Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

Pakistan do produce nuclear electricity. Though nuclear electricity does not contribute much but contribution is increasing fast. For instance, nuclear electricity production in 1999 (year Musharraf came to power) was only 0.6 percent of Pakistan total electricity generation (or around 360 million KWh). By 2005, Pakistan nuclear electricity was contributing around 2.5 percent of total electricity production (or over 2000 million KWh). Many nuclear plant projects have got started by Musharraf government, and according to plan Pakistan government embarked in April 2005, it is expected that by 2030, Pakistan would produce around 8800 MW of nuclear electricity.

Pakistan Times (9 April 2005):
Pakistan Times | Top Story: Pakistan’s Nuclear-power programme to be expanded

CHASHMA: **Pakistan Friday embarked upon a long-term plan of **installing a capacity of 8,800 MW power generation from atomic energy by 2030 with breaking the ground for over 300 MW Chashma Nuclear Power Plant Unit-II.

Not only that the government is all out to build more nuclear reactors for electricity generation, Chinese being the vendor of CHASHNUPP units, are more than willing to continue supporting Pakistan even beyond the completion of the Chashma-II [C-2].

Dr Ashfaq Ahmad Khan, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister along with Wang Shoujun, Vice President of China National Nuclear Corporation [CNNC], broke the ground for C-2 project, adjacent to CHASHNUPP-I of approximately the same capacity. Chashma unit one [C-1] is operational at 325 MW since 2000 at 95 per cent capacity utilization as a symbol of lasting friendship between China and Pakistan.

The C-2 is to be completed and connected to the national power grid by 2011 with an estimated cost of Rs 51.046 billion including the mark-up to be accumulated by the completion time.

It would be the third nuclear power generating facility after KANUPP at Karachi and C-1. The site of the C-2 is adjacent to the C-1.

The two operational nuclear reactors are being operated by the scientists and engineers of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission under the power generation licenses of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority.

The nuclear power plants in Pakistan are working under the safeguards and regular monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN watchdog on nuclear technology.

As Pakistan has achieved self-reliance in development of nuclear fuel, the IAEA keeps a close eye on power generating nuclear reactors.

The UN Watchdog
Officials of the PAEC say that the IAEA inspectors visit after every three months while their camera eyes are open on us 24-hour. The senior officials of the PAEC told a media team the other day that the Commission after the 1976 withdrawal of Canadian Support from KANUPP up to 1991 when the Chinese came in for C-1, had been through a precarious conditions.

Till date, they said, Pakistan was denied of any support other than that of Chinese while the IAEA advise comes up to the extent of safety but categorically denied for performance of the reactors.

Sino-Pak cooperation
Dr Ashfaq and Foreign Secretary Riaz Muhammad Khan both stated while addressing the ground-breaking ceremony on the site of C-2 that the road of Pakistan’s endeavour to develop nuclear energy for peaceful use as well as that of Sino-Pak cooperation was not ending at the C-2.

Dr Ashfaq said that the C-1 was the first ever export of a nuclear reactor by China over a decade ago, “but we reached the point of C-2 ground-breaking following the successful completion of C-1.

Earlier, the Foreign Secretary made an announcement in so many words that “C-2, in my view, is just a beginning of expansion of Sino-Pak ties in peace-purposes nuclear field, and economic development after the achievement of time-tested political friendship of the two countries.”

The Foreign Secretary who was in China as Ambassador of Pakistan on his previous posting, foresaw tremendous potential of Pak-China cooperation in the nuclear development for peaceful purposes under the umbrella of the Treaty of Friendship, and Cooperation recently signed by the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao this week at Islamabad.

Besides vice president of the CNNC, Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Zhang Chunxiang, Chairman Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority Jamshed A Hashmir, Javed Iqleem Member Power PAEC, Sulman Bashir Pakistani Ambassador in China were also present at the ground-breaking ceremony.

More Plants
Pakistan will construct more nuclear power plants after Chashma Nuclear Power Plant Unit -2 (CHASHNUPP-2) for its peaceful purposes, as it has abundant expertise, manpower and reliable friends for cooperation in this regard.

