Back in Jan 2017, I opened the thread http://gupshup.org/gs/pakistan-and-world-affairs/665700-phir-na-kehna-bataya-nahin-tha.html , trying to warn about Trump, his new potential strategy towards Pakistan, our establishment policies and asked if our establishment is ready to face some tough music. I said that:
*
“I am afraid that Trump is a very different president and he will order usa airforce to openly cross Pakistan borders and attack Quetta and Fata to kill Haqqani leadership whenever needed. He is not going to sit quiet. Can we stop Americans? No. so, who will be responsible for this utter embarrassment? you may think it will never happen but I can see it coming. Trust me, Trump will drone hafizsaeed and lakhvi as well”
*I am afraid, 8 months later things are going in the direction I warned. what did we do in last 8 months to protect ourselves from wild US machinery? anything? i feel like we are more lonely than ever except China who i supporting us but that is pretty much it. our narrative is confusing. we are fighting against TTP which does not attack USA/Nato, so USA/Nato does not care about our fight against terrorism and we support Afghan Taliban/Haqqani Network for strategic reasons but they attack USA/Nato in Afghanistan. so no one cares about our war against TTP. who is going to address these issues?
^^The people who are dealing with foreign services are dumb, stupid, arse holes. They should be choorha and bhangis rather than sitting in air conditioned offices of foreign services. I wonder even Uncle Sam not bomb Pakistan if he only stop the $billions of aid to Pakistan army? Really there is no need to bomb. stopping complete military aid will have devastating effects more serious than bombs.
now wait until you and I will be labeled as traitors and anti-Pakistan some Indian agents…the moment you try to debate our establishment policies you get in trouble by your own masses.
My viewpoint is that if supporting Afghan taliban and haqqani network is in our strategic interest then lets be open about it. Lets make a case around it that there are different groups in Afghanistan and we support Taliban just like india and USA support northern alliance. but lets stop presuming that the rest of the world is fool. Lets not be a beggar, keep on taking billions from the US and its allies and then support factions which are attacking US and then keep on repeating same notion that we do not support afghan taliban and haqqani network. Mullah omar died in Karachi hospital. Next amir mullah Mansour with his wives lived in Quetta, carried Pakistani passport for years and was killed on the Pakistani soil.
I completely agree with OP. Its an utter failure of entire foreign ministry regardless of who is running the show. Agreed with Sachay as well that they are the most incompetent people. Pakistani missions/embassies/consulates are infamous for being filled with people who are hired far from merit but more on a political or some other “parchi”.
On the other hand the rivals, Indians, were bent over backwards to make this dream come true which eventually has started from Trump’s speech.
And also there is no two opinion that Pakistan did double-cross US almost all the times. On one side they did take “billions & billions” (read in Trump’s style) from US and on the other side we know that people like Mullah Omar was getting treatment in Pakistani hospital, OBL was captured from Abbotabad barely a mile from largest military academy etc. So wutever that moron said in speech wasnt a big surprise or shocker. Anybody can wait till only a certain point.
My question is, how come Pakistani foreign ministry and Army officials didnt see it coming when an average Joe knows how crazy this almost bi-polar president is and what can he do once he goes against someone.
and you know what, as a Pakistani, i do have some sympathy to our establishment strategy on Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a mess with different factions. we picked our horse as taliban and indians/Russians/Iranians picked northern alliance. Taliban came into power and all was good.
fast forward, 911 happened and the world changed. USA attacked Taliban in Afghanistan and our army establishment legitimately thought that at best USA will be out of Afganistan in 5-7 years, so let’s preserve our relationship with Afghan Taliban and we started to support them in Pakistan. Afterall, WW2 ended in 6 years and Vietnam war, which was considered a long war, ended up in 8-9 years. Russians ran away from Afghanistan after 8 years. So it was not an unreasonable assumption but we ended up terribly wrong on 2 fronts
we underestimated American resilience..it has been 16 years and they are still there in Afghanistan and their economy did not shatter as we believed due to afghan war! and after such a long time, we and our strategy has been totally exposed and no one is willing to accept our narrative but we have failed to realize it and still hoping against hope that we can continue with our old strategy
The world overall has become really sensitive to terrorism and there is no way we can openly associate our alliance with Afghan taliban and Haqqani network for our strategic needs as these groups are considered terrorist groups by the world. so now we are stuck in the middle
We need to relook our policies…bbut do we have that kind of talent, leadership and will power to look at our policies constructively and crtically. we keep on repeating the same line like a parrot “we lost 70K lives in the war on terrorism”..yes we did and we are in pain but we lost those lives fighting Taliban Pakistan who was created by our estabslishemtn at first palce to fight proxy wars..so it is our own mess which we are finally trying to clean. it is not US war.
What US war is fight against Afghan Taliban and haqqani network but on that front, we are double faced.
foreign minister , foreign affairs , ambassador in US are very dangerous affairs , You can see Memogate on that .
Our 12 pass keeps full control on that , No body asking accountability of billions dollars from US , Who swallowed those
Our judiciary is always there to serve them and always to act upon their conspiracies .
