Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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Re: Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

Excuseme,what about your plans to get enerrgy aid from Tajikistan and Kyrgystan?I remember seeing that news......

~**~ Tussi Baray ----- Ho ~~~~ ~**~
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Please read the first post :)

Timepass -April 2012
23

Where did you learn that?

What was demand last year (vs production)? Years before? Howcome we never came out of load-shedding in past 20-30 years? (please don't resort to finger pointing, thanks).

How many possible (and feasible) locations are there to build dams?

Due to nuclear sanction I don't think Pakistan can go for reactor-generated elctricity.

Sing a Song according 2 Ur Mood !!!!!
24

What I know is that Pakistan has electricity production installed capacity of 20,000 MW. Hydro-power in that installed capacity is around 30 percent (around 6000 MW). I believe that Pakistan has potential to produce 50,000 MW of hydro-electricity. But it needs political will and inter-provincial confidence.

Some of the hydro-projects for which feasibility study is already done during last 9 years (960 are mentioned here):

Projects

Load shedding: As what I know, it is not all related to electricity supply shortages, but there is many causes. One is cost recovery. Many people do not pay for electricity, so government have to pay for it. That means, Pakistan has to subsidise electricity beyond means if load shedding has to stop completely and that is not possible. Second is again money, as supplying electricity needs good transmission lines well maintained, that is not there. Third problem is fluctuating demands at wrong time. That is shortage of electricity during winter when dams could not produce electricity to their capacity and then huge increase in electricity demand during summer. Unused installed capacity cost money, but then producing electricity and user not paying for it cost more money. Someone has to pay that money, and in most cases if people do not pay, government have to pay plus those who pay suffer.

One should understand that during 90s, Pakistan lost billions of dollars to IPP for installing excess capacity and commissions to politicians by IPP (that in the end was paid by government again as IPP loaded that as their cost to government). IPP projects installed huge excess to required electricity generating capacity (at the cost to Pakistan government and people), most of the time capacity was not utilised, was sitting idle and not producing electricity, still there was load shedding in the country, and that was due to above factors I mentioned. If supply was only problem then we would not have seen load shedding during 90s. [Note: … having installed electricity generating capacity is different than production of electricity as production depends on demands as long as installed generating capacity is there and demand is paid by consumers or government. If installed capacity is excess to demand than country lose out as that is waste of resources].

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Surprise Surprise: Are we talking about 16000 MW of electricity by 2015, something new? Or it is projects of last government on line that present government is trying to claim as something new and their own … plus, on way thinking to skim few billion dollars too? :slight_smile:

Read the energy news of May 2007 (that is more in details) and look at the similarities with present news … well, the difference is in cost … not too much, only few billion dollars … I mean 15.462 billion dollars out of 30 billion dollars, but then so what, this is small price to pay for democracy … wait, not just this price but similar price for every project that would go on under the supervision of thug Nawaz, con-man Zardari, and their chailay chamchay. :frowning:

ISLAMABAD (May 10 2007): … Around 50 projects of private sector are in the pipeline to generate 13,400 megawatt of electricity by 2016 at an estimated cost of 12.847 billion dollars. Ten projects with 2255 MW capacity including six oil and four pipeline quality gas dual-fuel are expected to be completed by year 2008 with an investment of 1.691 billion dollars**.**

Thus:
Total generating capacity in pipeline: 13400 + 2255 = 15655 megawatt
Total estimated cost: $12.847 bn + $1.691 bn = $14.538 billion

Now, this estimate got changed with new figures:

http://www.dawn.com/2008/08/04/nat3.htm

ISLAMABAD, Aug 3 (2008): Pakistan plans to acquire an additional power generation** capacity of 16,000MW by 2015** and needs $30 billion investment to meet the target.

Projects are same … capacity to get installed are same … but costs have changed. Instead of $14.538 billion dollars, now the cost would be $30 billion. Increase in the cost is obvious knowing who is in power … Nawaz the thug and Zardari the con-man. It seems that future planning of skimming the country is quite good. … :slight_smile:

:::||| P O G E E P A K I S T A N 2 0 0 8 |||:::, Oil Exhibition, POGEE 2008, Pakistan Mega Event of Oil, Gas & Energy Exhibition, World biggest trade exhibitions of Oil, Gas & Energy Exhibition in Pakistan, World No. 1 Exhibition of Oil, Gas & Energy](http://www.pogeepakistan.com/industry%20news%20May%202007.htm)

1000 megawatts additional power to be generated by year-end:

ISLAMABAD (May 10 2007): The government will generate 1000 MW of additional electricity by the end of the current year through its energy conservation plan and completion of ongoing power projects in the public and private sector. The additional power generation will help overcome the present shortage of 1000 MW and the load-shedding problem.