“Pakistan has now more dependable workforce and friends and our nuclear power programme is poised for expansion in order to meet the higher needs of accelerated economic development of the country,” said Dr. Ashfaq Ahmed.

Referring to Shahrah-e-Dosti, a road at Chashma site named to signify Pak-China friendship, Dr. Ashfaq Ahmed said this road has no end point, and symbolizes the ever growing cooperation between the two countries in peaceful usage of nuclear energy.

Welcome Address
Earlier, in his welcome address, Chairman PAEC Parvez Butt said Pakistan has demonstrated its capability to operate nuclear power plants efficiently and safely for the last 34 years.

The Chairman said President General Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz have provided their fullest support for the development of strong base for producing nuclear electricity as per requirement of the country.

The success of PAEC has been because of its people, work culture and systems which ensured a continued marched forward of its programme despite embargoes, Mr. Butt added.

The Chairman said Pakistan’s nuclear power plants are under International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] under the safeguard and it maintains a close liaison with IAEA, World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO), Candu Operators Group (COG) and PNRA.

Perspective
He informed there is resurgence of nuclear power in the world due to global warming and soaring oil prices and Pakistan nuclear electricity programme will be expanded as per local and global conditions.

Representing Chinese government, Vice President of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), Wang Shoujun said Pak-China friendship has been steady and fruitful to the mutual benefits of their people and it will continue to grow in all areas including nuclear power.

He said success of CHASHNUPP-1 which is the fruit of hard work of engineers and scientists of both the countries has paved the way for 340 MW CHASSNUP-2 and many others in future.

Member Power PAEC, Javed Iqleem said the expertise and knowledge obtained from Chashma-1 and Chashma-2 will be our chief asset for embarking upon an ambitious nuclear power production programme.

Recounting the achievements of Pakistani scientists and engineers in nuclear power generation, he said, after the completion of 30 years design life of KANUPP, PAEC has renovated it to extend its useful life for another 15 years.

Chairman PNRA, Jamshed Hashmi, who himself is a veteran of nuclear power put on record the efforts of Chairman PAEC Parvez Butt for his contribution to indigenous solutions of the problems faced by Pakistan’s nuclear power programme.

Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, a key figure in supporting C-1 and C-2 assistance said China’s support to Pakistan is a permanent feature of our policy and congratulated PAEC for CHASHNUPP-3 in advance at the ground-breaking of CHASNUPP-2.

Pakistan needs 10,000 MW pronto, and another 10,000 MW in a very very near future. Question is!

how can we get 20,0000 MW?

Not from garbage, not from air or solar etc (all of these may combine for 100 MW).

In reality we need 15 nuclear plant (1,000 MW each) $2billion a piece at today’s prices,
Nuclear Power Education - Cost of Nuclear Power.

2 large dams (1,500 MW average and 2400 MW peak) $8 billion a piece
Brief Introduction of Kalabagh Dam Project

may be 4 coal/gas fired plants (500 MW each). $10 billion per 1000MW
Silobreaker: Thar coal-fired power plant: Sindh government barr…

Total investment on these would a minimum of $66 billion. Time period to design and install would be somewhere close to 4-12 years.

This is a very generic maths to put so-called arms around the problem.

Chinese are doing the right thing by importing 4 plants (1000 MW each) at the cost of $2billion (estimated) from the USA.

Pakistan too should follow Chinese example and make a deal with USA. Sure we have to open up our khufia labs to the USA but that is worth the prosperity of Pakistan (If India can do it why not us?).

Or we should simply go ahead and sign the damn NPT and be done with it. Our bumb is not going to help us eat roti, so why not end that menace and be lawful citizens of the world.

very interesting article and informative also.Thanks alot for sharing :slight_smile:

You are welcome

Bhai believe me, summarization is not so easy when there is so much information: First thing to know is unit used. Many get confused even in units, though it is not their fault, as that is technical terms. For instance:

When we talk about electricity generating installed capacity, we talk in terms of Watts … i.e. 20,000 MW = 20 GW = 20,000,000,000 Watts. Electricity generating installed capacity is maximum theoretical possible output of electricity at any instance. For Pakistan it is 20,000 MW.