You need to start your own prediction program like Dr. Shahid Masood ! Make it Engineer PhoenixGora.
As things are, I think that it is time that US drones are shot down if they intrude into Pakistan. NWA has been cleared and I think that is in Pakistan’s interest to eradicate violent madarsas (a project from Musharraf’s time!) for the betterment of the future generations. If america is going to double down with india, then Pakistan needs to limit cooperation with America.
Afghanistan is known to have coddled TTP and weren’t pleased last year when US whisked away mullah lahkwi? in the middle of being coached by afghan intelligence in paktia. I don’t think that it is happening now if Pakistan is building a fence but America needs to be told that if its pet fires at Pakistani Army then we might reserve the right to return fire including and up to missile and air strikes. It is America’s job that afghanistan respects and recognizes Durand Line like US analysts have said that it should do like any international border.
If Pakistan had guts then for any aid cut, Pakistan would restrict / reduce US personnel inside the country including cutting the US embassy to size. Pakistan shouldn’t have thousands of people in their embassies in the US and it might be a good deal if US demanded that Pakistan cuts its overbloated embassies to size.
Do not forget US stabbed Pakistan in the back in 1971 and then created a $hit-hole in 1980s when Russia left Afghanistan for Pakistan to do everything. And then again in 2000s, the rise of TTP. May be that is when Pakistan learnt its lesson to not trust US?
You are right, Pakistan should just bend down and accept whatever instruction is given… ‘you sir tell me who to kill and I just kill’.
err but then dont take money for the assigned tasks. Rather dont be an “ally” at all. I dont know how harboring most wanted persons can help Pakistan either way except prolonging time to fetch more $$$ but then when they are busted, the donor would want their money back, not by easy ways.
As Hillary once said during Lahore visit, you cant pet snakes in your garden and assume they’ll only bite someone else
Doing buk buk in whitehouse and action on the ground are two different things. Trump is the biggest bhonkne wala kutta, all buk buk no action. mark my words America as usual will do nothing, we need to stand up and tell him to shove his aid where sun does not shine.
If nowhere else he has had great success in the war front, 100s of Kms freed from ISIS, Assad wouldn’t dare use chemical weapons on civilians, Russia and USA not in a stand off in Syria, USA not arming ISIS ti fight Syria, killing of thousands of ISIS fighters. Cease in population displacement etc. They do have the most powerful army in the history of mankind and had lacked political will to unleash the brute force, now the population has given them the mandate to actively kill extremists without the due process and also much less regard for civilian casualties. Here is my prediction the leadership of Haqqani group is as good as dead. Why would it be a bad thing if the Americans takeout the terrorist organisation. Shouldnt we be happy that they are ridding us from this menace. Would we worry more about egoes or about the children these terrorists blow up.
Pakistan does not have option to take money or not, only option Pakistan has to participate in the game. “Most wanted persons” are defined by who? I believe what Pakistan is afraid is today they will handover/kill whoever is being asked to handover/kill tomorrow there will be new list, and it could very well include personnel of Pakistan army / intelligence unit etc.
Again, I’ll repeat the same thing. Dont be an ally. Announce it clearly that we are not going to do anything (and then practically show it) as per US dictation.
Everybody knows Pakistan has been taking tons of money on the promise of handing over terrorists to US. Read Musharraf’s book.
You just cannot be in two boats. If you call yourself sovereign, which is a great sign of alive nation, then prove it. I would love a daring response from Pak.
Sorry but this was not Trumps words, this is exactly what US generals and Pentagon thinks since finding of OBL in Abbottabad. The them Admiral Mullen took the lead in this after the Abbottbad incident. He was pretty clear in calling Pakistani Army as either Complacent or In competent. I report to an ex Marine and I have two direct reports that are veterans here, all of them have pretty strong views on Pakistan. What Trump is saying is sometihng we are hearing for a while here in Us and specially after OBL incident. Our army is a Rogue army. Its a state with in state whose has nefarious past and double dealings/games. When Raheel came to us 6 times uninvited, he was shown a pretty cold shoulder.
Its about time to decide whether the army will open its eyes to 21st century or will it continue to be a white elephent with sole purpose of conquering Paksitan. There is no more if , then and but here unfortunately. Hoping not but perhaps, some incidents like Salala are needed to teach this rogue army a lesson, unfortunately.
I am totally with you, I would have appreciated it had Mushy taken the stand then and not participated at all or offered partial support. But I am afraid, you and I live abroad, lives of Pakistanis will become hell if Pakistan gets completely isolated (much more than Iran/N Korea) etc.
Whoever is thinking that America will take their army back to barracks… they are living in la la land…
America is not Russia… They put down Russia in 80s… Learned the war game… and stay forever in Afghanistan…
Pakistan needs to stop playing double game… Take action instead of handshaking with people and organizations like Hafiz Saeed, SSP, LeT, HM…
What to say of Musharraf as bhola bhala said that we didn’t seal the afghan border in 2001 as US never asked us to. We rather let them set base in FATA and then go in three years later and it took PA another 10 years or so to get into north waziristan. You can’t blame any of that on America.
