Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Last night I called my family in Karachi and they told me that scientists have cautioned about an earthquake in Karachi area (or a quake that will hit Karachi too) in November/December. Has anyone else heard about such prediction (estimation)?

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

^^ what? seriously? is that just one scientist ? my family is living in apartments in karachi. when did they predict the earthquake to hit? what scale?

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Thats what I'm trying to find out, if anyone else has read such report/article please let us know.

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Karachi is located close to 4 active tectonic fault lines, any of which could be the cause of a major earthquake.

I fear that a large earthquake there could be devastating. Pakistan has the same problem that happened in Turkey with the big earthquake there in 1999 - corruption allows builders to get away with making unsafe buildings.

I read an article where a man at the scene of a collapsed school in Kashmir said that all of the private schools in the area were still standing but the government schools were all destroyed, because builder paid local government officials bribes in order to make sub-standard buildings for the govt schools.

We all know what the state of building in Karachi was like....how many unsafe apartment blocks do we have there?

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Karachi is NOT located on any of the major earthquake plates in the region. I have not heard of any major earthquakes in Karachi ever. This recent quake and many others in the past 20 years in Pakistan have been in NWFP because it lies in the vicinity of the two plates - The Indian Plate and The Eurasian Plate.

I would be very surprised if there is another one in Southern Pakistan.

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Maddy, have you seen a recent article suggesting an upcoming quake in Karachi (or nearby)?

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

This article below suggests that Karachi does lie close to THREE tectonic plates and has seen earthquake long time ago.

http://www.policyarchitects.org/pdf/earthquoped_revisedforWeb.pdf#search=‘karachi%20tectonic%20fault’

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

There are different categories of plates. The more rigid ones are in NWFP. Karachi due to it's proximity to water has soft plates that don't rub against each other as rigidly as the ones in the Himalayas.

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

One of my favourite things about me me is the way that I’m always right :hula:

http://www.dawn.com/weekly/cowas/990829.htm

*…the densely populated (over 12 million) city of Karachi sits very close to the confluence of three major tectonic plates: the Indian Plate, the Arabian Plate, and the Eurasian Plate. According to geologists, four active fault lines have been identified in the vicinity, namely Karachi-Jati, Allah Bund-Rann of Kutch, Surjan-Jhimpir, and PAB. Over the last sixty years, on two occasions in 1945 and 1985, earthquakes of lesser intensity have struck this city. So far, we have been lucky. *

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Do you know the difference between faults and actual plates? Mr not-know-it-all-and-cutting-and-pasting-from-dawn? :D

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Read this and interpret for the common mass here :smiley:

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Quit bickering guys and look at this.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4322582.stm

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Faults are boundaries between plates where the plates are moving in different directions.

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

from the link Kaleem provided

yeah it could be november or december or 2010 but it doesnt have to be Karachi. its more likely in where the Eurasian plate is intersecting the Arabian plate (the current affected area).

in California we have earthquakes all the time, there is San Andreas fault that runs up the state. But earthquake in Southern California doesnt precede with an earthquake in Northern California and vice versa.

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

Currently earthquake predicting is good for two things one is to create panic. The second thing it can do is strengthen building codes.

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

^ Add to that learn how to build buildings from the Japanese. I believe they are the best in the business when it comes to dealing with earthshakes.

Sincerely,
Captain Lota

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

^
True, just look at the Kansai International Airport for proof of that.

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

but that cost lots $$$$ and giving current state of pakistan...most of people are poor..

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

^
Building techniques can be used to make it less devastating though, not earthquake proof, but less destruction.

Re: Predictions of more earthquake(s)?

^ I think more than $$$$, it requires use of brain cells (to innovate and design intelligently) and integrity (to stick to building codes in quake-prone areas).