When we talk about production and consumption, we talk in Watt hour or Wh … i.e. 100 billion KWh = 100 Trillion Wh (100 TWh) = 100,000,000,000,000 Wh. [If there is installed capacity of one watt and thus one watt is produced for a year continuously, than it means production is 8760 Wh … because there are 8760 hours in a year]

Pakistan has capacity to produce 20,000 Mega Watts (that is maximum possible output) … and if that amount of electricity is produced at all time than production would be 175.2 billion KWh. Once electricity is produced than it has to get consumed at the same time (electricity are not stored after production for later use). Thus, a country produces according to need (consumptions, line losses plus electricity theft). This need goes up and down according to weather and time of industrial activities, so consumption and production varies every hour. Increasing consumption increases production (limited to possible output from installed capacity). If consumption increases that cannot be satisfied by increasing production, we get load shedding.

Now coming to your questions (according to my best knowledge, understanding and belief):

  1. How much is peak hour demand?

I do not know, but earlier this year Pakistan was producing around 15000 MW (peak output), still we were having load shedding. It means that peak demand could be much more than 15000 MW. At present, Pakistan peak output is around 10000 MW and thus load shedding has increased. I believe that peak demand could be around 18000 MW.

  1. How much are we lacking/have-surplus in peak-hour demand?

It is possible that if Pakistan could produce around 18000 MW than peak demand can be satisfied. In theory, that is possible with present capacity of 20000 MW, but in practice there is lot of problems. It is very unlikely that all producing units can produces electricity to their maximum at the same time. In practice there could be number of hindrance in producing electricity equal to installed capacity. Some are technical and some financial. For instance, dams may have large installed capacity but shortage of water in dams could means maximum output could not be produced when required … it is also possible that particular thermal plant (or section of a power-plant) at any particular time might shut down due to fault or maintenance. Sometime, it is uneconomical to switch on production plants as required increase in electricity demands does not justify extra cost. Hence, even if there might be surge in demand at any particular time and that demand is below installed capacity that can be satisfied, still that demand do not get fulfilled, resulting in load shedding.

I think that if Pakistan decides to fulfil all demands regardless of financial constrains and technical problems, then possibly 22000 to 23000 MW capacity may fulfil all demands (at present, though it might increase or decrease in future).

[Note, one hindrance could be no desire to meet ‘peak demand’ by government, as cost of producing that extra electricity to fulfil peak demand can be too high. Extra revenue do not justify cost of fulfilling peak demand … because of theft, corruption in the system, electricity pricing, and line losses … and thus government feels that they could not afford those demands. One should realise that it is economical to produce electricity closer to average demand (regular output) and not fulfil extra demand, reason being, average output cost less and average output is what country needs most of the time. Minimum demand could be slightly less than average demand].

  1. What about off-peak demand/supply?

I do not know exact figures but I believe that it could be anywhere around 7 MW. Pakistan fulfils this minimum demand all the time (that includes consumption + theft + losses) and that comes to 60 billion KWh of electrical production. Average demand could be 9 MW and I think that this demand is also available to Pakistanis at all times whenever required (9 MW if produced throughout the year, it would be 80 billion KWh of production). … Pakistan produces around 100 billion KWh.

^^ good analysis Saleem! (it is sad that this important thread has been rejected by the posters in favor of unproductive and divisive political threads). Now you all can see Pakistan is in poor shape because our intellectuals are more interested in noora kushti in Islamabad, instead of productive debate on country’s economic future.

Back to the topic!

Hydel and local-coal based plants are kind of limited in providing base load power.

Base load power - is the lowest amount of power supplied by a plant on consistent basis.
Peak power - The maximum power that can be supplied for short period of time.

Hydro electric power in Pakistan suffers from 1 huge factor. The need of water for irrigation purpose. When there is no need for irrigation water, the water flow from the dams is slowed down, and as a result Tarbela and Magla produce much less power.

There are two more dams that can be built in near future. Kala Bagh and Bhasha. Their base power (combined) will be close to 3000 MW. For local coal, our major reserves are in Sindh. Again in the near future we can get at the most 2000MW base power.

