Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

[ehtasab]

Plans for additional 16,000MW by 2015

By Khaleeq Kiani
ISLAMABAD, Aug 3: Pakistan plans to acquire an additional power generation** capacity of 16,000MW by 2015** and needs $30 billion investment to meet the target.

Talking to journalists here on Sunday after the inauguration of the Inter-governmental Conference on Central Asia-South Asia Regional Electricity Market, Water and Power Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf said the government would invest $10 billion for the additional capacity and generate another $20 billion through private sector by providing an enabling environment.

He said that loadshedding would come to an end by end of next year.
{ehtasab: really? :eek:, even though the frequency and duration of load-shedding is only going up}

He said the government organised recently a roundtable conference of international investors in Washington that was attended by 30 leading global players of coal-based power generating companies.
{ehtasab: :smack: coal-based!?!? we have no pollution problem, sure!}
The government would soon hold international competitive bidding to set up coal-fired power plants in the country, he said.

Responding to a question, he rejected reports that the World Bank had declined to finance Bhasha dam and said the work on the project would be taken up next year.

** The minister said the planned import of 1,000MW electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan **under the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA 1000) project would promote regional energy trade and lead to greater regional cooperation in economic and energy fields.

Responding to a question about security situation in Afghanistan and its impact on the electricity import from Central Asia, the minister said the project was in the economic interest of the neighbouring country and hence its people would ensure its completion.

Plans for additional 16,000MW by 2015 -DAWN - National; August 04, 2008
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
Importing 1000MW from C-Asia, how much demand will this 1000MW meet? By what time would this 1000MW come to country? By that time what would be the total need of the country?

[Sa1eem]

Well, these days Pakistan has coalition government of two mega-corrupts, Zardari and Shareef. Both have teams of corrupts with them and no one to control them. So, when we are talking about $30 billion expected investment then here is how it would go:

Zardari commission = $3 billion ($3 billion, or most would end up in Dubai or West)
Shareef commission = $2.5 billion ($1.5 billion would end up in Dubai or West)
PMLN lesser choors = $3.5 billion ($2 billion would end up in Dubai or West)
[PMLN lesser choors are bigger choors than PPP lesser choors, as PPP lesser choors do not have that much leverage in party decisions as PMLN lesser choors]
PPP lesser choors = $2 billion ($0.5 billion would end up in Dubai or West)
Government servants who would take their cuts (it is them who corrupt politicians use to get commissions, so when corrupt politicians rule, government servants get good cuts too): combined $10 billion ($3 billion would end up in Dubai or West).

Total to corruption = $21 billion ... out of that, $10 billion would end up in Dubai or West.
Total what Pakistan would get in investment = $9 billion ($30 billion - $21 billion)

Pakistan credit rating has gone down in recent months (and most likely it would go down further), so all these investment would come expensive, not at 4 to 5 percent interest what we were getting when Shaukat aziz was there, but most likely at 15 percent or more. That means $30 billion (actual = $9 billion) would cost Pakistan $4.5 billion a year (or more). Pakistan would keep borrowing to pay just interest (or guaranteed return) on that investment. Most of those borrowings would go in the pocket of corrupts too. That means, soon Pakistan would be in similar situation what it was during 90s when every day Pakistan was struggling to pay interest on dollar debts and was sitting on verge of bankruptcy. Since two mega-corrupts have joined forces to loot and plunder, it seems that Pakistani situation is getting towards situation of 90s quite rapidly.

Even though $30 billion investment might be enough to pay $4.5 billion to foreign investors (after a bit of stretching), obviously investment of $9 billion is not enough to generate $4.5 billion to pay foreign investors, so Pakistan would pay from own pocket, curtailing development budget and borrowing further. We can expect that, as Pakistan in 1999 was borrowing heavily to pay debts plus investing nothing on development because total tax collection was less than even defence expenditure plus interest. Pakistan was borrowing not only to cover defence expenditure and interest payment, but also for day to day government expenses. Fortunately, this government received an economy that is generating taxes not only to cover defence expenditure, interest payment and day to day government expenses, but Pakistan is left with 100s of billions from taxes for development expenditure and subsidies too. I feel that with fast increasing debt and corruptions, this condition of excess tax revenue may not last long.

