Re-emergence of PML-Q

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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While the bulk of time, energy and focus of the media and the politically-aware Pakistanis is used up by PPP, PML-N and PTI, the fact that Qaaf League is silently regaining its ground goes almost unnoticed.

Just as we speak, another three Noon-League leaders in KPK, including Saranjam Khan, and a local PTI leader, are said to have defected to the Qaaf-League camp.

Defected leaders rejoining PML-Q

Azeem Lakhvi meets Pervaiz Elahi PML-Q ropes in another electable

Two PTI leaders join PML-Q

PML-Q manages to win back Gills of Nankana

PTI leader joins PML-Q

PTI defections to PML-Q continue

Qaaf League was literally on the deathbed just a few months ago but managed to win back its life as it gets bigwigs back to its fold.

One of the reasons could be the huge amount of development funds besides deputy premiership Qaaf League received from the PPP-led government.

Another reason maybe the policy of promising tickets to every reverter. While PML-N and the PTI are still in the process of laying down their list of candidates, Chaudhrys have already promised tickets to their hopefuls. Also, seat adjustment arrangements with the PPP might have also created some space for some of the returnees. Prospects of split voting due to PML-N-PTI battle, coupled with support of PPP’s committed vote bank might have added to the allure.

Does it mean that the Qaaf League has actually outsmarted the PML-N and the PTI? How things will start to unfold when the caretakers arrive?

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The title should be amended to dhobi ka kutta, ghar ka bhi aur ghaat ka bhi!

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

I said before never underestimate the Chaudhry brothers. I am willing to bet that PML-Q will take 10 to 15 NA seats in coming elections with the help of electable's and with Wattoo unleashed the prospects for Punjab looks interesting.
What i foresee is South Punjab for PPP, with Central & Upper divided between PMLN & PTI and remaining rural areas for different fractions of Muslim League.

Clearly this means with the help of MQM, JUI, ANP, PMLQ the PPP will be in position to form hung government. Maybe Zardari can throw chip of Punjab to PMLN to pacify them, but prospects look gloomy for PTI at least.

Interesting !

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

It is sad indeed, yes it is PTI’s loss but at the same time this alliance will surely provide no relief to average Pakistani because these people are ONLY interested in power. PTI’s party elections have obviously pused many of these leaders back to PMLQ because they won’t get the ticket assurance before elections are over. Although PTI will lose members but i am not too disappointed because they are sticking to ideology rather than POLITICS only.

Things are not ALL rosy for PPP-PMLQ alliance though, they are still discussing terms and conditions and PMLQ are not happy about the idea of contesting election on PPP’s election symbol
PPP, PML-Q at odds over election symbols – The Express Tribune

If dozens of PMLQ leaders are going back to PMLQ, it means they have been assured tickts and PPP candidates will be the losers and i am sure many of them may ditch PPP and some PMLQ hopefuls may not get promised tickets either so it may turn really nasty at election time so PMLQ’s smart politics may come back to haunt them and as STONECOLD said “Dhobi ka kutta na ghar ka na ghat ka”

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

Zardari and chaudhary brothers have proved that they are very politically mature, plus record development was carried out in southern Punjab during the chaudhary's, their alliance coupled with separate candidates from Pmln and Pti will give them benefit.

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

mil baant key khanay main hi maturity hai.

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

You are forgetting something Imran Khan stubbornness & lack of vision when he was criticizing only PMLN is a main reason that by elections PPP will be in position to form government again.

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

He is sticking to his position on the status quo and blaming everyone who has been part of it. Today we can rap him for turning on Sharif, but if tomorrow PML-N and PTI form government, we will still put him in the dock. Knowing the equation, I guess he decided to stick to his stance.

Secondly, he also knows the importance of winning from Punjab where the real rival is PML-N. Another thing is that if he joins hands with Sharif, then what will be the purpose of a separate party?

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

If this is PTI logic and strategy then it's flawed from the start, Pakistan society is polarized to such extent that even in next 20 years a single entity will not secure enough votes to form the government in province let alone at federal level. In the end he is also losing higher moral ground due to induction of already tested politicians in the party. The PTI is quiet popular in social media & oversees Pakistanis I will give you that but on ground their is nothing much and whatever the momentum builds on tsunami wave it's gone after the blunders of last six months.

IK plan for single march and attacking only PMLN is strengthening the hands of PPP. Mind you PTI is also losing the war of arguments too, which is evident on talk shows & on social media such as Gupshup. Did he learn anything from his career of 16+ years in politics ?

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

Although this thread is turning into an anti PTI one, I cannot digest how people are ignoring such a milestone decision as party elections. This has never been done before and PTI is about to become first truly democratic party. Yes turncoats will leave PTI because of elections but this is a precedent which will benefit PTI in the long term.

And firenze: IK is criticizing both PML-N and PPP but more PML-N cuz of punjab's importance. So lets not turn eye from PPP criticism when he clearly has used words against PPP as well.

NS is in politics longer than IK is. What kind of maturity did he show when he LET zardari become president of the country and showed brotherly support to him and stayed friendly opposition till oct 2011. What was that about?

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

Coming back to the topic: Shujaat Hussain and Pervaz Elahi are astute politicians and are prime example of charthe suraj k pujari. They are becoming MQM equivalent to ally with government at any cost. Politicians from punjab know that they will get tickets and most likely power if they join em and hence the re-emergence.

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

What party elections? IK can't be replace neither Nawaz shareef but yeh rest of the designations can. Phunny.

By the way get your facts correct Jammat Islami is having free and fair party elections from decades. PTI simpletons are making everything as they are doing it first, get over it.

The argument for why he critisize PMLN more is as much absurd as it can get, so the ultimate goal is get the seats?

As far NS & Zardari they are mature enough to go well around from last 4+ years thus saving country from martial law & putting in right track for free and fair elections and ultimately peaceful power transition.

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

even if PTI wins elections or any seats, I can still say that free and fair elections in pakistan will remain a myth. I dont think that we have a democracy right now. Its not their credit that government is lasting the whole term. Gen Kayani had SEVERAL chances to impose martial law in the country but he did not and kudos to him. Werna AZ and NS ne koi kasar nahi chori thhi (Corruption, clash with judiciary, memo scandal, etc etc) The blunders AZ and NS have been aplenty. So lets not go into maturity aspect of our politicians. We do have mature politicians in both PPP and PML-N but NS is not one of them. AZ is mature yet extremely cunning.

And JI holds party elections but only through their shuura and not the members. Their shura is not elected but it elects the leader. So at such a large scale, THIS is a first! So you need to dig deep in the facts too :) And this election will go as up as IK. Just wait and watch. biggest challenge is to complete it in due time.

The thing is that PTI critics fail to recognize anything good that it has done or started doing... Declaration of assets (separate discussion as to WHY its important), presenting policies seminars (people call them wishlists yeah), and party elections!. These are the things of a democratic party and these things happen in UK! IK is taking a huge gamble by trying to change the dynamics of the politics for the better (in case it comes to power by any chance)

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

firenze, I wanted to debate the politics of Chaudhrys in a non-partisan way, but you want to turn it into an IK-exclusive topic. While discussing politics will inevitably bring in the PTI factor, may I sugget you to please open a new thread for thrashing out PTI's politics?

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

^ yaar mysterious guy bring the PTI in the thread. I will clarify I don't hate PTI & PMNL wholly just what is wrong is wrong and what is right is right.

For some IK ring the bell for me not much so, even though i still believe he is clean and deserve a chance, also being the popular leader of Pakistan he deserve more scrutiny.

We can now talk as much about chauhdrys as you like.

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

I think it will be fair to acknowledge that Chaudhrys know the art of survival and political manoeuvering. We can dispute their past and question their integrity, but what we cannot challenge is their prowess for thriving in realpolitik.

Another aspect of their politics is that they generally like to keep a low profile and do not go making tall claims. Knowing their worth and turf well, they do not waste their energies on extending their outreach. Post-Musharraf Chaudhrys also seem to have come to terms with the role of 'political extras' with great content. They know as long as the nation continues to give split electoral verdict, they will remain in business and can always offer their services to the highest bidder 'in the larger national interest'.

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

I brought PTI because it was relevant since a lot of former PMLQ members are leaving PTI to go back to PMLQ because of Imran's reluctance to award party tickets and PMLQ's assurance which i believe is totally relevant to the thread.

Coming back, i still think PMLQ will get a few tickets but a lot of their members will leave them close to elections, PPP won't be able to withdraw dozens of candidates in favour of PMLQ. To be honest Chauhdaries didn't have any other option so they have to stick with PPP.

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

Unlike Pakistan, in western countries analysts analyse coming election using last election voting figures, as voting figures of last election tells a lot. Normally, party in power loses votes and party not in power gain votes, especially if government performance is bad.

In 2008, BB accidental death must have given surge to PPP supports and votes. NS must also be getting sympathetic votes especially from right wing voters and religiously retards hurt by Lal Masjid incident. Most likely, both parties would lose out in coming election, as whatever happened is now thing of the past.

Pakistan election Commission not only declared number of seats different party took in 2008, they also declared number of votes different party took in each Province. Fortunately, I kept the record and I am putting them down here. As I do not have web reference, if anyone finds doubt on the figures, they can write to PEC to confirm the figures.

National Assembly results from different Provinces and vote counts in each Province (2008 general election):

Punjab (148 seats):
PML(Q): votes 6,077,092 ..... seats 29
PML(N): votes 6,026,721 ..... seats 61
PPP: .... votes 5,943,504 ..... seats 43
MMA: ....votes 44,281 ......... seats 0
MQM: ....votes 16,982 ......... seats 0
Others: ...votes 2,813,432 .... seats 14

PML(Q) obtained more votes but secured less seats than PML(N) because of tactical voting and PML(N) seat adjustment with PPP. There was some confusion in PML(Q) too as they might be thinking that next government would be of PPP (possible due to Musharraf deal with PPP) resulting in many PML(Q) strong candidates contesting election as independent. Advantage of contesting election as independent is that a candidate winning seats as independent can decide after election where candidate would stand and which party to work with.

As for PML(N), their votes were not entirely their own, as they had support of PTI, JI, most right wing parties as well as terrorist voters (Taliban and sectarian outfits based in Punjab) in 2008 election. In 2013 election PML(N) would have no support from PTI or JI (as both would be contesting election themselves). On the other hand, it looks like PML(N) has lost many of their voters to PTI (both are right wing parties) and that would affect PMLN vote banks and seats.

Like PML(N), PML(Q) is also right wing party but under Musharraf they have given a mix image. PML(Q) seen split in party and lost many elected members after 2008 election, though it seems some are coming back. I do not see any reason to believe that PML(Q) lost voters rather I believe they must have increased their vote bank. Their seat adjustment with PPP would help them too in gaining more seats, especially in Punjab, and squeezing PML(N) into extinction. Obviously, if APML (Musharraf party) would get into election arena than PML(Q) may suffer, but that only time could tell.

All I mentioned is speculative on circumstances prevailing and 2008 election figures. Only Allah can tell what really would happen and thus reality will be known only after 2013 election results.

*Vote counts in other provinces along with NA seats party won: *

SINDH (61 seats)
PPP: ..... votes 3,598,589 ...... seats 30
MQM: .... votes 2,542,993 ...... seats 19
PML(Q): .votes 1.011,621 .... seats 5
PML(F): . votes 530,505 ....... seats 5
NPP: ..... votes 185,392 ....... seats 1
PML(N): ..votes 139,674 ....... seats 0
MMA: .... votes 65,558 ......... seats 0
ANP: ..... votes 39,071 ......... seats 0
Others: .. votes 313,312 ...... seats 0

NWFP or KP (35 seats)
PPP: ...... votes 695,631 ....... seats 9
ANP: ...... votes 609,632 ...... seats 10
PML(Q): ..votes 538,837 ....... seats 5
MMA: ......votes 485,862 ....... seats 4
PML(N): ...votes 460,863 ...... seats 4
PPP(Shp): votes 140,707 ...... seats 1
MQM: ......votes 4,965 .......... seats 0
Others: ...votes 549,228 ........ seats 2

BALOCHISTAN (14 seats)
PML(Q): ..votes 317,238 ....... seats 4
PPP: .......votes 297,551 ....... seats 4
MMA: ......votes 175,840 ....... seats 2
ANP: .......votes 51,714 ......... seats 0
PML(N): ...votes 47,225 ....... seats 0
MQM: ......votes 5503 ........... seats 0
Others: ...votes 423,687 ....... seats 4

ISLAMABAD (2 seats)
PML(N): ...votes 106,962 ....... seats 2
PPP: ....... votes 71,211 ........ seats 0
PML(Q): ...votes 45,029 ......... seats 0
MMA: ...... votes 1257 ........... seats 0
MQM: .......votes 370 ............ seats 0
ANP: ........votes 62 .............. seats 0
Others: ....votes 15,113 ........ seats 0

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

Forget PML(Q), PPP is hoping that they may emerge as the largest party in next election (even in Punjab) with more seats than last election. Here are the reasons for their hope (so be prepared to see Shazada Bilawal as your King).

PPP relying on technical factors to win coming polls | The Nation

PPP relying on technical factors to win coming polls

LAHORE - However strange as it may sound, but it is true that the PPP government is relying too much on a number of technical factors to win the coming elections rather than its actual performance, TheNation has learnt.

This is despite the fact that prospective PPP candidates have pleaded before the leadership many a times in the recent past that party is sure to lose most of the electoral battles if the power outages continue unabated and the common man continues to suffer at the hands of massive inflation.

Delay in execution of development projects has also been another concern of the party Parliamentarians in this context.

Credible sources in the PPP told this scribe that some party stalwarts have briefed the top hierarchy about four different factors that might prove a helping hand for the party by default when the new elections approach.

It may sound quite strange to many, but it seems credible that PPP would be having an edge over all other parties due the new ground realities despite poor performance in the last four years, said the sources.

These close aides believe that exclusion of 3.7 million bogus votes from the new electoral rolls would prove highly beneficial for the PPP as all these votes were previously cast in favour of the PML-N candidates in different constituencies. To substantiate their point, they have reportedly quoted statistics of the Election Commission according to which around half of the total registered votes had been struck down only in two constituencies of Lahore and Rawalpindi. Both had been won by PML-N candidates in 2008 general elections.

[It means half of total registered voters in two constituencies were bogus and since PMLN wins in those two constituencies, the beneficiary of these bogus voters must be PML(N). God knows how many bogus voters NS has in other constituencies that are no more there, anyhow, all this shows that NS is ‘Jali vote ka Baadsha’ ;)]

Similarly, the PPP is also relying heavily on the beneficiaries of Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) whose number runs into millions. Many of them have got themselves registered as voters in the last three years after acquiring the Computerised National Identity Card.

Initiated with an initial allocation of Rs.34 billion in 2008-09, the BISP is covering around five million families across the country. If, on the average, each family has got three voters, the number of voters getting cash assistance through the BISP comes to 15 million which constitutes almost 15 per cent of the total population. The PPP leaders think that majority of them would vote for its candidates.

Besides, thePPP has identified around 50 constituencies in the four provinces where its candidates had lost to the opponents by a small margin of upto 10,000 votes in 2008 elections. As per the party plan, these constituencies would be the primary focus of government in the coming days in respect of development schemes, electoral adjustments and selection of suitable candidates.

Likewise, according to the** PPP** insiders, their party would also reap the benefits of its electoral alliance with the PML-Q, MQM and ANP.
It is thought that this arrangement would bring more seats to the PPP compared to the last elections which it had contested single-handedly.

Last, but not the least, the PPP is also eyeing the possible split in the right wing vote. If this vote gets divided among the PML-N, the PTI, JI and other religious parties, PPP would be the sole beneficiary. Though nothing is final in politics until the last moment, but the three parties are less likely to make an electoral alliance against the PPP and its allies as the things stand today. Apart from these factors which the PPP thinks would go in its favour, the government is confident that the problem of loadshedding would be over at the time of the next elections.

The PPP candidates have been assured by party leadership that enough funds have been arranged to be given to the IPPs to ensure uninterrupted supply of electricity to the consumers well before holding of the polls.

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Re: Re-emergence of PML-Q

^ Good to see posts like the above two, detailed and analytical :):k:

It means Qaaf League will actually be relying on the synergy of the coalition? But how come all these parties in power are not counting the incumbency factor?