The total comes out to be 5,000MW. Whereas our near term need is 20,000MW (and growing).

How do we fill the gap of 15,000 MW of power in a reliable way?. That’s the tough question.

Anything coming from Central Asia via Afghanistan (gas, petroleum, electricity) will remain unreliable.

Iranian gas may be an alternative, but India has pulled out and now Iran and Pakistan cannot finance this project by themselves. Considering Iran’s poor financial standing in the world right now, no one will give the needed $10 billion loan for the project.

The last best hope for Pakistan is to use Nuclear power to generate the remaining 15,000MW.

Chinese nuclear reactors are tiny. The best output we can see is 300 to 500MW base power. This means we will need 30 to 50 (average 40) plants from China. Considering the low output of Chinese nuclear plant manufacturing we can’t get that large number in the next 10 years.

Even if we can get 40 plants from China, we need money from the West to buy them. And you can well imagine 40 plants will need a lot of space and water (for cooling) as well.

The other nuclear plant option is to go to the West. Both Europe and America have large and reliable plants that can produce 1,000 to 1,100 MW reliably and safely. That means we’ll need 15 plants from the West instead of 40 from China.

That’s precisely the reason that China itself is buying nuclear plants from the USA.
Westinghouse signs nuclear plant deal with China

And India is following the same path by signing a controversial deal with the USA.

Thus Pakistan needs to rethink our view on Western nuclear power plants. It should start by fulfilling the basic precondition of this plan. Sign the non-proliferation treaties with the USA (India style) or better NPT (international style).

This will pave the way for Western investment in Pakistan and resolve our energy crisis. Sure we have to sacrifice our bomb in order to give bread to the masses.

Thanks for clarification on definitions.

Okay, so if you don’t know then lets not go beyond that. I thought you had some numbers and its sources about how much is needed and how much is available etc, thanks for trying :k:

Are you saying Pakistan meets off-peak demand all the time? :eek: Explain please! I am talking about off-peak hours demand, which would be after 6PM (when most of the “services” business close). or for “power production” POV may be after 12AM when even most restaurants/entertainment businesses/malls are closed.

According to Wikipedia Bhasha dam construction has already started (true?) and it will provide 4500MW (probably "peak" instantaneous energy) while Kalabagh dam is shelved again.

From the news import of 1000MW is being sought.

What is the cost of Chines nuclear reactors?

Does anybody know how much is demand of electricity in each city? Lets say Karachi, Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore, Quetta etc.? May be if big cities can have one reactor each then load will be fairly balanced. Bigger cities may get 2-3 depending on feasibility.

From Sa1eem's post and other news articles seems like we are wasting lots of electricity to old power grid (line losses) as well as electricity theft. Wouldn't it be wiser to curb power theft to begin with? What about converting transmission line from over-head (poles) to under-ground power lines so no "kunda-system" as starter?

Richer populated areas of big cities should be easy to afford "continuous" supply of electricity so they don't have to install generators even if they have to pay a little extra, so areas like "DHA" can have one reactor (just a guess/idea) to meet their demand so they won't put much load on rest of the city as DHA probably consumes more (airconditioners plus lots of other big consumer items).

Re: Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

From this articleseems like Karachi’s demand is around 700MW. So WAPDA supplying 500MW and if two reactors of 300/500MW are installed then it SHOULD take care of power demands (atleast for next 3-4 years).

You are welcome.

Actually, I do not know figures of Pakistan, but here are some details (and numbers) what I know about Karachi that I believe is quite accurate:

Supply and demand: KESC (2007):

KESC own electricity generation capacity ~ 1540 MW

Further, KESC buys from:
IPP ~ 250 MW
KANUPP ~ 40 MW
Pak Steel Mills ~ 20 MW

Total Supplies (approximately) ~ 1850 MW
Demand at peak hours in Karachi is ~ 2500 MW**.**

So, demand at peak hours requires around 650 MW more electricity. KESC tries to cover this gap by buying electricity from WAPDA (if WAPDA can sell). If WAPDA do sell than there would be no load shedding other then due to technical problems. Unfortunately, WAPDA do promise but do not necessarily manage to sell electricity at peak hours, hence regular load shedding due to shortage of electricity.

