Neither you nor IRI understand the political realities of Pakistan (or trying to ignore). No matter what people say in a poll on election day they are going to vote for their zaat, braDAAree, fiqah, race and ethnical grounds.
My friend, for some reason we as Pakistanis have not learned over the years. For us "khaney k daant aur and dekhaaaney k daath aur and sadly this is the case in almost all aspects of life for us.
Also, polls include people who don't vote. "Polls" can only reflect on elections when more than 70-80% turn up for voting and that is almost never going to happen in Pakistan.