An unprecedented growth in purchasing power of the people and rapid industrial growth has led to an additional load on the country’s power system. The government has taken a number of steps to produce electricity, which is necessary for sustaining the country’s economic growth. Simultaneously a plan for improvement and extension of transmission and distribution network is also being implemented to ensure smooth power supply to consumers.

The short and medium term steps are designed to bridge the gap between demand and supply in the power sector. The demand for electricity is growing by 10% per annum and the government is focusing both on additional electricity generation as well as on better load management to maintain the growth momentum.

As a result of the various initiatives taken by the government a number of power projects are at various stages of completion in the public and private sectors. The government is working with ‘demand management option’ to overcome the situation. A balanced approach is needed for sustainability besides medium and long term plans, said an official of the Ministry of Water and Power.

To cater to the energy needs of the developing economy, power generation resources have to be developed to keep pace with the rapid economic development, he added. Collaboration among all stakeholders will enable mutual consultation on issues and challenges for improving power generation infrastructure, he said.

The Ministry of Water and Power has initiated several plans to meet the growing electricity demand in the country by expediting work on mega power projects. The government has assigned high priority to the development of water resources of the country and decided to construct five large dams, by the year 2016.

According to the Ministry of Water and Power about 1200MW to 1400MW more will be generated up to 2008 which will help reduce power shortage problem in the country.

The ministry has already directed WAPDA to speed up work on mega water projects including Neelum-Jhelum Hydro Power Projects, Diamir-Bhasha Dam, Kurram Tangi Dam, Sabakzai Dam and Kachi Canal Project. The ministry has stressed the need to quickly complete the formalities and start construction work as soon as possible.

The work on Kachi Canal project is on schedule and it would be completed in the target time by December 2008 while the work on Subak-Zai Dam in Balochistan would be completed this year at a cost of Rs 1.576 billion. In order to overcome power shortage problem, new power plants will be installed in the country, besides other mega projects to produce more electricity.

Around 50 projects of private sector are in the pipeline to generate 13,400 megawatt of electricity by 2016 at an estimated cost of 12.847 billion dollars. Ten projects with 2255 MW capacity including six oil and four pipeline quality gas dual-fuel are expected to be completed by year 2008 with an investment of 1.691 billion dollars.

Out of six projects during the year 2008, the main project is for capacity expansion of existing IPPs near Lahore with 405 MW capacity. This project would cost 304 million dollars. Similarly, during the year 2009, eight projects have been planned to generate 1764 MW electricity with an investment of 1.323 billion dollar. These include three oil and five dedicated gas field projects.

In year 2010, seven projects of 1321 MW capacity including two hydel, one oil, three pipeline quality gas dual-fuel and one dedicated gas field would be completed at a cost of 1.096 billion dollars. Similarly, in year 2011, three hydel projects with generating capacity of 284 MW, costing 355 million dollars would be completed.

In year 2012, seven projects having capacity of 2726 MW including three hydel and four coal projects would be completed with the cost of 2.320 billion dollars.

In year 2013, five projects including four hydel and one coal would be completed to generate 1986 MW electricity. These projects will cost 2.233 billion dollars.

Three hydel projects having 1443 MW capacity are likely to be completed in 2014 with the cost of 1.804 billion dollars while in year 2015 and 2016 seven hydel projects are planned to generate 1620 MW electricity and would cost 2.025 million dollars.

To meet growing power needs of the country, recently five agreements have been concluded with different parties for generation of about 1300 megawatt electricity. Power projects with a total capacity of 6000 MW are in different stages of approval, including 550 megawatt of wind power projects.

Copyright Associated Press of Pakistan, 2007.

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I want to ask the supporters of Thug Nawaz and conman Zardari, especially those who use to malign past government, that how come projects with accumulative estimated cost of $14.54 billion in May 2007 by Shaukat Aziz government turned into estimate of $30 billion project in August 2008 by present crook government? And if past government was as corrupt as these people use to say, than why estimates of past government was so low, less than half, compare to estimate by government of these crooks?

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Re: Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

I wont read any more long paras, after you failed to quote from your own sources truthfully.

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Do you think I am one of trio liars ... Nawaz Shareef, Ishaq Daar, or Ahsan Iqbal? I never lie when quoting anything and I make sure that whatever I quote is true (to the best of my knowledge and belief), and if I write anything, I write truthfully to the best of my knowledge and belief.

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Nope, its more on the lines of Shortcut Aziz, where 80 turns into 100, and for some reason the meaning of the word double all of a sudden has a new definition :hehe: Rounding off (20 to the nearest hundred) is a new concept that we’re getting used to.

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Re: Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

In between I would like to ask you people,why can't Pakistan go for Nuclear energy,to contemplate future energy needs?Pakistan is a nuclear power and it has acquired the technology and facilities for that.

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Yea, you can see my honesty that when rounding $14.538 bn estimate of past government that got increased to $30 bn by present Thug government; I did not rounded $14.538 bn to $14.5 bn so to increase the differential, but rounded the figure to $14.54 bn even though it decreased the differential, making value of expected looting by present thug governmnet less.

Even earlier, I was thinking that past government estimate was $12.847 billion for 13400 megawatt that present government is overestimating to $30 billion for 16000 megawatt … overlooking that another project of 2255 megawatt with cost of $1.691 was also there … so later I added that cost into equation and thus increased the estimate of Shaukat Aziz government from $12.847 bn to $14.538 bn for 15655 megawatt, decreasing the differential between estimates, from $17.153 bn to $15.462 bn, thus reducing the amount of additional estimated cost of the project to cater present government corruption.

If I was unfair then I would have tried to increase the differentials between present government estimate and past government estimate, to show more possible looting by present government, but I did not.

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You are right, but there are problems. Nuclear energy needs nuclear fuel plus especially trained manpower, that Pakistan as well as most other countries lack. Further, initial investment is much more than other forms of energy production. Production of nuclear energy creates nuclear waste that is difficult to get rid (though, they can be used to make bombs :)).

Best for Pakistan is to go for Hydro-electric power generation, as Pakistan has potential to produce more than 50000 Million Watts of Hydro-electric power and cost of producing hydro-electricity is very little. I think that cost of hydro-electricity is around 5 to 10 percent of electricity produced by fossil fuel, especially when cost of fossil fuel has recently rocketed ... plus saving of foreign exchange as Pakistan have to import fossil fuel ... plus saving in pollution, as fossil fuel creates pollution.

Hydro-electric power is obtained from dams and that has another advantage of storing water that can be used when needed for agriculture or whatever purpose. Plus, generation of hydro-power is pollution free.

Pakistan produces around 20000 Million Watts of electricity; most of it is from fossil fuel (oil, gas, and coal). I think, Pakistan hydro-electricity output is around 6000 Million Watts. Pakistan needs around 22000 to 25000 Million Watts. With time and development, Pakistan would need more.

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Re: Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

A very good reply :slight_smile: :k:

Saleem.. but the above stated energy sources can be either unavailable/drained off at one point of time.By that time the country has to equip itself to withstand such a situation.I think you people have to consider Nuclear energy aswell,as future energy source.Since Pakistan has achieved significant milestones as a nuclear power,I believe there won’t be much hurdles to that target.

Lahore Lahore Hai...
34

Wait, you are saying our current production capacity is 20,000MW and we'll get 16,000additional by 2016, it'd make our production around 36,000MW.

I couldn't find in your posts what is our CURRENT consumption and if you know what is it estimated to be in 2016.?

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If these are same projects for which previous govt said $14.5b while current govt is now revising up to $30b then this is something that needs to be brought up in media. Why don't you write to some newspapers/TV stations, who knows govt might get grilled and answer the questions.

36

and they call it a plan? if you gonna shoot in the air, why not shoot a higher number like 32,000MW or 64,000MW. Its not like Kazaghstan etc are having an abundance of energy and looking for export outlets.

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May be you can request PM/President to shoot a number of your liking :), anyway, this is for "additional" capacity.

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Pakistan’s energy production capacity, according to different sources.

