Re: PPP aaaway he aaaway - Mush and PPP Alliance? (merged)
I think BB seems to have realised the mistake she made of not letting Fahim become PM 5 years ago, which Musharraf eagerly wanted. Certainly her charm offensive in Washinton DC has failed.
Analysts in Washington and Islamabad point out that the White House remains skeptical of Ms. Bhutto’s capacity, questioning her authority over Pakistan’s military and intelligence services and troubled by charges that she and her husband illegally gained millions of dollars in deals with people who did business with the government when she was in power. (She successfully fought two money laundering cases in Pakistan, though she continues to face charges in a separate case in a court in Switzerland.) “I’m not sure if there’s any amount of charm or orchestration on Benazir’s part that will change this,” Craig Cohen, deputy chief of staff at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said in an e-mail message. “Something major would have to happen in Pakistan for the Bush administration to give up on Musharraf.” More to the point, Mr. Cohen said, there is little reason to believe that having Ms. Bhutto at the helm would fundamentally alter the hold of the military and the intelligence services on the state machinery. “Even after free elections, the military will still call the shots on national security issues,” he said. “Firing the manager only gets you so far.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/06/world/asia/06benazir.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
As the elections come ever closer, all the main cards remain with Musharraf, and Benazir will not want to miss out on them come what may, because that would be suicide for her party. I don’t believe there will ever be any written deal, just a series of “confidence building measures” leading upto election time i.e. closing of NAB cell, appointment of new CEC, and appointment of interim govt.
In fact BB realised the fatal mistake she made in 2002 by not letting Fahim become PM many years ago i.e. in 2004 when she first approached the govt for relief, and Zardari was released from prison after 8 years. Then she allowed her party to part in the local elections in 2005, take part in the Senate elections and gave the govt support in some key legislation in 2006, and in 2007 she ordered her party to play only a very token role in the judicial demos. At the same time she has confused and humiliated Nawaz Sharif at every turn. Now in the next month or so that process will be completed when she makes a “conditional” offer to support Musharraf’s re-election, after she get’s some more relief in the caes against her (none will be dropped as such, but some will be softened).