Future: What I know, KESC after privatization has already started building two electricity generating plants, one should get completed in 2008. They are:

1: Korangi Thermal power plant (should have got completed in 2008) has generation capacity of 220 MW
2: Bin Qasim thermal power plant (would complete later) has electricity generation capacity of 575 MW.

If these two plants do get completed then there would be no dependence for electricity on WAPDA. Though, as electricity demand is increasing day by day, KESC has to start building more power plants (that I do not know if they have).

I do not think that there is any problem for Pakistan meeting off-peak demands. If there is no supply of electricity during off-peak hours, then that is due to mismanagement, incompetency, technical problems, or Transmission and distribution problems.

Loadshedding: no let-up in Ramazan -DAWN - Top Stories; August 23, 2008

Loadshedding: no let-up in Ramazan

By Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD, Aug 22: The unprecedented power loadshedding in the country is primarily because of financial crisis and fuel shortage, and not because of capacity constraints as being stated by the government.

The worst-ever fiscal crunch being faced by the government and power companies has also forced the Ministry of Water and Power and the Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) to turn down a government request for reducing loadshedding during Ramazan.

Sources told Dawn that the government had asked Pepco to increase power generation in Ramazan, but it had been told that Rs500 million per day would be required for any additional generation.

Background discussions with government officials and data available with Dawn suggest that the lack of capacity addition will cause power shortage of up to 5,500MW in 2010.

The current gap between demand and supply was because of the government’s inability to make full payments to oil suppliers and generation companies, the officials conceded.

The generation from Pepco’s own thermal power plants has shrunk to the lowest level because of the company’s inability to purchase fuel oil from suppliers. On August 20, Wapda’s thermal plants could produce only 1,900MW against its capacity of 4,829MW because of non-availability of furnace oil and technical faults in gears, clutches and switches.

Likewise, the generation from IPPs stood at about 3,470MW on Aug 19 against their capacity of 6,115MW, again because of financial constraints.

The thermal power generation has been less than 6,000MW against the total capacity of about 12,000MW for two months.

The sources said the country’s oldest refinery, Attock Refinery Limited, had been forced to reduce its throughput by about 30 per cent early this week after its capacity to store light sulphur furnace oil (LSFO) reached its peak and the PSO stopped lifting the product for onward supply to Kot Addu Thermal Power Company (Kapco) because of its inability to pay for fuel oil.

The Kapco plant, which can also be run on natural gas, has not been able to produce electricity to its capacity because the gas utilities have reduced their supplies to about 60MMCFD (million cubic feet per day) form 300MMCFD.

The officials admitted that despite a generation capacity of about 18,000MW, Pepco plants could not produce more than 12,000MW in the last two months.Thermal plants in Karachi could not generate more than 1,300MW against a capacity of about 1,800MW because of technical problems and fuel shortages.


Problems galore. So its not only the capacity, but also the financials contributing to the load-shedding. I don’t want to drag last govt but reluctantly I have to as there were so many claims of economic development and huge forex reserves, so what was the reason of load-shedding then?

:D

There are modern clean coal burning plants as well. lower initial costs than other sort of power plants or renewable energy sources.

Business Recorder [Pakistan’s First Financial Daily]

First clean coal plant likely by November 2010

ARTICLE (August 10, 2009): Pakistan will have its first clean coal power generation facility by the end of next year, said Hillard Herzog, the CEO of a US-based energy firm Bergamo E&A in an interview with BR Research of Business Recorder. “Ours is a 544 megawatt clean coal energy project to be set up in Jamshoro, under the terms of your government’s rental (power) programme” said Herzog, who oversees the firm’s energy business in Pakistan.

this thread is more amusing than informing. However amongst hydro,coal and nuclear. we cant rely much longer on hydro, nuclear is not within our reach so probably coal it is. But i heard china offered that in mushy's time?

under-construction Chashma Nuclear Power Plant II (CHASNUPP-2) would be functionalised by 2010 and would start generating 340 MW of electricity by 2011.