2004 BP World Energy (2005) 88.42 TWh -
2004 IAEA PRIS (2005) 81.60 TWh -
2003 BP World Energy (2005) 84.49 TWh -
2003 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/) 76.92 TWh (provisional)
2003 IAEA PRIS (2004) 76.40 TWh -
2003 World Factbook (2005) 75.27 TWh -
2002 BP World Energy (2005) 81.64 TWh -
2002 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/) 72.44 TWh -
2002 IEA (2005) 75.70 TWh -
2001 BP World Energy (2005) 75.12 TWh -
2001 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/) 68.86 TWh -
2001 IEA (2004) 72.43 TWh -
2001 World Factbook (2004) 66.96 TWh -
2000 BP World Energy (2005) 64.65 TWh -
2000 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/) 63.40 TWh

SOURCE

as of 2007, there was a shortage of 4 Giga watts. I am not sure how we gonna overcome that shortage under one year WITHOUT building any new plants. (HAWAI QILLAI don’t produce electricity).

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Meray bhai, I think you are getting confuse between electricity production capacity, actual electricity production and electricity consumption. I believe that consumption at peak hour is still less than 20000 MW and total electricity consumption is around 85 to 90 billion KWh.

When Pakistan has 20,000 MW of production capacity, than it means, if all producing units are working to its maximum than Pakistan would have 20,000 MW output at that time. Well, electricity cannot be stored, so it has to get used. If there are consumers who want this amount of electricity all the time (24 hours, 356 days), than total production of electricity would be 175.2 billion KWh of electricity. (Note: 175 billion KWh ... that is = 24h x 365 x 20000 MW).

Obviously, Pakistan do not produce that much electricity neither Pakistan consumes 20,000 MW at any moment. Few months ago (during last period of previous govt), Pakistan was producing 15000 MW (peak output), but today, Pakistan is producing 10,000 MW (peak output).

In 2007, Pakistan produced around 100 billion KW of electricity. Normally for Pakistan, electricity production is around 15 percent more than electricity consumption ... that extra production is line losses and electricity theft. Now, it does not mean that electricity consumption is actually what Pakistan needs, as occasionally due to load shedding or unavoidability, consumption is lower.

Anyhow, country electricity consumption has its own peak and low. Installed capacity when fully operative should satisfy peak demand, as for low, that should not be problem. I think that Pakistan peak demand can be fulfilled with 20000 MW installed capacity if properly managed, though things would become easier if 2000 MW more capacity is installed, as most of the time, all units are not working and obviously dams cannot produce electricity when there is less water (even though they are part of installed capacity).

How much Pakistan is expected to need by 2016? Well, it all depends on who is in power. If corrupts like NS and Zardari would be in power then most likely there would be no or little growth in economy, and that would mean slow or maybe no growth in electricity demand. Possibly, Pakistan might need lower electricity in future if economy go completely down the drain.

In 1999, Pakistan had huge excess electricity generating capacity and it was expected that Pakistan would not go short of installed capacity for next 15 years. I think that installed capacity in 1999 could be around 17500 MW ... with potential to produce around 155 billion KWh of electricity, though Pakistan was producing around 60 billion KWh and was consuming around 54 billion KWh. Probably, maximum demand at any time was no more than 9000 MW and rest of capacity was waste of resources (Pakistan was obliged to buy all generated electricity by IPP at high price, regardless of Pakistan need it or not). Pakistan was in position to export electricity ... obviously at loss as excess electricity produced by IPP was mostly generated by fossil fuel.

Result was that Musharraf government did not increase installed capacity substantially (maybe increased around 2500 MW, almost all of them nuclear and hydro), though production of electricity kept increasing, from 60 billion KWh in 1999 to 100 billion KWh in 2007, and consumption of electricity also kept increasing from around 50 billion KWh to around 90 billion KWh. Such rapidly increasing demand due to very fast economical growth during last 8 years caused shortage of electricity during peak hours, and thus now country is thinking to increase electricity installed capacity substantially. It does not mean that peak demand has reached 20000 MW even now, but then since all units are not operative at all time, shortage do happen even if peak hour demand reaches 16000 or 17000 MW.

If 16000 MW would get added to national grid, then theoretically it would be able to cater 36000 MW of peak hour demand, but practically it might be able to cater around 30000 MW, depending on type of generating units. But, it is uncertain if demand is going to increase to level that would justify such increase in electricity generating capacity, as all would depends on how the economy would do in future.

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So peak our consumption is 20BW, what do you mean by “total consumption”? :konfused:

bhai “summarize” karna seekh lo :smack:

After all these paras I still don’t know:

  1. How much is peak hour demand?
  2. How much are we lacking/have-surplus in peak-hour demand?
  3. What about off-peak demand/supply?