media and not from Indian media. And the research is done by Chinese. Couple more comparative studies.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~srinivas/C&I%20Economic%20Performance%20Update.pdf

Yeah talk is cheap… Just put a time line as to when will India kick chincom ass. As we speak the gap between India and China is growing in every sector.

China is looking into the future competition just like US. Of all the outshoring jobs going out of developing countries , India is getting 80% of the jobs. These include not just call centres, but software development, computer chip development, automotive design and development, computer animation , graphic design, medical (radiologists). Slowly this will change the economic climate.

India remains “the undisputed offshore leader,” according to Gartner, with China and Russia emerging “as strong contenders” and many other countries eyeing the potential offshore IT services.

US will prefer status quo in Asia, says Japanese professor

By Khalid Hasan

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_17-3-2004_pg7_41

if India develops faster than China, the present gap between the two is not difficult to bridge, and in such event the Sino-India relations may not progress with the same current pace. If China continues to grow with the same current pace and if India is not able to catch up with China, there is a high possibility that India may move closer to the US.

Forget India and China, but dont you think Pakistan is left far behind along with Bangladesh just because it did not invest in education in the past fifity years. And I think it is very difficult to catch up with India and China.

Already Russia , Phillipines , Bulgaria, Ireland are in the race.

Dear boy!!! This thread is neither about India nor about those backward Pakis where 20,000 people starved to death in 2003 if you know what I mean. This is about China the technological powerhouse...

If you really want to know India will catch up with China then do a little math. Take Chinese growth rate and Indian growth rate and just compare.. And do it some where else not here.

INDIA’S LEAD IN INFORMATION TECH. IS NO BIG DEAL TO CHINA !

http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/forumpost.shtml?toppid=54300

CHINA WILL LEAD THE WORLD BEFORE THIS CENTURY IS OUT !!!

http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/forumpost.shtml?toppid=28723&page=1

http://www.asiawind.com/forums/list.php?f=3

Imran, you're in pain man. This is a thread about China. Why get so defensive and post stuff about India? Just be glad China is progressing. If you want to praise India, why not open a seperate thread?

Also quit worrying about Pakistan. We have a better economic track record than you for the past 50 years. Show me your Avg. Annual growth rate for the 80's and I'll show you mine. The 90's were lost but we're getting back. Already at 6% this year and will most likely surpass that the following year. So dont worry about us.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by ChthonicPowers: *
Imran, you're in pain man. This is a thread about China. Why get so defensive and post stuff about India? Just be glad China is progressing. If you want to praise India, why not open a seperate thread?

Also quit worrying about Pakistan. We have a better economic track record than you for the past 50 years. Show me your Avg. Annual growth rate for the 80's and I'll show you mine. The 90's were lost but we're getting back. Already at 6% this year and will most likely surpass that the following year. So dont worry about us.
[/QUOTE]

In the 18th century India was a rich country. Well atleast the kings were rich but not the Indians. China, India, Pak are friggin poor ass countries. You can compare china with India, you cannot compare India with Pak. People should stop this idiocy. The scale is completely different.

Good luck to Pakistan, hop eit becomes the singapore of the Sub continent or atleast the South korea.

India should aim to be the next Japan . While China should try to be US and US should try to be extra terrestrial.

In 2050, when the Indian Per cap GDP is like $30K or so a year, china woul dbe $55 K, US would be around $90k. So the banyas, the mullahs and the chinkoos should keep their Dhotis and beards and bad teeth, respectively in perspective. Uncle is too good, the fundamentals are too strong and their in no skeletons in the closet like Factionalism (India), Islamism (Pakistan) and Legacy of communism compunded by poor sectoral growth int eh financial markets (China)

This technology stuff is a bit too foreign to me, but I can say with all honesty is that India is Yesterday’s Today’s, Tomorrow’s and Forever’s powerhouse. GDP and other development indicators can go to hell, and no other society in this world comes closer to matching what India offers.

The rise of China and India as economic powers is a wake-up call for the United States, and the European Union in particular. "There will be a bipolar world, between Asia and the U.S.," Phisit Pakkasem, former secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, said recently.... Phisit has been tracking geopolitical economic data which show a global comparative advantage lies with China and India. This shift will culminate into the so-called golden age for Asia, or the "Asian Century," in the next 30 to 40 years.... This will have profound economic, political, strategic and social implications, which has prompted an apparent effort by both the U.S. and the EU to thwart this trend, he said. Phisit argued that this was evident in the way both China and India have become U.S. scapegoats as the November presidential election in the U.S. draws near.... "U.S. protectionists now blame India and China for the loss of American jobs," he said. - Editorial comment