I am hoping and praying that this does not happen but knowing past of the crooks in power, this might happen, and thus I have to pray that before these two thugs completely destroy the country again and bring it to similar position where they left Pakistan in 1999, something happens, that halts this deteriorating situation quickly.

[Amour]

Re: Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

good symbolic analysis Saleem, the real scenario will be more or less same.

[Spock]

Well, these days Pakistan has coalition government of two mega-corrupts, Zardari and Shareef. Both have teams of corrupts with them and no one to control them. So, when we are talking about $30 billion expected investment then here is how it would go:

Zardari commission = $3 billion ($3 billion, or most would end up in Dubai or West) Shareef commission = $2.5 billion ($1.5 billion would end up in Dubai or West) PMLN lesser choors = $3.5 billion ($2 billion would end up in Dubai or West) [PMLN lesser choors are bigger choors than PPP lesser choors, as PPP lesser choors do not have that much leverage in party decisions as PMLN lesser choors] PPP lesser choors = $2 billion ($0.5 billion would end up in Dubai or West) Government servants who would take their cuts (it is them who corrupt politicians use to get commissions, so when corrupt politicians rule, government servants get good cuts too): combined $10 billion ($3 billion would end up in Dubai or West).

Total to corruption = $21 billion ... out of that, $10 billion would end up in Dubai or West. Total what Pakistan would get in investment = $9 billion ($30 billion - $21 billion)

Pakistan credit rating has gone down in recent months (and most likely it would go down further), so all these investment would come expensive, not at 4 to 5 percent interest what we were getting when Shaukat aziz was there, but most likely at 15 percent or more. That means $30 billion (actual = $9 billion) would cost Pakistan $4.5 billion a year (or more). Pakistan would keep borrowing to pay just interest (or guaranteed return) on that investment. Most of those borrowings would go in the pocket of corrupts too. That means, soon Pakistan would be in similar situation what it was during 90s when every day Pakistan was struggling to pay interest on dollar debts and was sitting on verge of bankruptcy. Since two mega-corrupts have joined forces to loot and plunder, it seems that Pakistani situation is getting towards situation of 90s quite rapidly.

Even though $30 billion investment might be enough to pay $4.5 billion to foreign investors (after a bit of stretching), obviously investment of $9 billion is not enough to generate $4.5 billion to pay foreign investors, so Pakistan would pay from own pocket, curtailing development budget and borrowing further. We can expect that, as Pakistan in 1999 was borrowing heavily to pay debts plus investing nothing on development because total tax collection was less than even defence expenditure plus interest. Pakistan was borrowing not only to cover defence expenditure and interest payment, but also for day to day government expenses. Fortunately, this government received an economy that is generating taxes not only to cover defence expenditure, interest payment and day to day government expenses, but Pakistan is left with 100s of billions from taxes for development expenditure and subsidies too. I feel that with fast increasing debt and corruptions, this condition of excess tax revenue may not last long.

I am hoping and praying that this does not happen but knowing past of the crooks in power, this might happen, and thus I have to pray that before these two thugs completely destroy the country again and bring it to similar position where they left Pakistan in 1999, something happens, that halts this deteriorating situation quickly.

Ignoring the name calling and galli galouch, the investments during Shortcut Aziz's times were either just promises, or numbers, nothing really happened, pehley bhi bijli nahee thi, aur ab bhi nahee hai, thanks to the unprecedented corruption in the last decade.

[Sa1eem]

@Spock

Ignoring the name calling and galli galouch, the investments during Shortcut Aziz’s times were either just promises, or numbers, nothing really happened, pehley bhi bijli nahee thi, aur ab bhi nahee hai, thanks to the unprecedented corruption in the last decade.

I know that propaganda is your business, still, what name calling and galli galoch you are talking about? Is calling corrupt, thug and Liar to those who are corrupt, thug and Liar, name calling?

As for electricity generation, fact is that Pakistani population grew by 30 percent since 1999 and there was not only huge economical growth but spending boom since 1999 too. Pakistan GDP increased 250 percent, Per Capita income increased 150 percent, Reserves increased 2000 percent, Export increased 250 percent, Imports increased 300 percent, Tax collection increased 300 percent. Pakistani industries were working at full capacity, such that Pakistan stock market capitalisation increased 1500 percent and dividends increased 1000 percent during last 9 years (that shows not only increased sales but increased investment, production of goods and providing of services). There is no dispute that Pakistan had big boom in every sort of economical activities since 1999 and usage of white goods, from refrigerators to washing machine, air conditioner to TV and VCR, Media transmission to shops full of lights, all increased many folds, all needing electricity, and thus usage of electricity also increased many folds.

Now, do you mean to say that Pakistan had so much excess electricity in 1999 that Pakistan managed many fold increase in electricity usage between 1999 and 2008, without any further electricity production? Do you think that all Pakistanis are idiots and would accept propaganda how ever ridiculous and full of lies?

Actually, I have already given in my previous posts ages ago that Pakistan electricity production almost doubled between 1999 and 2007, as Pakistan was producing around 60 M KWh of electricity in 1999 that increased to around 100 M KWh in 2007 (with references).

http://www.paklinks.com/gs/pakistan-affairs/275577-critical-look-pak-economy.html

Sometime innocence of Pakistani masses, belief of propagandist that they can keep fooling people, and propaganda of corrupt thugs belonging to both parties, PMLN as well as PPP, amazes me.

[Spock]

@Sa1eem

I know that propaganda is your business, still, what name calling and galli galoch you are talking about? Is calling corrupt, thug and Liar to those who are corrupt, thug and Liar, name calling?

As for electricity generation, fact is that Pakistani population grew by 30 percent since 1999 and there was not only huge economical growth but spending boom since 1999 too. Pakistan GDP increased 250 percent, Per Capita income increased 150 percent, Reserves increased 2000 percent, Export increased 250 percent, Imports increased 300 percent, Tax collection increased 300 percent. Pakistani industries were working at full capacity, such that Pakistan stock market capitalisation increased 1500 percent and dividends increased 1000 percent during last 9 years (that shows not only increased sales but increased investment, production of goods and providing of services). There is no dispute that Pakistan had big boom in every sort of economical activities since 1999 and usage of white goods, from refrigerators to washing machine, air conditioner to TV and VCR, Media transmission to shops full of lights, all increased many folds, all needing electricity, and thus usage of electricity also increased many folds.

Now, do you mean to say that Pakistan had so much excess electricity in 1999 that Pakistan managed many fold increase in electricity usage between 1999 and 2008, without any further electricity production? Do you think that all Pakistanis are idiots and would accept propaganda how ever ridiculous and full of lies?

Actually, I have already given in my previous posts ages ago that Pakistan electricity production almost doubled between 1999 and 2007, as Pakistan was producing around 60 M KWh of electricity in 1999 that increased to around 100 M KWh in 2007 (with references).

http://www.paklinks.com/gs/pakistan-affairs/275577-critical-look-pak-economy.html

Sometime innocence of Pakistani masses, belief of propagandist that they can keep fooling people, and propaganda of corrupt thugs belonging to both parties, PMLN as well as PPP, amazes me.

Yep, and PML[Q] sweeped the elections with 175 seats based on their performance

[ehtasab]

Well, these days Pakistan has coalition government of two mega-corrupts, Zardari and Shareef. Both have teams of corrupts with them and no one to control them. So, when we are talking about $30 billion expected investment then here is how it would go:

Zardari commission = $3 billion ($3 billion, or most would end up in Dubai or West) Shareef commission = $2.5 billion ($1.5 billion would end up in Dubai or West) PMLN lesser choors = $3.5 billion ($2 billion would end up in Dubai or West) [PMLN lesser choors are bigger choors than PPP lesser choors, as PPP lesser choors do not have that much leverage in party decisions as PMLN lesser choors] PPP lesser choors = $2 billion ($0.5 billion would end up in Dubai or West) Government servants who would take their cuts (it is them who corrupt politicians use to get commissions, so when corrupt politicians rule, government servants get good cuts too): combined $10 billion ($3 billion would end up in Dubai or West).

Total to corruption = $21 billion ... out of that, $10 billion would end up in Dubai or West. Total what Pakistan would get in investment = $9 billion ($30 billion - $21 billion)

Pakistan credit rating has gone down in recent months (and most likely it would go down further), so all these investment would come expensive, not at 4 to 5 percent interest what we were getting when Shaukat aziz was there, but most likely at 15 percent or more. That means $30 billion (actual = $9 billion) would cost Pakistan $4.5 billion a year (or more). Pakistan would keep borrowing to pay just interest (or guaranteed return) on that investment. Most of those borrowings would go in the pocket of corrupts too. That means, soon Pakistan would be in similar situation what it was during 90s when every day Pakistan was struggling to pay interest on dollar debts and was sitting on verge of bankruptcy. Since two mega-corrupts have joined forces to loot and plunder, it seems that Pakistani situation is getting towards situation of 90s quite rapidly.

Even though $30 billion investment might be enough to pay $4.5 billion to foreign investors (after a bit of stretching), obviously investment of $9 billion is not enough to generate $4.5 billion to pay foreign investors, so Pakistan would pay from own pocket, curtailing development budget and borrowing further. We can expect that, as Pakistan in 1999 was borrowing heavily to pay debts plus investing nothing on development because total tax collection was less than even defence expenditure plus interest. Pakistan was borrowing not only to cover defence expenditure and interest payment, but also for day to day government expenses. Fortunately, this government received an economy that is generating taxes not only to cover defence expenditure, interest payment and day to day government expenses, but Pakistan is left with 100s of billions from taxes for development expenditure and subsidies too. I feel that with fast increasing debt and corruptions, this condition of excess tax revenue may not last long.

I am hoping and praying that this does not happen but knowing past of the crooks in power, this might happen, and thus I have to pray that before these two thugs completely destroy the country again and bring it to similar position where they left Pakistan in 1999, something happens, that halts this deteriorating situation quickly.

Don't you think it was (continued) stupidity of Musharraf to issue NRO? To pardon criminals and crooks like Zardari, Sharif, Elahi, Chaudharies etc?

[ehtasab]

@Sa1eem

Actually, I have already given in my previous posts ages ago that Pakistan electricity production almost doubled between 1999 and 2007, as Pakistan was producing around 60 M KWh of electricity in 1999 that increased to around 100 M KWh in 2007 (with references).

Source?

In 1988 Pakistan electricity production was around 33MW
In 1999 Pakistan electricity production was around 65MW, now THIS is double.

In 1999 = 65MW
In 2007 = 100MW, this is NOT double, close to 50%.

[Sa1eem]

@ehtasab

Source?

Bro, I have given reference of whatever I wrote in this thread.

Thread:
http://www.paklinks.com/gs/pakistan-affairs/275577-critical-look-pak-economy.html

Posts:
http://www.paklinks.com/gs/5620412-post17.html
http://www.paklinks.com/gs/5620523-post22.html

[Spock]

@Sa1eem

ctually, I have already given in my previous posts ages ago that Pakistan electricity production almost doubled between 1999 and 2007, as Pakistan was producing around 60 M KWh of electricity in 1999 that increased to around 100 M KWh in 2007 (with references).l

Not that I care or believe you, but your own source says it was 80 in 2007 :hehe:

Pakistan - Electricity - production - Historical Data Graphs per Year

[Spock]

@ehtasab

Source?

In 1988 Pakistan electricity production was around 33MW
In 1999 Pakistan electricity production was around 65MW, now THIS is double.

In 1999 = 65MW
In 2007 = 100MW, this is NOT double, close to 50%.

It’s not 100MW to begin with, Saleem was lying… It was 80 in 2007, even his own source said 80, heres another one:

** 2007- The total production till date is about 80,240,000,000

Electricity Production, Electric Production, Electricity Generation- EconomyofPakistan.com
**

[ehtasab]

@Spock

It’s not 100MW to begin with, Saleem was lying… It was 80 in 2007, even his own source said 80, heres another one:

** 2007- The total production till date is about 80,240,000,000

Electricity Production, Electric Production, Electricity Generation- EconomyofPakistan.com
**

I saw that but may be he wanted to say 2008 (even in 2008 its shown to be around 90) so I just let it go, so even that 100MW doesn’t make it “double” or even close to say “almost double”

[Sa1eem]

@Spock

Not that I care or believe you, but your own source says it was 80 in 2007 :hehe:

Pakistan - Electricity - production - Historical Data Graphs per Year

Meray bhai, the graph shows that Pakistan Electricity production increased from 60 Billion KWh on ‘1st of January 2000’ to 90 Billion KWh on ‘1st of January 2008 (or end of 2007)’… (not 80).

[Source: CIA World Factbook - Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is accurate as of January 1, 2008]

[ehtasab]

Re: Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

Lets ignore that and stop blaming/ridiculing each other for now.

My question: What are we going to do with 1000MW imported energy from C-Asia? Is it only for "testing" whether it can materialize/will-be-feasible etc?

What is current demand of the country? How much electricity is needed to stop any load-shedding?

[Spock]

@Sa1eem

Meray bhai, the graph shows that Pakistan Electricity production increased from 60 Billion KWh on ‘1st of January 2000’ to 90 Billion KWh on ‘1st of January 2008’ (not 80).

[Source: CIA World Factbook - Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is accurate as of January 1, 2008]

You said it was “100 in 2007”, because you wanted to give credit to Mushy/Shortcut, but even if we assume it was a mis’h’take, and you meant 2008, what happeened to your 100, why did it suddenly become 90? If you are saying its now 100, 5th Aug, then wow the new democratic Govt added 10-20 pretty quick innit

Talk about twisting and misrepresenting stuff! If only one of us bothered to verify what you actually wrote

[Spock]

@ehtasab

o even that 100MW doesn’t make it “double” or even close to say “almost double”

lol maybe he rounded it off, like shaukat aziz usually does

[Sa1eem]

Well, sometime CIA underestimates

Here is complete article on Pakistan electricity production: It shows that Pakistan produced 80 Billion KWh of electricity in 2004, whereas CIA graphs shows only 75 Billion KWh (January 2005).

Energy profile of Pakistan - Encyclopedia of Earth

Site also has graph with reference to EIA international Energgy Annual 2004, that shows increase in Pakistan electricity generation capacity from 1984 to 2004, and according to that graph, Pakistan was generating 80 Billion KWh of electricity in 2004. In Wikipedia (though that is not very reliable reference), it quotes that Pakistan produced 88.42 TWh (or 88.42 Billion KWh) of electricity in 2005.

Economy of Pakistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

What I know, Pakistan was producing around 100 Billion KWh in 2007. Anyhow, if we take wikipedia reference, Pakistan was producing over 88 Billion KWh of electricity in 2005, substantially more than around 60 billion KWh of electricity in 1999. That is 28 Billion KWh more electricity. In comparison, Pakistan was producing 40 Billion KWh of electricity in 1988, so Pakistan only added 20 Billion KWh of electricity production between 1988 and 1999 (11 years), much less than what Pakistan added between 1999 and 2005 (6 years). Even if we leave Wikipedia reference, then also in 5 years from 1999 to 2004, Pakistan added 20 Billion KWh of electricity production, and that is same as what was added in electricity production from 1988 to 1999.

[ehtasab]

Re: Plans for 16,000 MW by 2015

Sa1eem bhai, lets stop clutching at straws, can we address post#14?

[Spock]

2+2 = 10 in Musharraf/Shortcut Aziz's parallel universe

[Sa1eem]

@ehtasab

Lets ignore that and stop blaming/ridiculing each other for now.

My question: What are we going to do with 1000MW imported energy from C-Asia? Is it only for "testing" whether it can materialize/will-be-feasible etc?

What is current demand of the country? How much electricity is needed to stop any load-shedding?

What I have learned is that, in April 2008, Pakistan was producing 50 percent more electricity than today. Reason is that many thermal plants are not working today plus shortage of water in dams was also restricting electricity generation, that may easy after recent rains and increasing water inflow to dams. I think that if Pakistan can make all plants work then Pakistan would overcome most of electricity shortages.

So, problem is not just electricity shortages but increase in crude oil price, causing many electricity generating plants uneconomical to work. Import of electricity would only help if it is cheap, else that is no solution. Pakistan might be able to import cheap (hydro-generated) electricity from central Asia, or Iran might give some cheap electricity, but still, I think that it is temporary solution.

If Pakistan have to come out of electricity shortages, than they have to start building hydro-power plants (in other word ... dams ... big and small), nuclear power plants, solar power plants, wind-power plants, wave power plants, etc ... and come out of thermal power plants. Pakistan has potential to fulfil all Pakistan electricity requirement several times over using hydro-power... but needs political will and trust between provinces.

Unfortunately, thermal power plants are easy to build, and has potential of giving good commission to politicians, so politicians might go for it.