Re: Results and their consequences
It is really funny how people see things. For some it seems that votes fell against Musharraf policy but could not see reality in front of their nose. Please think, read and than think again :)
What was Musharraf agenda ... initially it started with development of Pakistan, eradication of corruption and state being secular (not having control of religion in state). After 2001, agenda included cracking down on Jihadis and religious factions strongly. Now, even though most parties are involved in corruption, no party is openly against development and eradication of corruption, so one can forget this agenda. Second agenda was that to make Pakistan secular (take religion out of state control and tolerance ... or one can say, enlightened moderation) and cracking down on Jihadis, there are two groups in Pakistan, pro and against. It is because of second agenda, secular parties like PPP, MQM and NAP is considered as natural ally of Musharraf.
After 2002 election, President Musharraf wanted PPP (Amin Fahim) to take up Prime Minister post and form government along with other pro-Musharraf parties. Unfortunately, BB did not allowed Amin Fahim to become Prime Minister or even let PPP to take up Sindh government. Result was that President had to form government using PML(Q) that throughout while in office used their office to keep Musharraf agenda from implementing easily. For instance, repealing Hudood ordinance completely, taking religion out of passport, restricting religion in school education, restricting Madrasa influences in Pakistan, etc etc. Actually, at many instance, like Hudood ordinance and Passport issues, PPP completely supported but it was PML(Q) that kept objecting.
What is the situation after 2008 election? All non secular parties and those entities in PML(Q) that wanted government interfering with religion, thrown out of Parliament and secular elements got elected in big numbers. In present election we have parties as follow. Not secular parties (pro government interfering with religion) are MMA and PML(N) plus most in PML(Q). [Actually there are few secular candidates in PML(N) too ... but they contest election showing themselves as non-secular]. Secular parties (anti government interfering with religion) are PPP, MQM, NAP as well as some in PML(Q) plus many independent candidates.
Present situation is that PPP would form government with probably those parties that are considered secular. That would happen regardless of Musharraf stay or not and regardless of it is seen that his agenda is implemented in Pakistan with him on scene or not.
We should understand that PML(N) and PPP has completely different agendas in the way country should be run. One is secular party and other is half-cooked religious party. Both have different views on how to deal with jihadis (main problem at present in Pakistan). Latest party position is that PML(N) could not give anything to PPP what PPP count not get without PML(N). Worse is that, PML(N) is in position to demand something from PPP if they form coalition, that is government of Punjab. But on the other hand PPP does not need PML(N) to form government.
**For instance: **MQM would be part of any government not because of their seats value but because without MQM, Karachi would be volatile and that could destabilise any government in Pakistan as well as Sindh. Hence, PPP + MQM + ANP + independent secular candidates (anti Jihadi secular parties) could easily make government in Islamabad ... but PPP might add PML(Q) to make government in all 4 provinces, including Punjab and Balochistan. PPP + PML(N) without other parties mean they coalition can make government in Islamabad, Sindh and Punjab only.
Those that consider this election as anti-Musharraf, though it seems that way, are living completely in fool paradise. We should know that in politics, it is not individual that counts, it is what that individual stands for. Musharraf stands for enlightened moderation, that is tolerance towards others and state not interfering with religion. In this respect, 2008 election result is completely pro-Musharraf agenda.
Even in political terms, many consider MQM as strong supporter of President Musharraf and many also consider that President Musharraf agenda is PPP agenda as well as NAP agenda (both are secular parties and pro enlightened moderation). In this election, MQM came out very strongly (increased their 13 seats to 19) and PPP also came out very strongly (did not increased that many seats as they had 63 seats in 2002 before splinter group broke away, but today PPP have 87 seats and are in a position to form government) and NAP also gained seats, while MMA completely routed out.
Actually, pro enlightened moderation parties ... PPP (63) plus MQM (13) plus ANP (0) had only 76 NA seats in 2002. Today, PPP (87) plus MQM (19) plus ANP (10) have 116 NA seats in 2008 election ... plus there are few splinter PPP candidates also won the election as independent or on PML(Q) seats ... plus PPP (Sherpao) also won their 2 seats. **On the other hand, anti enlightened moderation party, MMA lost most seats. On the other hand, PML(N) and PML(Q) are both muslim league parties with similar political views only swapped seats or lost seats.**
What I see is that, whatever President Musharraf stood for (enlightened moderation and kicking Jihadis hard), it can be implemented today more easily in Pakistan than before this election. As for Jihadi supporters, supporters of MMA and those who support state interfering in religion, lost big ground after this election.