Solar Power plant - is it possible?

[Zafra]

Bahawalpur to have $1.5bn world’s largest solar power plant - Pakistan - DAWN.COM

900 MW of solar power. First one active on 14 August. Then 250 by 25 December and all complete by 2016. The chinese are saying this so it is possible, but the question remains of the infrastructure to address all these energy issues.

Our issue is capacity generation. But our issue is also transmission lines and illegal usage of power supply without paying for it.

[Guppshupper]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

Non sense and idiotic projects. They are good for posters and political propaganda only.
The costs are so high they are not feasible at all.

Last i remember the tariff for solar power was around 27 or 29 Rupees per kWh. And at that time the tariff for furnace based projects was around 18 per kWH (I am talking about the time when furnace oil was around 60k to 70k per Tonne - Now its 44k per Tonne).

With current current recovery issues and circular debts - how do you justify a 30Rs per kWH tariff? Who is going to pay for this high cost and who is going to collect?

So, in short these massive solar power projects are nothing but annoying haemmorhoids designed to make life of pakistani consumers miserable. Only benefit is to the thekedaars and politicians who use as political propaganda.

[Anwer_Pasha]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

If any one of You can search about many billion Kalar Kahar Wind power project of Showbaz , Just 3 years ago

I am sorry , many billions is just an idea , not knowing the actual cost

[Monk]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

Whole energy thing is a big joke to ppl of pakistan.
A country where if you drop and egg on the floor it gets fried before you can pick it up, we complain about having energy problem ?
Just shows how un innovative our brains are, and how we look at our issue through technology which was developed by countries with different needs.

As far Govt role, they are s#$% scared to let go of their ability of thief-ing poor peoples’ money, when ever they want, in term of electricity bills. If they taught people how to independent and live off the grid, who would pay them bhata tax on bills?
Vultures have to be vultures.

As far as people, they just being people, not thinking, they build their own house. in some cases find their own water, With out any central authority guiding them or supporting them.
On same model they could have solar power, build in their own houses ,with the help of mistry and electrician, with out looking at Govt. Its not a rocket science.
But sheep is going to be sheep.

[Captain1]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

@Zafra

Bahawalpur to have $1.5bn world’s largest solar power plant - Pakistan - DAWN.COM

900 MW of solar power. First one active on 14 August. Then 250 by 25 December and all complete by 2016. The chinese are saying this so it is possible, but the question remains of the infrastructure to address all these energy issues.

Our issue is capacity generation. But our issue is also transmission lines and illegal usage of power supply without paying for it.

If we can fix transmission lines and work on recovering bills (minimize auto-theft) that will solve major chunk of problems as we run into circular debt, load-shedding etc.

[krash]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

Even today, installed capacity in Pakistan is 22000 MW while demand is around 17000MW.
But, nearly half of the installed capacity is idle because generation is expensive and the govt. does not have the money to pay the subsidy for it.

What we need is to shift the generation to cheaper sources so that the need for subsidy is eliminated.

[hanibal]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

Photovoltaic prices have fallen from $76.67 per watt in 1977 to an estimated $0.36 per watt in 2014, for crystalline silicon solar cells.[59][60] This is seen as evidence supporting Swanson’s law, an observation similar to the famous Moore’s Law, that states that solar cell prices fall 20% for every doubling of industry capacity.

By 2011, the price of PV modules per MW had fallen by 60% since 2008, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates, putting solar power for the first time on a competitive footing with the retail price of electricity in some sunny countries; an alternative and consistent price decline figure of 75% from 2007 to 2012 has also been published,[61] though it is unclear whether these figures are specific to the United States or generally global. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from PV is competitive with conventional electricity sources in an expanding list of geographic regions,[5] particularly when the time of generation is included, as electricity is worth more during the day than at night.[62] There has been fierce competition in the supply chain, and further improvements in the levelised cost of energy for solar lie ahead, posing a growing threat to the dominance of fossil fuel generation sources in the next few years.[63] As time progresses, renewable energy technologies generally get cheaper,[64][65] while fossil fuels generally get more expensive:

The less solar power costs, the more favorably it compares to conventional power, and the more attractive it becomes to utilities and energy users around the globe. Utility-scale solar power can now be delivered in California at prices well below $100/MWh ($0.10/kWh) less than most other peak generators, even those running on low-cost natural gas. Lower solar module costs also stimulate demand from consumer markets where the cost of solar compares very favorably to retail electric rates

Gives you indication how cost of solar power gen is going to down…

if anyone have asked me in 2005 and 06 that 1000 MW is possible, i would have called him an idiot without a pause, because possible or not it was not feasible.. as the cost of immense and technology was not reliable enough to justify the investment… and then comes Green-Euro, where the Mediterranean side went for Solar option and UK focused on SEA/RIVER Waves energy… and today the solar project of 1000 MW is possible and feasible as one can save good amount on consumption of fuel… i.e. no recurring costs..

Now compare to other green projects, solar and wind project can be completed quickly… so theoretically and practically it is possible to achieve it.

[Med911]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

@Guppshupper

Non sense and idiotic projects. They are good for posters and political propaganda only.
The costs are so high they are not feasible at all.

Last i remember the tariff for solar power was around 27 or 29 Rupees per kWh. And at that time the tariff for furnace based projects was around 18 per kWH (I am talking about the time when furnace oil was around 60k to 70k per Tonne - Now its 44k per Tonne).

With current current recovery issues and circular debts - how do you justify a 30Rs per kWH tariff? Who is going to pay for this high cost and who is going to collect?

So, in short these massive solar power projects are nothing but annoying haemmorhoids designed to make life of pakistani consumers miserable. Only benefit is to the thekedaars and politicians who use as political propaganda.

Isnt the expense not offset by the amount saved from not having to buy expensive foreign oil ?

And doesn’t increased economic activity owing to increased generation also diminish some of the cost ? Industry may prefer to pay a higher price over having their factories go idle for hours on end.

[Guppshupper]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

@Med911

Isnt the expense not offset by the amount saved from not having to buy expensive foreign oil ?

And doesn’t increased economic activity owing to increased generation also diminish some of the cost ? Industry may prefer to pay a higher price over having their factories go idle for hours on end.

The cost i quoted included the cost of foreign oil.

When you are evaluating cost you need to see how much money it costs to generate certain number of units over a period of time.

With fuel based your cost is spread over the period - say 20 years and it costs 18Rs. per Unit of electricity.

With Solar, you have a massive one time cost - and over the period of 20 years it costs 29 Rs. per Unit.

So in short - fuel based have periodical expense , while solar has one time expense. But if you compare total cost - Solar is very very expensive. Only benefit is lower carbon footprint and less dependency on oil - thats it. In terms of cash, solar has a long way to go before its cost is affordable for economy like ours.

Solar is ideal for off the grid areas and use at localized level - i.e. homes, or buildings. Massive concentrated generation is useless for country like ours.

[hanibal]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

@Guppshupper

The cost i quoted included the cost of foreign oil.

When you are evaluating cost you need to see how much money it costs to generate certain number of units over a period of time.

With fuel based your cost is spread over the period - say 20 years and it costs 18Rs. per Unit of electricity.

**With Solar, you have a massive one time cost - and over the period of 20 years it costs 29 Rs. per Unit.
**
So in short - fuel based have periodical expense , while solar has one time expense. But if you compare total cost - Solar is very very expensive. Only benefit is lower carbon footprint and less dependency on oil - thats it. In terms of cash, solar has a long way to go before its cost is affordable for economy like ours.

Solar is ideal for off the grid areas and use at localized level - i.e. homes, or buildings. Massive concentrated generation is useless for country like ours.

wow, how do you reach that number?

[Guppshupper]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

I just remembered from memory. Upon googling i found this document saying 27cents during 10 years.

http://www.nepra.org.pk/Tariff/Upfront/UPFRONT%20SOLAR%20INFORMATION.PDF

[Zafra]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

Okay I think those numbers have changed significantly in the last 4 years.

Also remember that fuel generation costs are subsidized, in addition don’t forget we provide the fuel to the IPP and then we pay them to generate the fuel at a rate higher than actual production costs.

[Sachaydino]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

@hanibal

Gives you indication how cost of solar power gen is going to down…

if anyone have asked me in 2005 and 06 that 1000 MW is possible, i would have called him an idiot without a pause, because possible or not it was not feasible.. as the cost of immense and technology was not reliable enough to justify the investment… and then comes Green-Euro, where the Mediterranean side went for Solar option and UK focused on SEA/RIVER Waves energy… and today the solar project of 1000 MW is possible and feasible as one can save good amount on consumption of fuel… i.e. no recurring costs..

Now compare to other green projects, solar and wind project can be completed quickly… so theoretically and practically it is possible to achieve it.

Instead, solar energy to individual homes is much preferable rather than creating yet another white elephant and source of commission in foreign exchange. To me nuclear power generation is the only solution for power crisis in Pakistan. Pakistan should follow India and make similar pact with Canada for importing enriched uranium and reactors for this purpose.

[Doppleganger]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

Pakistan didn’t get waiver from NSG. Unfair, yes I know but Canada is America’s *****.

We are also forgetting about what to do of the nuclear waste? Even shipping it out like US would want would cost money.

PS the cheap source of solar panels is China (subsidized or low quality?), so why hasn’t China not moved out of coal rapidly to solar? This isn’t a desi country with red tape and lazy people.

[Anwer_Pasha]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

We don’t have qualified people for this
At least to start master classes for Wind , Coal and solar without any delay

[hanibal]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

@Guppshupper

I just remembered from memory. Upon googling i found this document saying 27cents during 10 years.

http://www.nepra.org.pk/Tariff/Upfront/UPFRONT%20SOLAR%20INFORMATION.PDF

at that time tarrif was this high, but tarif is around Rs 17/Kwh, you can search it on Alternative Energy Board’s website…

[Zero_one]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

@Guppshupper

So in short - fuel based have periodical expense , while solar has one time expense. But if you compare total cost - Solar is very very expensive. Only benefit is lower carbon footprint and less dependency on oil - thats it. In terms of cash, solar has a long way to go before its cost is affordable for economy like ours.

I don’t know about the benefits for the economy but at least one example showed me sofar that the breakeven doesn’t take decades … i installed myself a 1.5KWp unit including dry batteries at my grandparents house in a village close to Sargodha. their monthly bill was around Rs.4k. Panels and Charge controller were German products, Batteries and the Inverter purchased in Pakistan.

6 persons use 5 rooms and 2 bathrooms. 12 Tubelights, 1 Full size Refridgerator, 1 24" TV, 1 sat receiver, 1 iron, 7 ceiling and 3 pedastel fans. Of course not all power consumer are active at the same time during normal use but we managed to to test run everything for several hours and no issues. Now they got 24h/day power with no interruption and the whole set up cost around Rs. 220k … break even in around 5-6 years and not 20 years … knowing that the lifecycle of the components installed at site is minimum 10-12 years if serviced carefully (solar panels even upto 25 years with 85% performance guarantee)

Yet this set up was done in 2 days time without long term survey and measurements in order to evaluate and plan a unit properly … means their is room for improvement

[Zero_one]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

A energy production mix is required to tackle this issue in a proper manner

In the South you’ve wind, in the west you’ve enough heat and in the north there is still some water that can be used … yet the majority of consumer of power are in the east … a mixture of proper load distribution, proportionate transmission lines, education on energy consumption and of course strict tariff enforcement is the basis and make no mistake if this is addressed now the results will show in a few years time and maybe in a decades times things get to normal status … honestly it’s one bis mess but that’s what ad-hocism brings to the table

[Med911]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

@Sachaydino

Instead, solar energy to individual homes is much preferable rather than creating yet another white elephant and source of commission in foreign exchange. To me nuclear power generation is the only solution for power crisis in Pakistan. Pakistan should follow India and make similar pact with Canada for importing enriched uranium and reactors for this purpose.

Yeah, but Nuclear would take years to come online. Considering the potential water shortage in the future, wouldnt small dams be preferable?

[Med911]

Re: Solar Power plant - is it possible?

@Guppshupper

The cost i quoted included the cost of foreign oil.

When you are evaluating cost you need to see how much money it costs to generate certain number of units over a period of time.

With fuel based your cost is spread over the period - say 20 years and it costs 18Rs. per Unit of electricity.

With Solar, you have a massive one time cost - and over the period of 20 years it costs 29 Rs. per Unit.

So in short - fuel based have periodical expense , while solar has one time expense. But if you compare total cost - Solar is very very expensive. Only benefit is lower carbon footprint and less dependency on oil - thats it. In terms of cash, solar has a long way to go before its cost is affordable for economy like ours.

Solar is ideal for off the grid areas and use at localized level - i.e. homes, or buildings. Massive concentrated generation is useless for country like ours.

They should consider subsidizing it by charging wealthier consumers a bit more on their bills. The poor dont generally use half as much as the wealthier consumers and yet, end up paying the same price. An extra 11 Rs per Unit wont break their backs im sure. I mean, I think they would prefer paying more over having to endure 18 hours of load shedding… All other options (perhaps more viable ones) will take years. This may work as a stop gap measure until other options are available.

Perhaps politics precludes selectively raising rates on particular consumers for the benefit of others, but im just throwing it out there.