Don’t get so angry Imran. I suggest India concentrates on actually achieving (rather than just predicting) more FDI, than the pitiable amount it gets at the moment. Not only is it far, far, far, far behind the technological powerhouse of Great China, but it also ranks unfavorably against Pakistan in this area. :slight_smile:

Go China. :k:

http://www.deccanherald.com/deccanherald/sep05/b6.asp

India way behind China in attracting FDI: report

Unless New Delhi presses ahead with sustained policy reforms and also re-aligns rupee against other major currencies, India will not be able to overtake China that attracted $52.7 billion last year, according to the World Investment Report (WIR) 2003. India received only $3.4 billion last year and continues to remain an under-performer in FDI performance as against China which is in “the front-runners” of 20 leading economies.

Disturbingly, India ranks 120th in UNCTAD inward FDI performance index while Pakistan is ranked 116th. The UNCTAD’s Inward FDI Performance Index ranks countries by the FDI they receive relative to their economic size. It is calculated as the ratio of the country’s share in global FDI inflows to its share in global GDP. But Asia’s “long-term prospects” for investments in both low and high-value-added sectors remain “bright”, said Dr James Zhan of the WIR 2003, which was released yesterday. The WIR 2003 forecast that the global foreign direct investment is likely to “rebound in 2004” from the projected level of $651 billion this year. FDI flows declined for the second year in a row, down from $107 billion in 2001 to $95 billion in 2002.

The global FDI had sharply dropped from $1.4 trillion in 2000 to $651 billion last year. Among other factors, the drop in cross-border mergers and amalgamations was largely responsible for bringing down global FDI. The mergers and amalgamations which were at the heart of continued FDI expansion in the last decade experienced a steep fall from $1.1 trillion in 2000 to $370 billion, according to UNCTAD secretary general Rubens Ricupero. The United States and the United Kingdom were most affected by the drought in FDI last year, while China continued to surge ahead by hogging $52.7 billion. In fact, Asia and the Pacific region are least affected by the shrinkage of FDI flows last year. Four countries — China, India, Malaysia, and Philippines — in Asia remained unscathed by global economic developments such as deceleration in economic growth, falling stock market valuations, lower corporate profitability, and winding down of privatisation in some countries.

While Hong Kong experienced a sharp fall in FDI flows - down from $23.8 billion in 2001 to $13.7 billion, others such as Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand also faced lower FDI last year. All these countries face a rough competition from China in attracting larger flows of FDI, according to WIR 2003. More worryingly, the undervalued Chinese currency “renminbi” is adversely affecting the investment and trade expansion in Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea, and India according to Dr James Zhan. He said while the currencies in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Korea were realigned in tune with the gyrations in dollar and Euro, the Chinese renminbi, which is pegged to dollar (with 8 renminbi being equal to one dollar) did not undergo any appreciation despite a sharp drop in dollar. Global investors in the US and Japan have recently stepped up their campaign to force the Chinese administration to appreciate the value of renminbi, but the Chinese central bank government is reported to have ruled on Wednesday that there will be any change in the value of renminbi in relation to dollar. The recent SARS virus has not adversely affected investment prospects of China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, as FDI is a long-term activity. The WIR 2003 made a passionate plea to members of the World Trade Organisation to consider the multilateral rules for investment saying it could positively impact on global investment flows.

hahahah :hehe:

Malik uncle, did you know when it comes to adjusting official financial summaries from china, some of us in the banking area usually discard up to 20 basis points depending on the sector. Jao yaar… kuch knowledgeable baat bhi kar liya karo..hamesha cut’n’paste sey apni naivete dikhatey rehtey ho.. :hehe:

Malik is righ tho..there is no comparison in FDI driven growth. The question you have to ask is , how much of that is in sectors which are still clsoed and profit repatriatization is not allowed to establish other centers of production in say countries like Pakistan. Once these reforms are put in place as asked by China’s uncle, i.e. USA, you will see FDI inflows balance out. India need not go after FDI as it’s financial markets are more mature. You can still get FII flows to counter the FDI investment. One school of thought in developmental economics says that FII flows mean that domesti cndustries are the way to promote growth with little chance of capital flight as long as they perform. The FDI school lays more empahsis on foreign knowhow since these skills are lacking thereby making it impossible for local industry to ever develop.

How many chinese companies are industry leaders… :wink:

Please don’t insult India by comparing with China. India is a super economy and a super power. It falls under different category.

Now, can someone provide export figures for China+Hong Kong for 2003.
And I will post some pictures of chinese cities, close to 166 that still need lots of improvements to take them out of the biggest slums of the world. Poor chincoms. :slight_smile:

I never thought i’d see the day where a pakistani is mocking the indian economy. lol :rotfl: