Pipelines from Turkmenistan and Iran to India

Society Military and Strategic Issues
1

The Nation 03 Oct 02

http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/today/main/top10.htm

**Iran for 3-party meeting on gas pipeline to India From Afzal Bajwa

ISLAMABAD – Following significant progress on the Pak-Turkmen gas pipeline, Iran has geared up work on the multibillion dollar competitor project of a similar proposed Iran-India pipeline via Pakistan, The Nation learnt on Wednesday.

Dr Ali Larijani, Chairman Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) who is also advisor to the President and member of the Iranian National Security Council on a visit to Pakistan these days, proposed Wednesday evening a tripartite meeting of Iran, India and Pakistan in Tehran on the West to East pipeline. Tehran is of the view that such interaction would address Indian security apprehensions and also pave way for better mutual understanding in South Asia.

“The tripartite steering committee of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan that met last month in Kabul had finalized terms of reference for the feasibility study to be conducted by the Asian Development Bank by June 2003,” a senior official told The Nation. The Steering Committee of concerned ministers of the three countries is tentatively scheduled to meet on 17th of this month at Ashkabad.

The official who attended the Kabul meeting said that ADB had reintroduced the Indian willingness to become partner in this project as buyer through Pak-Turkmen pipeline’s extension from Multan to New Delhi. “India is keen to join this project,” the official said while quoting the ADB representatives as saying in the Kabul meeting. There can be possibility of inviting the Indians, officially, to the meetings of the steering committee at a later stage, he added.

The fast track progress on Pak-Turkmen pipeline with ADB’s leading role, probably, has motivated Iran to gear up work on Iran-India pipeline as the two lines are competitors in a broader perspective. The competition between the two proposed pipelines is good from the buyer’s vantage point. India’s demand for natural gas is estimated at five to six billion cubic feet per day.

Larijani discussed with Petroleum Minister Usman Aminuddin, inter alia, the pipeline project with special focuss on its security when it passes through Pakistan and Islamabad’s permission to a Russian company Gazprom for studying Pak shallow waters as a third option. Two options namely, the overland route through Pakistan and deep sea line are already under study of companies engaged by Iran.

According to the official, Iran and Pakistan have agreed to let Gazprom do the pre-feasibility on third option which is carrying the line along the coast in Iran and through shallow waters in Pakistani territories and again on shore when it enters Southern India. However, Tehran would give its final view on Gazprom’s proposal after having in-house discussions in a due course of time, he said and added that depending upon which Islamabad would allow it to study Pak Shallow waters.

Meanwhile, a handout on the Larijani and Aminuddin meeting stated that Pakistan fully supported the proposed Iran-India Pipeline project and it will ensure all security comforts in this regard. This project will not only usher in a new era of socio-economic progress and prosperity of the people but will also help promote peace and tranquillity in the region, it added while quoting Aminuddin as saying.

While proposing a trilateral meeting in Tehran involving both India and Pakistan, Dr Larijani said it would address the security apprehensions of the Indians. He expressed his government’s desire for early implementation of the multi-dimensional Iran-India trans Pakistan gas pipeline project. He also expressed Tehran’s view that early implementation on this project would bring mutual understanding in South Asia.

Other issues discussed during the meeting were Pak-Iran coastal refinery, Pakistan’s assistance in development Compressed Natural Gas industry in Iran and effective control of cross-border smuggling of, especially, petroleum products. **

I would now request committed Guppies to put down, in their views what Confidence Building Measures Pakistan must adopt to be able to make this Pipeline Venture a Success.

Advantages for Pakistan : A total of USD Two Billion per Year in Transit Fees (From Turkmenistan to India and Iran to India) for the two Pipelines. In addition Pakistani People will get employment to provide Maintenance and Security for the Pipelines.

Advantage for India : A guaranteed source of Energy.

Disadvantage for India :

  1. Having Pakistan’s Fingers at India’s Energy Jugular. The supply can be stopped without notice – the Pipeline can be blown up. Pakistan can blackmail India in all sorts of ways with the threat to stop the supply of Gas.

  2. In case Pakistan uses these Two Billions for Armament then India will have to spend at least Ten Billions to Counter Pakistan’s Additional Armament.

Once again constructive views please.

Have a nice day while you are trying to figure out this one.

2

Pakistan Supports Iran-India Gas Project

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan fully supports the proposed Iran-India Gas Pipeline Project and it will ensure all security comforts in this regard, says Usman Aminuddin Minister of Petroleum and Natural resources.

The minister reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to allow projects for flow of hydrocarbons through its territory to neighbouring countries to ensure regional stability and bring socio-economic benefits to its people, says the press release issued on Wednesday.

He expressed these views while talking to the visiting Chairman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Dr Ali Larijani who paid a courtesy call on him here this morning. Mr. Usman Aminuddin said that Pakistan has always supported the proposed Iran-India gas pipeline at all international forums. He said that this project will not only usher in a new era of socio economic progress and prosperity for the people but also will help promote peace and tranquility in the region.

Mr Aminuddin also informed the Iranian dignitary about the proposed Pak-Iran Coastal Refinery Project and expressed Pakistan’s desire to its early implementation for the mutual benefit of the two countries. He said that Pakistan is also ready to provide its expertise to promote the CNG industry in Iran.

The minister also expressed Pakistan’s concern with regard to cross border smuggling of petroleum products causing enormous loss to both countries and asked the Iranian side to cooperate in this regard.

Reciprocating his sentiments Dr Larijani stated that both countries enjoy excellent brotherly relations in all walks of life. He expressed his government’s desire for early implementation of the multi dimensional Iran-India trans Pakistan gas pipeline project which will bring socio - economic stability in the region and opens up new vistas of bilateral cooperation.

He also expressed that early implementation would bring mutual understanding in the South Asian region. He proposed to arrange a trilateral meeting in Tehran to address the apprehensions of India regarding security of gas supply.

The chairman informed that Iranian government was considering to withdraw the subsidies on POL products. He underlined the need to strengthen Iran - Pakistan volume of economic and commercial ties in all spheres of life for mutual benefits.

Secretary, Petroleum and Natural Resources M Abdullah Yusuf, Joint Secretary (Dev) Khurshid Anwer, Director General (Gas) Naeem Malik, Ambassador of Iran to Pakistan and members of the Iranian delegation were also present in the meeting.

3

Bijar sahib, we will not stoop at your level, so you can be rest assured we wont block this pipeline, unless you really screw up...

4

Re: Pipelines from Turkmenistan and Iran to India

Advantage for India : A guaranteed source of Energy.

Disadvantage for India :

"1. Having Pakistan’s Fingers at India’s Energy Jugular. The supply can be stopped without notice – the Pipeline can be blown up. Pakistan can blackmail India in all sorts of ways with the threat to stop the supply of Gas."

I don't think you will have to worry about that as these multilateraql agreements have clauses protecting such activities. To ensure the secruity Pakistani Army can patrol the pipeline. I don't think that should deter you from oing ahead with it.

"2. In case Pakistan uses these Two Billions for Armament then India will have to spend at least Ten Billions to Counter Pakistan’s Additional Armament."

Well thats a value judgement isnt it? I mean most likely your scenario will be true but India as the bigger country should freeze defense increases and I'm fairly certain Pak. would not escalate. The pipeline is good on economc terms and it should be done.

I think that we should not bring politics into this issue because it is a very important matter to discuss with the cost-benefit analysis in mind. I, representing a Pakistani view can say that it is absolutely beneficial for Pakistan to be involved in this deal because its only serving a conduit and being paid accordingly. So any other views (espicially negative ones) should be brought to the forefront, so that misunderstandings are resolved.

5

Pakistani Tiger – Thank you for complementing my post with your additional input.

Spock - Bijar sahib, we will not stoop at your level, so you can be rest assured we wont block this pipeline, unless you really screw up...

Thank you so much for your assurances. I suppose that the term Bijar sahib must be another derogatory term that you use for Indians/Hindus. Well all I can say is ‘’Sticks and Stones..’’

I do not mean any affront to you.

**RajputFury -

  1. I don't think you will have to worry about that as these multilateraql agreements have clauses protecting such activities. To ensure the secruity Pakistani Army can patrol the pipeline. I don't think that should deter you from oing ahead with it.

  2. Well thats a value judgement isnt it? I mean most likely your scenario will be true but India as the bigger country should freeze defense increases and I'm fairly certain Pak. would not escalate. The pipeline is good on economc terms and it should be done.

I think that we should not bring politics into this issue because it is a very important matter to discuss with the cost-benefit analysis in mind. I, representing a Pakistani view can say that it is absolutely beneficial for Pakistan to be involved in this deal because its only serving a conduit and being paid accordingly. So any other views (espicially negative ones) should be brought to the forefront, so that misunderstandings are resolved.**

Multilateral agreements can be broken, of course with great difficulties as I suppose that the aggrieved party will have to go to the International Court of Justice.

The Problem is what does India do for the period of conflict i.e. during the time of stoppage. No Court of Justice is going to give an immediate Judgement. What if the Government of the Day in Pakistan refuses to abide by the Judgement? You are aware of the Millions of US Dollars that the Pakistani government is having to pay, the Foreign Oil Companies prospect in Balochistan, due to the heavy delays caused to the ‘’Prospecting’’ by the Balochistan Tribals.

The Pakistani Army is a highly Specialized and Motivated Force. Its job is to defend the Borders of Pakistan, not to guard the Gas Pipelines. Please forgive me for these honest words.

It is regrettable that every penny that India expends on Defence is considered by Pakistan to be ‘’Pakistan Specific’’.

In this respect you must appreciate that India has a huge nation of equal size of Population but Twice the GDP to contend with. China spends about USD 60 Billion on its Defence Budget. As such India to retain some parity will have to spend at least USD 30 Billion to bring some sort of feeling of Security. This expense will have to be made even if Pakistan, hypothetically for the sake of this discussion, disbands all its Armed forces.

Another reason for the Indians to be concerned of Pakistani designs is that even in this day and age the likes of mo_best are stating ‘’however when our armies under the banner of Islam pour over the Indian border we will remind you of the good old days’’ on the Thread ‘’This time Christians, and when Hindus and Sikhs?’’ in this section of this Forum. Do you think that the Government of India should have Pakistan make USD Two Billion a Year so that the Armies under the Banner of Islam can come pouring over India's Borders?

Let us now put our cards on the table.

You are a patriotic Pakistani who is looking at the ‘’Pipeline’’ deal from the ‘’Beneficial to Pakistan’’ angle. I could not agree more with you. Two Billion U S Dollars is not a small amount which can be frowned upon. I support you in this as I have no deeply embedded enmity for Pakistan.

I am also patriotic person but a Patriotic Indian. I would want these two Pipeline Projects to come to fruition as they would give a guaranteed supply of Energy from Turkmenistan and Iran. I trust you also support me in this.

The alternative to the Land Pipelines via Pakistan is to go for a Deep Sea Pipeline. In this respect some years ago Oman carried out a Survey for building a Deep Sea Pipeline to India the cost of which was USD 12 Billion.

Since it would carry Gas only from Oman it was too costly. However, now India is working on sourcing its Natural Gas supplies from Oman, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkmenistan. In addition India is also working on getting Natural Gas from Bangladesh and possibly Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

The advantage of the Deep Sea Pipeline is that it will also be able to have Natural Gas piped in from Iran. Iran will have to build a small section of Pipeline from Iran to Oman. The Annual Cost of maintenance of this Deep Sea Pipeline will be negligible as the Pipe Line is embedded deep into the Sea Bed.

I will search around and will try to find more information on this Deep Sea Pipeline. I hope my above figure of USD 12 Billion for this Deep Sea Pipeline is correct as it is just a figure which I remember and need some sort of confirmation.

I only hope Pakistan can create some Confidence Building Measures with India so that both India and Pakistan can benefit mutually. Building a Land Pipeline will benefit Pakistani Labour force. Building a Deep Sea Pipeline will only benefit the European/American/Japanese contractors and their work force.

The other alternative for India is to have its own Natural Gas Tanker Fleet so that it can be used to get Natural Gas form other far away Countries like Libya and Algeria in addition to that from the Persian Gulf Countries and South East Asia.

As I have stated before there is a deep sense of hostility in Pakistan for any benefit to India and I am sure that there is the same deep sense of hostility in India for any benefit to Pakistan. Pakistan will have to convince India that the statement ‘’ their armies under the banner of Islam pour over the Indian Borders to remind the Indians of the good old days’’ is a figment of somebody’s imagination and not a goal that Pakistan is working for. If India cannot have secure Borders with Pakistan then how can it believe that Pakistan will not stop or in any way disrupt the supply of Natural Gas from Iran and Turkmenistan via the Land Pipeline through Pakistan.

It is in Pakistan’s interest that a suitable via media is created so that such mutually beneficial projects with India can succeed.

In this respect a Strong Military Leadership at the Centre in Pakistan is most likely to succeed. However, nobody can guarantee that if a Fully Independent Political Government takes over then it will Honour the Military Government's Obligations.

Have a real nice day

6

sooner or later India should come to terms with the fact that for that region to progress, some economic co-operation is going to have to take place. If they can deal with fundamentalist regimes like Oman, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Afghanistan, then it makes sense to put business first with regards to Pakistan as well. We could always keep on wasting our resources instead of course.

7

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Mr Xtreme: *
sooner or later India should come to terms with the fact that for that region to progress, some economic co-operation is going to have to take place. If they can deal with fundamentalist regimes like Oman, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Afghanistan, then it makes sense to put business first with regards to Pakistan as well. We could always keep on wasting our resources instead of course.
[/QUOTE]

Mr Xtreme

It would have been better if you had kindly let me have the benefit of your views on my full post.

Your statement – in general – cannot be doubted.

However India fortunately neither shares common borders with Oman, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Afghanistan nor does India have any disputes with them.

A country cannot choose the regimes, fundamentalist or otherwise, it has to do business with.

Once Pakistan decides that having normal and good relations with India are in Pakistan’s Interests then Pakistan will take the necessary steps to put Business Relationships First and normalise its relations with India. One of the steps taken by India is to grant Pakistan the Most Favoured Nation Status for Pakistani Goods. Pakistan has not given India the MFN Status for Indian Goods.

Until then both India and Pakistan will continue to waste their resources.

In the meanwhile you and I can pull our Hair in Despair.

Have a nice day

8

[QUOTE]
Originally posted by bdsurti: *
**Pakistani Tiger* – Thank you for complementing my post with your additional input.

Spock - Bijar sahib, we will not stoop at your level, so you can be rest assured we wont block this pipeline, unless you really screw up...

Thank you so much for your assurances. I suppose that the term Bijar sahib must be another derogatory term that you use for Indians/Hindus. Well all I can say is ‘’Sticks and Stones..’’

I do not mean any affront to you.

**RajputFury -

  1. I don't think you will have to worry about that as these multilateraql agreements have clauses protecting such activities. To ensure the secruity Pakistani Army can patrol the pipeline. I don't think that should deter you from oing ahead with it.

  2. Well thats a value judgement isnt it? I mean most likely your scenario will be true but India as the bigger country should freeze defense increases and I'm fairly certain Pak. would not escalate. The pipeline is good on economc terms and it should be done.

I think that we should not bring politics into this issue because it is a very important matter to discuss with the cost-benefit analysis in mind. I, representing a Pakistani view can say that it is absolutely beneficial for Pakistan to be involved in this deal because its only serving a conduit and being paid accordingly. So any other views (espicially negative ones) should be brought to the forefront, so that misunderstandings are resolved.**

Multilateral agreements can be broken, of course with great difficulties as I suppose that the aggrieved party will have to go to the International Court of Justice.

The Problem is what does India do for the period of conflict i.e. during the time of stoppage. No Court of Justice is going to give an immediate Judgement. What if the Government of the Day in Pakistan refuses to abide by the Judgement? You are aware of the Millions of US Dollars that the Pakistani government is having to pay, the Foreign Oil Companies prospect in Balochistan, due to the heavy delays caused to the ‘’Prospecting’’ by the Balochistan Tribals.

The Pakistani Army is a highly Specialized and Motivated Force. Its job is to defend the Borders of Pakistan, not to guard the Gas Pipelines. Please forgive me for these honest words.

It is regrettable that every penny that India expends on Defence is considered by Pakistan to be ‘’Pakistan Specific’’.

In this respect you must appreciate that India has a huge nation of equal size of Population but Twice the GDP to contend with. China spends about USD 60 Billion on its Defence Budget. As such India to retain some parity will have to spend at least USD 30 Billion to bring some sort of feeling of Security. This expense will have to be made even if Pakistan, hypothetically for the sake of this discussion, disbands all its Armed forces.

Another reason for the Indians to be concerned of Pakistani designs is that even in this day and age the likes of mo_best are stating ‘’however when our armies under the banner of Islam pour over the Indian border we will remind you of the good old days’’ on the Thread ‘’This time Christians, and when Hindus and Sikhs?’’ in this section of this Forum. Do you think that the Government of India should have Pakistan make USD Two Billion a Year so that the Armies under the Banner of Islam can come pouring over India's Borders?

Let us now put our cards on the table.

You are a patriotic Pakistani who is looking at the ‘’Pipeline’’ deal from the ‘’Beneficial to Pakistan’’ angle. I could not agree more with you. Two Billion U S Dollars is not a small amount which can be frowned upon. I support you in this as I have no deeply embedded enmity for Pakistan.

I am also patriotic person but a Patriotic Indian. I would want these two Pipeline Projects to come to fruition as they would give a guaranteed supply of Energy from Turkmenistan and Iran. I trust you also support me in this.

The alternative to the Land Pipelines via Pakistan is to go for a Deep Sea Pipeline. In this respect some years ago Oman carried out a Survey for building a Deep Sea Pipeline to India the cost of which was USD 12 Billion.

Since it would carry Gas only from Oman it was too costly. However, now India is working on sourcing its Natural Gas supplies from Oman, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkmenistan. In addition India is also working on getting Natural Gas from Bangladesh and possibly Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

The advantage of the Deep Sea Pipeline is that it will also be able to have Natural Gas piped in from Iran. Iran will have to build a small section of Pipeline from Iran to Oman. The Annual Cost of maintenance of this Deep Sea Pipeline will be negligible as the Pipe Line is embedded deep into the Sea Bed.

I will search around and will try to find more information on this Deep Sea Pipeline. I hope my above figure of USD 12 Billion for this Deep Sea Pipeline is correct as it is just a figure which I remember and need some sort of confirmation.

I only hope Pakistan can create some Confidence Building Measures with India so that both India and Pakistan can benefit mutually. Building a Land Pipeline will benefit Pakistani Labour force. Building a Deep Sea Pipeline will only benefit the European/American/Japanese contractors and their work force.

The other alternative for India is to have its own Natural Gas Tanker Fleet so that it can be used to get Natural Gas form other far away Countries like Libya and Algeria in addition to that from the Persian Gulf Countries and South East Asia.

As I have stated before there is a deep sense of hostility in Pakistan for any benefit to India and I am sure that there is the same deep sense of hostility in India for any benefit to Pakistan. Pakistan will have to convince India that the statement ‘’ their armies under the banner of Islam pour over the Indian Borders to remind the Indians of the good old days’’ is a figment of somebody’s imagination and not a goal that Pakistan is working for. If India cannot have secure Borders with Pakistan then how can it believe that Pakistan will not stop or in any way disrupt the supply of Natural Gas from Iran and Turkmenistan via the Land Pipeline through Pakistan.

It is in Pakistan’s interest that a suitable via media is created so that such mutually beneficial projects with India can succeed.

In this respect a Strong Military Leadership at the Centre in Pakistan is most likely to succeed. However, nobody can guarantee that if a Fully Independent Political Government takes over then it will Honour the Military Government's Obligations.

Have a real nice day
[/QUOTE]

yara it was a typo... I did not want to type bijar, besides, bijar is not a deregatory word, as far as I know, so my apologizes, it was a typo...

9

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Spock: *

yara it was a typo... I did not want to type bijar, besides, bijar is not a deregatory word, as far as I know, so my apologizes, it was a typo...
[/QUOTE]

Spockji

Please forgive me for labouring under a misconception.

Have a nice day*YARAJI*

10

"Multilateral agreements can be broken, of course with great difficulties as I suppose that the aggrieved party will have to go to the International Court of Justice.

The Problem is what does India do for the period of conflict i.e. during the time of stoppage. No Court of Justice is going to give an immediate Judgement. What if the Government of the Day in Pakistan refuses to abide by the Judgement? You are aware of the Millions of US Dollars that the Pakistani government is having to pay, the Foreign Oil Companies prospect in Balochistan, due to the heavy delays caused to the ‘’Prospecting’’ by the Balochistan Tribals."

I agree with the apprisal. I think the problem to solution is simple: India will have to rely on the present system of procuring energy from standard trade route, in the case of a Pakistani blockage. I think that in your point of view, this is the most dangerous scenario, and the solution is to maintain a contingency plan.

"The Pakistani Army is a highly Specialized and Motivated Force. Its job is to defend the Borders of Pakistan, not to guard the Gas Pipelines. Please forgive me for these honest words."

My apologies when I referred to the Armed Forces I did not specify further, I was refering to the paramilitary divisions which are already provincially in place. I suppose the pipeline would come under Balchistan Scouts and Pakistan Rangers. I don't understand why you are concerned about this matter? I mean you want security against terrorist attacks, and we're providing it to you.

"It is regrettable that every penny that India expends on Defence is considered by Pakistan to be ‘’Pakistan Specific’’.

In this respect you must appreciate that India has a huge nation of equal size of Population but Twice the GDP to contend with. China spends about USD 60 Billion on its Defence Budget. As such India to retain some parity will have to spend at least USD 30 Billion to bring some sort of feeling of Security. This expense will have to be made even if Pakistan, hypothetically for the sake of this discussion, disbands all its Armed forces."

Look, from our point of view, Pakistan's biggest threat is from India, not Iran, Afghanistan, China. Ok the same way you can do a risk assesment and I think from you too will agree that Pakistan is India's nbiggest threat rather than China. Look at history, wars fought etc. So I say that the onus is on India because your the ones with the bigger population, defense expenditures, armed forces etc. I mean we could even come to a better conclusion, if you reason that Indian nukes will be a good enough deterrent for china. I think if Indians adopt the strategy of nuclear deterance as the central theme and demiliterize the conventional forces, they would:

  1. Induce Pakistan in doing the same, as Pakistan will have the nuke option as well.

  2. Clearly show China that Indians mean business if they are ever attacked.

Think about it, you as a Chinese warplanner, risk a nuke attack because you know that the other side only has one option? I think not.

"Another reason for the Indians to be concerned of Pakistani designs is that even in this day and age the likes of mo_best are stating ‘’however when our armies under the banner of Islam pour over the Indian border we will remind you of the good old days’’ on the Thread ‘’This time Christians, and when Hindus and Sikhs?’’ in this section of this Forum. Do you think that the Government of India should have Pakistan make USD Two Billion a Year so that the Armies under the Banner of Islam can come pouring over India's Borders?"

Lets be fair and admit that Indians have made the same type of radical statements. Would you agree? There will be extremists on boh ends, but it will the moderates who decide. So will someone posting on Gupshup deter you or do you believe that ALL Pakistanis think this way? If you do than I must say you sadly mistaken. This pipeline deal is a win-win for all parties involved and I hope that the Indian leadership excercises good judgement in not letting a few loose cannons spoil the deal.

"Let us now put our cards on the table.

You are a patriotic Pakistani who is looking at the ‘’Pipeline’’ deal from the ‘’Beneficial to Pakistan’’ angle. I could not agree more with you. Two Billion U S Dollars is not a small amount which can be frowned upon. I support you in this as I have no deeply embedded enmity for Pakistan."

Great! yes I am looking for the deal for the above reasons.

"I am also patriotic person but a Patriotic Indian. I would want these two Pipeline Projects to come to fruition as they would give a guaranteed supply of Energy from Turkmenistan and Iran. I trust you also support me in this."

Clearly I do.

"The alternative to the Land Pipelines via Pakistan is to go for a Deep Sea Pipeline. In this respect some years ago Oman carried out a Survey for building a Deep Sea Pipeline to India the cost of which was USD 12 Billion."

Where has a deep sea pipeline been done successfully? It is very risky in terms of initial cost and annual upkeep.

"Since it would carry Gas only from Oman it was too costly. However, now India is working on sourcing its Natural Gas supplies from Oman, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkmenistan. In addition India is also working on getting Natural Gas from Bangladesh and possibly Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei."

Right. You still pass through Pakistani territory or Pakistan controlled waters. The pipeline cannot be done solely on the international water. In the southeast asian nations, you options of supply are better but the resources are limited in comprison to the mideast.

"The advantage of the Deep Sea Pipeline is that it will also be able to have Natural Gas piped in from Iran. Iran will have to build a small section of Pipeline from Iran to Oman. The Annual Cost of maintenance of this Deep Sea Pipeline will be negligible as the Pipe Line is embedded deep into the Sea Bed."

Iran to Oman and then India? I don't think so. Even if you get it done and if you go in the basis of Pakistan having evil designs on the pipeline, what makes you think that Pakistan cannot disrupt supply for the sea based pipeline? If you go by that hypothetical, India spends much more money and still ends up at the same situation. I do hope you understand Pakistan, Oman and Iran are quite compactly linked in terms of trad routes.

"I only hope Pakistan can create some Confidence Building Measures with India so that both India and Pakistan can benefit mutually. Building a Land Pipeline will benefit Pakistani Labour force. Building a Deep Sea Pipeline will only benefit the European/American/Japanese contractors and their work force.

The other alternative for India is to have its own Natural Gas Tanker Fleet so that it can be used to get Natural Gas form other far away Countries like Libya and Algeria in addition to that from the Persian Gulf Countries and South East Asia.

As I have stated before there is a deep sense of hostility in Pakistan for any benefit to India and I am sure that there is the same deep sense of hostility in India for any benefit to Pakistan. Pakistan will have to convince India that the statement ‘’ their armies under the banner of Islam pour over the Indian Borders to remind the Indians of the good old days’’ is a figment of somebody’s imagination and not a goal that Pakistan is working for. If India cannot have secure Borders with Pakistan then how can it believe that Pakistan will not stop or in any way disrupt the supply of Natural Gas from Iran and Turkmenistan via the Land Pipeline through Pakistan.

It is in Pakistan’s interest that a suitable via media is created so that such mutually beneficial projects with India can succeed.

In this respect a Strong Military Leadership at the Centre in Pakistan is most likely to succeed. However, nobody can guarantee that if a Fully Independent Political Government takes over then it will Honour the Military Government's Obligations."

Yea I think you need to understand the benefits to everyone and disregard the extreme voices-- on al ends. Progress should not be stopped because of politics. My background is in business so I will admit to my biases to this matter in looking for the monetary gain. Hope to see some more postive steps towards this plan.

Have a real nice day
[/QUOTE]

11

Im very excited about the prospects that are begining to avail themselves to us.
I want to make a few points.
1. This WILL definently improve relation between Pak and India. Atleast indireectly. Pakistan will be gaining a huge profit, and I dont know a single country that would waste the oppurtunity. This pipeline, with its many benefits will be a strong deterant aganst war. Pakistan will see the benefits and do all it can to prevent a war, India will see the same benefits, and make sure to not go to war. Now, not only will the US be involved, but so will the Iranis, and the thousands in India that rely on the Gas, plus the many that will find employment from it in Pakistan.

  1. Pakistan can shut down the pipeline, but it will never do that, just as India threatened to cut of our water, we wouldnt cut of their gas, although it would be easy for us to do so. As long as India doesnt openly go to war, which they wont.

  2. Im a strong supporter of the Kashmir cause. And I am totally an enemy of India when it comes to Kkashmir, but we hae to realize something. Our Kashmir Policy is self defeating. If we continue this way, we will not gain a thing, if we force India to have a referandum, kashmiris will vote to be independant, if we manage to win it thru force, we will still have to give them a referandum and end up losing it. So regardless of what happens we will lose Kashmir. Infact we will end up losing way more then India. We will not only lose our pride, but also a highly stategic province, which is our only border with China.
    Aand even if we were to get Kashmir, what could we offer them? What do we have that they would want to be a part of?
    The best option that Pakistan has is to improve its relation with India, improve its economy, to minimize its role in Kashmir for the present, and make give itself a better postion in the region. With a better economy, we may be able to lure the Kashmiris back to our side with promise of a better life, we will have more international support, we will have economic muscle, which would equal military muscle, and we would have the good will of the Indians, who would be more sensative to Pakistans point. I think with all said and done, we may be able to secure the Valey at the very least.
    Point being, a sacraficing our principled stance for the momment, and focus on our economy. I think a economicly strong Pakistan, is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have right now.
    Thats why I think we should put aside our differences for the time being and allow the Pipeline to go thru.

12

RajputFury

I agree with the apprisal. I think the problem to solution is simple: India will have to rely on the present system of procuring energy from standard trade route, in the case of a Pakistani blockage. I think that in your point of view, this is the most dangerous scenario, and the solution is to maintain a contingency plan.

The problem in this case is that one a Land Pipeline is built there will be no Gas Tankers constructed for the Trade – None will be available. If some are to be pulled out from the Contracted Duties then the Transportation Costs will be sky high

My apologies when I referred to the Armed Forces I did not specify further, I was refering to the paramilitary divisions which are already provincially in place. I suppose the pipeline would come under Balchistan Scouts and Pakistan Rangers. I don't understand why you are concerned about this matter? I mean you want security against terrorist attacks, and we're providing it to you.

The Balochistan Scouts and Pakistan Rangers are unable to allow the present prospecting for Oil and Gas to work to their full capacity as the Tribals for some reason or the other cause heavy delays for which the Pakistani government has to pay very heavy penalties to the Foreign Oil Companies.

In such conditions what chances does the Land Pipeline to ‘’Old enemy’’ India stand?

**Look, from our point of view, Pakistan's biggest threat is from India, not Iran, Afghanistan, China. Ok the same way you can do a risk assesment and I think from you too will agree that Pakistan is India's nbiggest threat rather than China. Look at history, wars fought etc. So I say that the onus is on India because your the ones with the bigger population, defense expenditures, armed forces etc. I mean we could even come to a better conclusion, if you reason that Indian nukes will be a good enough deterrent for china. I think if Indians adopt the strategy of nuclear deterance as the central theme and demiliterize the conventional forces, they would:

  1. Induce Pakistan in doing the same, as Pakistan will have the nuke option as well.

  2. Clearly show China that Indians mean business if they are ever attacked.

Think about it, you as a Chinese warplanner, risk a nuke attack because you know that the other side only has one option? I think not.**

Oh wise one this is the scenario dictated by population size and economic viability.

India’s Population is Seven Times that of Pakistan. India’s Economy is nearly Nine Times that of Pakistan.

Herein I digress with a small Analogy. My Family has 4 members. My net Income is Pakistani Rs. 10,000 per month. Your Family has 28 Members. Your net income is Pakistani Rs. 85,000 per Month.

For me to say that I will have a House, Car etc etc. which are half the ones that you have is not only stupid but it borders on Madness.

I believe India’s Armed forces are about 1,200,000. Pakistan’s Armed forces are 600,000.

With due respect, for reasons that I neither doubt nor want to waste your and my time, it seems that Pakistan should reduce its Armed Forces. Whether Pakistan reduces them is Pakistan’s prerogative. It is Pakistan’s resources and Pakistan does what Pakistan likes. I have only opined.

As far as India is concerned, India has to have sufficient strength to deter the Chinese. The Chinese Armed Forces size is 2,800,000.

If you would want India to Half its Armed Forces from 1,200,000 to 600,000 so that Pakistan can reduce from 600,000 to 300,000 while China maintains at 2,800,000 then it is not on. Pakistan’s hypothesis that it should have Fifty per cent of Armed Forces as India and then expect India to have about Twenty percent of China’s Armed Forces takes the argument from the Ridiculous to the Sublime. If India goes by the Pakistani hypothesis of having Fifty per cent of the Armed forces of the other then India, vis-à-vis China, should increase its Armed Forces to at least 1,400,000.

I think that the Nuclear Option is no option at all. For all their swashbuckling jingoistic rhetoric the Pakistani Leaders will never resort to Nuclear Weapons. The reason being that Pakistan will destroy possibly one-third or even half of India but then what about Pakistan?

Various Pakistani Commentators state ‘’In such a case there will be no Pakistan’’

Thus I am sure better sense will prevail and there will be no India-Pakistan War. If it does occur there will be no use of Nuclear Weapons.

Lets be fair and admit that Indians have made the same type of radical statements. Would you agree? There will be extremists on boh ends, but it will the moderates who decide. So will someone posting on Gupshup deter you or do you believe that ALL Pakistanis think this way? If you do than I must say you sadly mistaken. This pipeline deal is a win-win for all parties involved and I hope that the Indian leadership excercises good judgement in not letting a few loose cannons spoil the deal.

Agree with you that it is the moderates who decide, but, I add AT THE PRESENT. The Extremists voices are heard by all of us. The SILENCE of the Moderates is deafening.

This pipeline deal would be a win-win situation for both India and Pakistan. If others benefit then that is God’s Grace. However, please put your self in the Indian Strategists’ shoes. They hear only the Voices of the Religious Extremists and Pakistan’s Military Leaders. The Moderates are conspicuous by their SILENCE.

Where has a deep sea pipeline been done successfully? It is very risky in terms of initial cost and annual upkeep.

Let me find out about the Oman-India Gas Pipeline. I think the depths countered will be about 10,000 Feet. I believe Modern Technology can go up to 30,000 Feet Depth.

Risk : Very Safe. Deeply embedded in the Sea Floor.

Annual Upkeep : Virtually NIL. No Oxygen to cause any Rust etc. The embedded pipe line will be Coated with various protectives.

Right. You still pass through Pakistani territory or Pakistan controlled waters. The pipeline cannot be done solely on the international water. In the southeast asian nations, you options of supply are better but the resources are limited in comprison to the mideast.

The Oman-India Pipeline will be about Three to Four Hundred Miles away form the Pakistani Coast. That is why the Cost is about USD 12 Billion. I still cannot find the information.

Latest News : The Australians are in New Delhi touting their ‘’More Economical’’ Gas supply to India. Australian Gas Reserves are about 45 Trillion Cubic Feet – about the same as China but with less then Two per cent of China’s Population. Australian Population is about Twenty Million i.e. Karachi + Lahore. Australia also has Huge Coal Reserves.

Iran to Oman and then India? I don't think so. Even if you get it done and if you go in the basis of Pakistan having evil designs on the pipeline, what makes you think that Pakistan cannot disrupt supply for the sea based pipeline? If you go by that hypothetical, India spends much more money and still ends up at the same situation. I do hope you understand Pakistan, Oman and Iran are quite compactly linked in terms of trad routes.

As I have already explained the Deep Sea Pipeline is International Waters which are beyond Pakistan’s Economic Zone.

Yea I think you need to understand the benefits to everyone and disregard the extreme voices-- on al ends. Progress should not be stopped because of politics. My background is in business so I will admit to my biases to this matter in looking for the monetary gain. Hope to see some more postive steps towards this plan.

I reiterate that the ball is really in Pakistan’s Court. A start could be made with Pakistan granting Indian Goods the Most Favoured Nation Status, which, it has not granted for the last possibly Five Years i.e. Pakistani goods enjoy MFN from India, but, Pakistan refuses to give the same to Indian Goods.

India cannot go on giving concessions without a suitable response.

The way this discussion is going on it seems to me that India and Pakistan should refer all their problems and differences to the Guppies who seem to have the ability to solve them i.e. JAW-JAW IS BETTER THAN WAR-WAR.

Despite all the problems that India will face with the Land Pipeline through Pakistan, and the Mind says NO, the Heart says YES. Mutual Benefits are the Best.

Have a nice day

13

Adnan Ahmed Ji

*Im very excited about the prospects that are begining to avail themselves to us.
I want to make a few points.
1. This WILL definently improve relation between Pak and India. Atleast indireectly. Pakistan will be gaining a huge profit, and I dont know a single country that would waste the oppurtunity. This pipeline, with its many benefits will be a strong deterant aganst war. Pakistan will see the benefits and do all it can to prevent a war, India will see the same benefits, and make sure to not go to war. Now, not only will the US be involved, but so will the Iranis, and the thousands in India that rely on the Gas, plus the many that will find employment from it in Pakistan. *

  1. Sir, first the relations should improve as a harbinger for furthering business ventures. With the Pipe Line physically in Pakistan Iran and the USA can do ‘’Diddly Squat’’.

On Pakistan’s stopping the Gas flow will Iran and USA bomb Pakistan or invade it? Even the Indians will not consider such a scenario.

With due respect your figures – of Thousands - for the Indians who would depend on this Gas is not even worth laughing at. It will be over Five Hundred Million Users as this Gas would be supplied as far south in India as Goa or Mangalore.

Regarding War : Example : Pakistan occupies say 1,000 Miles of India Territory. India Retaliates. Pakistan shuts off the Gas Supply.

Win-Win situation for Pakistan. Lose-Lose situation for India.

2. Pakistan can shut down the pipeline, but it will never do that, just as India threatened to cut of our water, we wouldnt cut of their gas, although it would be easy for us to do so. As long as India doesnt openly go to war, which they wont.

  1. Adnan Ji : I do like to take a flutter at the bookies. I would put the Odds for Pakistan to shut the Gas at Five to One. This is a Conservative Figure.

Reason : Like the rest of the World, India is concerned at the Religious Extremist and Military Lobby and Leadership in Pakistan. Yes India does have its share of Religious Extremists but at least the Military is in Control. Thus Democracy has taken deep roots in India. It is not perfect but then what is.

As long as India does not go to War it is Fine. What happens if Pakistan goes to War?

Win-Win situation for Pakistan. Lose-Lose situation for India.

**3. Im a strong supporter of the Kashmir cause. And I am totally an enemy of India when it comes to Kkashmir, but we hae to realize something. Our Kashmir Policy is self defeating. If we continue this way, we will not gain a thing, if we force India to have a referandum, kashmiris will vote to be independant, if we manage to win it thru force, we will still have to give them a referandum and end up losing it. So regardless of what happens we will lose Kashmir. Infact we will end up losing way more then India. We will not only lose our pride, but also a highly stategic province, which is our only border with China.

Aand even if we were to get Kashmir, what could we offer them? What do we have that they would want to be a part of?
The best option that Pakistan has is to improve its relation with India, improve its economy, to minimize its role in Kashmir for the present, and make give itself a better postion in the region. With a better economy, we may be able to lure the Kashmiris back to our side with promise of a better life, we will have more international support, we will have economic muscle, which would equal military muscle, and we would have the good will of the Indians, who would be more sensative to Pakistans point. I think with all said and done, we may be able to secure the Valey at the very least.
Point being, a sacraficing our principled stance for the momment, and focus on our economy. I think a economicly strong Pakistan, is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have right now.
Thats why I think we should put aside our differences for the time being and allow the Pipeline to go thru.

Aand even if we were to get Kashmir, what could we offer them? What do we have that they would want to be a part of?
The best option that Pakistan has is to improve its relation with India, improve its economy, to minimize its role in Kashmir for the present, and make give itself a better postion in the region. With a better economy, we may be able to lure the Kashmiris back to our side with promise of a better life, we will have more international support, we will have economic muscle, which would equal military muscle, and we would have the good will of the Indians, who would be more sensative to Pakistans point. I think with all said and done, we may be able to secure the Valey at the very least.
Point being, a sacraficing our principled stance for the momment, and focus on our economy. I think a economicly strong Pakistan, is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have right now.
Thats why I think we should put aside our differences for the time being and allow the Pipeline to go thru.**

  1. How Pakistan and India work out the Kashmir Problem is for the two Countries’ Leadership to decide.

I find your statement ‘’I think an economically strong Pakistan is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have now’’ very disturbing.

You mean that India should do its best to keep Pakistan Economically weak?

Then India should NEVER, NEVER USE this Land Pipeline through Pakistan and have Pakistan benefit to the tune of USD Two Billion Per Year.

You have got it wrong my friend. Please refer to the Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee’s speech in this regard. He said something like ‘’It is in India’s Interest that Pakistan is Strong and Stable.’’ Nobody wants a weak Country as its neighbour.

Would you like to have a neighbour whose house is in a poor and dilapidated condition?

My Friend the answer to this problem is in Pakistan presenting India with Confidence Building Measures. Regretfully such an exercise is doomed to failure as long as Pakistan insists that it Maintain a Military Strength Parity with India

If the situation was reversed and India could make USD Two Billion Per Year (Actually you should think in terms of USD Fourteen Billion as India is well above Seven Times Pakistan in Economic Size) and then hold a finger to Pakistan’s Jugular, with the Indian Government being a Military Dominated one with heavy shades of Religious Extremism, what would the Democratically Elected non-Military dominated Government of Pakistan want to do? Would it allow India to hold its finger on Pakistan's Jugular.

This is the Problem that India is facing.

Have a nice day

14

  1. I should say your a real pesamist.
    Relation between Pakistan India can ONLY improve if there is someting of mutual benefit. This pipeline is a start, something that all three countries can find cooperation through. You dont understand my referance to Iran and US pressure to go to war. First, the Americans were willing to go to all ends to stop a war this time around, they will be even more cautios in the future. And no the Americans will not bomb Pakistan for shutting of the supply. But the pressure will certainly be there not to. The Indians will run to them and force them to warn Pakistan of the consequences. As for my figure, FINE, MILLIONS of Indians. Happy, I didnt go out and count the number of people benefiting, I just tossed out a number.
    And Regarding War : Example : Pakistan occupies say 1,000 Miles of India Territory.
    India Retaliates. Pakistan shuts off the Gas Supply.

  2. Pakistan couldnt possiby occupy 1000 miles of Indian territory, because of our military imbalance.

  3. If Pak shut down the Gas pipeline, they lose 2 billion in transit fees that may never resurface, we lose the confidence of investors, we lose the many jobs created.
    So no one wins,
    TO BE CONTINUED.:)

15

[QUOTE]
Originally posted by bdsurti: *
**Adnan Ahmed Ji*

*Im very excited about the prospects that are begining to avail themselves to us.
I want to make a few points.
1. This WILL definently improve relation between Pak and India. Atleast indireectly. Pakistan will be gaining a huge profit, and I dont know a single country that would waste the oppurtunity. This pipeline, with its many benefits will be a strong deterant aganst war. Pakistan will see the benefits and do all it can to prevent a war, India will see the same benefits, and make sure to not go to war. Now, not only will the US be involved, but so will the Iranis, and the thousands in India that rely on the Gas, plus the many that will find employment from it in Pakistan. *

  1. Sir, first the relations should improve as a harbinger for furthering business ventures. With the Pipe Line physically in Pakistan Iran and the USA can do ‘’Diddly Squat’’.

On Pakistan’s stopping the Gas flow will Iran and USA bomb Pakistan or invade it? Even the Indians will not consider such a scenario.

With due respect your figures – of Thousands - for the Indians who would depend on this Gas is not even worth laughing at. It will be over Five Hundred Million Users as this Gas would be supplied as far south in India as Goa or Mangalore.

Regarding War : Example : Pakistan occupies say 1,000 Miles of India Territory. India Retaliates. Pakistan shuts off the Gas Supply.

Win-Win situation for Pakistan. Lose-Lose situation for India.

2. Pakistan can shut down the pipeline, but it will never do that, just as India threatened to cut of our water, we wouldnt cut of their gas, although it would be easy for us to do so. As long as India doesnt openly go to war, which they wont.

  1. Adnan Ji : I do like to take a flutter at the bookies. I would put the Odds for Pakistan to shut the Gas at Five to One. This is a Conservative Figure.

Reason : Like the rest of the World, India is concerned at the Religious Extremist and Military Lobby and Leadership in Pakistan. Yes India does have its share of Religious Extremists but at least the Military is in Control. Thus Democracy has taken deep roots in India. It is not perfect but then what is.

As long as India does not go to War it is Fine. What happens if Pakistan goes to War?

Win-Win situation for Pakistan. Lose-Lose situation for India.

**3. Im a strong supporter of the Kashmir cause. And I am totally an enemy of India when it comes to Kkashmir, but we hae to realize something. Our Kashmir Policy is self defeating. If we continue this way, we will not gain a thing, if we force India to have a referandum, kashmiris will vote to be independant, if we manage to win it thru force, we will still have to give them a referandum and end up losing it. So regardless of what happens we will lose Kashmir. Infact we will end up losing way more then India. We will not only lose our pride, but also a highly stategic province, which is our only border with China.

Aand even if we were to get Kashmir, what could we offer them? What do we have that they would want to be a part of?
The best option that Pakistan has is to improve its relation with India, improve its economy, to minimize its role in Kashmir for the present, and make give itself a better postion in the region. With a better economy, we may be able to lure the Kashmiris back to our side with promise of a better life, we will have more international support, we will have economic muscle, which would equal military muscle, and we would have the good will of the Indians, who would be more sensative to Pakistans point. I think with all said and done, we may be able to secure the Valey at the very least.
Point being, a sacraficing our principled stance for the momment, and focus on our economy. I think a economicly strong Pakistan, is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have right now.
Thats why I think we should put aside our differences for the time being and allow the Pipeline to go thru.

Aand even if we were to get Kashmir, what could we offer them? What do we have that they would want to be a part of?
The best option that Pakistan has is to improve its relation with India, improve its economy, to minimize its role in Kashmir for the present, and make give itself a better postion in the region. With a better economy, we may be able to lure the Kashmiris back to our side with promise of a better life, we will have more international support, we will have economic muscle, which would equal military muscle, and we would have the good will of the Indians, who would be more sensative to Pakistans point. I think with all said and done, we may be able to secure the Valey at the very least.
Point being, a sacraficing our principled stance for the momment, and focus on our economy. I think a economicly strong Pakistan, is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have right now.
Thats why I think we should put aside our differences for the time being and allow the Pipeline to go thru.**

  1. How Pakistan and India work out the Kashmir Problem is for the two Countries’ Leadership to decide.

I find your statement ‘’I think an economically strong Pakistan is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have now’’ very disturbing.

You mean that India should do its best to keep Pakistan Economically weak?

Then India should NEVER, NEVER USE this Land Pipeline through Pakistan and have Pakistan benefit to the tune of USD Two Billion Per Year.

You have got it wrong my friend. Please refer to the Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee’s speech in this regard. He said something like ‘’It is in India’s Interest that Pakistan is Strong and Stable.’’ Nobody wants a weak Country as its neighbour.

Would you like to have a neighbour whose house is in a poor and dilapidated condition?

My Friend the answer to this problem is in Pakistan presenting India with Confidence Building Measures. Regretfully such an exercise is doomed to failure as long as Pakistan insists that it Maintain a Military Strength Parity with India

If the situation was reversed and India could make USD Two Billion Per Year (Actually you should think in terms of USD Fourteen Billion as India is well above Seven Times Pakistan in Economic Size) and then hold a finger to Pakistan’s Jugular, with the Indian Government being a Military Dominated one with heavy shades of Religious Extremism, what would the Democratically Elected non-Military dominated Government of Pakistan want to do? Would it allow India to hold its finger on Pakistan's Jugular.

This is the Problem that India is facing.

Have a nice day
[/QUOTE]

  1. India has from the begining never understood what Kashmir means to Pakistan. Its a matter of identity. The leadership will not be able to find a solution because neither side is discussing the problem. My solution, is in line with what your Prime minsiter wants, to put Kashmir on the back burners for the time being, because we are obviously not getting anywhere, elsections or no elections. My statement should be disturbing. India policy has always been to contain Pakistan. That is why the attacked in 1971 war, because East and West Pakistan were flanking India from both sides, a position that allowed as strong strategic position in favor of Pakistan. Indias goal has been to not see a competely dead Pakistan, but atleast a crippled Pakistan. One that can function, but cant fight back. India want the Kashmir issue to pecipitate atleast for the sake of containing Pakistan. India knows it can afford it. The war on terrorism was a god send in a way for Pakistan, suddenly we were in the center of attention, which is the last thing the Indians wanted, hence the whole build up along the border. Now India is again doing its utmost to contain Pakistan by labeling us as a "terrorist nation." Knowing Pakistan is still weakened, knowing the world would be sympathetic to its supposed plight. its "victimization"' at the hands of the dictator nation that "doesnt understand the value of democracy," India is trying to gain as much advantage as possible. Keep Pakistan down is India basic strategy. Pakistan on its part is playing into Indias hands. Our Kashmir policy only serves the Indians. We spend millions on defense that should be spent on education and social work. India turns up the pressure and we end up spending 2.5 million this year alone on defense spending. What Pakistan needs to do is ignore India, focus on its economy, on the development of democracy. An economicaly strong, democraticaly ruled Pakistan would be Indias worst nightmare. Regardless of what shape our Democracy takes, we will have a much stronger position. When investment picks up in Pakistan, more pressure will be put on India to not go to war. The logic here is simple, US investors and others invest in Pakistan, they will have lobbies in America that will pressure US govt to make India make more concesions. Also, ovt will be far less critical amd far more balanced in their approach toward Indo Pak relations. You PM might say nice things, but he is politician, and their audience is international. Reality is, Vagpayee wants a weak Pakistan. Its Indias choice whether they want the pipeline or not, they will eventually have to confront a stronger Pakistan then the one that they have now. Its up to you people what is more important. I for one think that its mutualy beneficial. Pakistan would never start a war, India would think twice before even mentioning the word, and everyone will win in the end. The Kashmir issue will be settled between two bussines partners (or god forbid, even thru friends?) rather then between two enemies.
16

[QUOTE]
Originally posted by bdsurti: *
**Adnan Ahmed Ji*

*Im very excited about the prospects that are begining to avail themselves to us.
I want to make a few points.
1. This WILL definently improve relation between Pak and India. Atleast indireectly. Pakistan will be gaining a huge profit, and I dont know a single country that would waste the oppurtunity. This pipeline, with its many benefits will be a strong deterant aganst war. Pakistan will see the benefits and do all it can to prevent a war, India will see the same benefits, and make sure to not go to war. Now, not only will the US be involved, but so will the Iranis, and the thousands in India that rely on the Gas, plus the many that will find employment from it in Pakistan. *

  1. Sir, first the relations should improve as a harbinger for furthering business ventures. With the Pipe Line physically in Pakistan Iran and the USA can do ‘’Diddly Squat’’.

On Pakistan’s stopping the Gas flow will Iran and USA bomb Pakistan or invade it? Even the Indians will not consider such a scenario.

With due respect your figures – of Thousands - for the Indians who would depend on this Gas is not even worth laughing at. It will be over Five Hundred Million Users as this Gas would be supplied as far south in India as Goa or Mangalore.

Regarding War : Example : Pakistan occupies say 1,000 Miles of India Territory. India Retaliates. Pakistan shuts off the Gas Supply.

Win-Win situation for Pakistan. Lose-Lose situation for India.

2. Pakistan can shut down the pipeline, but it will never do that, just as India threatened to cut of our water, we wouldnt cut of their gas, although it would be easy for us to do so. As long as India doesnt openly go to war, which they wont.

  1. Adnan Ji : I do like to take a flutter at the bookies. I would put the Odds for Pakistan to shut the Gas at Five to One. This is a Conservative Figure.

Reason : Like the rest of the World, India is concerned at the Religious Extremist and Military Lobby and Leadership in Pakistan. Yes India does have its share of Religious Extremists but at least the Military is in Control. Thus Democracy has taken deep roots in India. It is not perfect but then what is.

As long as India does not go to War it is Fine. What happens if Pakistan goes to War?

Win-Win situation for Pakistan. Lose-Lose situation for India.

**3. Im a strong supporter of the Kashmir cause. And I am totally an enemy of India when it comes to Kkashmir, but we hae to realize something. Our Kashmir Policy is self defeating. If we continue this way, we will not gain a thing, if we force India to have a referandum, kashmiris will vote to be independant, if we manage to win it thru force, we will still have to give them a referandum and end up losing it. So regardless of what happens we will lose Kashmir. Infact we will end up losing way more then India. We will not only lose our pride, but also a highly stategic province, which is our only border with China.

Aand even if we were to get Kashmir, what could we offer them? What do we have that they would want to be a part of?
The best option that Pakistan has is to improve its relation with India, improve its economy, to minimize its role in Kashmir for the present, and make give itself a better postion in the region. With a better economy, we may be able to lure the Kashmiris back to our side with promise of a better life, we will have more international support, we will have economic muscle, which would equal military muscle, and we would have the good will of the Indians, who would be more sensative to Pakistans point. I think with all said and done, we may be able to secure the Valey at the very least.
Point being, a sacraficing our principled stance for the momment, and focus on our economy. I think a economicly strong Pakistan, is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have right now.
Thats why I think we should put aside our differences for the time being and allow the Pipeline to go thru.

Aand even if we were to get Kashmir, what could we offer them? What do we have that they would want to be a part of?
The best option that Pakistan has is to improve its relation with India, improve its economy, to minimize its role in Kashmir for the present, and make give itself a better postion in the region. With a better economy, we may be able to lure the Kashmiris back to our side with promise of a better life, we will have more international support, we will have economic muscle, which would equal military muscle, and we would have the good will of the Indians, who would be more sensative to Pakistans point. I think with all said and done, we may be able to secure the Valey at the very least.
Point being, a sacraficing our principled stance for the momment, and focus on our economy. I think a economicly strong Pakistan, is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have right now.
Thats why I think we should put aside our differences for the time being and allow the Pipeline to go thru.**

  1. How Pakistan and India work out the Kashmir Problem is for the two Countries’ Leadership to decide.

I find your statement ‘’I think an economically strong Pakistan is far more dangerous and cunning then the one we have now’’ very disturbing.

You mean that India should do its best to keep Pakistan Economically weak?

Then India should NEVER, NEVER USE this Land Pipeline through Pakistan and have Pakistan benefit to the tune of USD Two Billion Per Year.

You have got it wrong my friend. Please refer to the Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee’s speech in this regard. He said something like ‘’It is in India’s Interest that Pakistan is Strong and Stable.’’ Nobody wants a weak Country as its neighbour.

Would you like to have a neighbour whose house is in a poor and dilapidated condition?

My Friend the answer to this problem is in Pakistan presenting India with Confidence Building Measures. Regretfully such an exercise is doomed to failure as long as Pakistan insists that it Maintain a Military Strength Parity with India

If the situation was reversed and India could make USD Two Billion Per Year (Actually you should think in terms of USD Fourteen Billion as India is well above Seven Times Pakistan in Economic Size) and then hold a finger to Pakistan’s Jugular, with the Indian Government being a Military Dominated one with heavy shades of Religious Extremism, what would the Democratically Elected non-Military dominated Government of Pakistan want to do? Would it allow India to hold its finger on Pakistan's Jugular.

This is the Problem that India is facing.

Have a nice day
[/QUOTE]

No both are holding the other by the Jugular. Remember when India threatened to cut of Pakistans water supply? I knwo they cant do it, but that was a threat, but they didnt thankfully.
Pakistan cant assure anything to India, except to say that they wont. Rember the Indus treaty? How many wars has that survived? Despite Indias threats, its never been done, and frankly, I dont think they would dare.
As for our miltiary strength parity, do you expect us to let you treeat us though we were dirt under your feet? Every time something happens in your country and we are threatened by war, you want us to start groveling and begging for your mercy? Perhaps India should be the one to try and change its policy of regional dominance. Should I remind you that it was India that firct went Nuclear? Did it ever occur to you that we, you humble neighbors, do not want to live under your imposed "Pax Hindustania"?
India will have to decide whats more important. We can make guarnatees all we want. Fact is, India has nothing to fear of us, we would never start any war, nor would we want to lose our cash plant. Indias best option is to go thru Pakistan. Iit will have to realize this and come to terms with it. I for one think this will be move towards lasting peace.

17

One more thing…This is a quote…
“And Regarding War : Example : Pakistan occupies say 1,000 Miles of India Territory.
India Retaliates. Pakistan shuts off the Gas Supply.”
1000 MILES OF INDIA TERRITORY, no offense but are you mad!!!
Do you know how much territory that is?
From our farthest border, that would mean we take all the territory up to Patna, which is about 200 miles from the Bagladesh border..
Thats covering about 80 percent of Indian territory!!!
Considering you outnumber us 10 to 1, I think thats some what of an over exageration. We would be lucky to manage taking Kashmir by force. And you said my figures were laughable!!!:hehe:

And also, why in the hell would we want your territory? We created Pakistan just so we could get away from you, why would want to take over territory we couldnt wait to get away from?
So no, Pakistan is not stupid enough to go to all out war and invade India proper. However, India does have a better chance of Invading and occupying a large portion of Pak land. So its far more likely that India would attack, (perhaps it was this military imbalance that led to the threats of war recently? Just my humble oppinion?)

So as long as you people dont attack us, what fear do you have?

18

**Adnan Ahmed Ji,

First Post 10-05-2002 : 1150 PM**

With due respect the people served by this Natural Gas Facility will be Five Hundred Millions. A figure Thousands or even Millions is laughable.

With due apologies I meant 1,000 Square miles.

Once the flow of Gas is stopped, Indian Industrial Users come to a DEAD STOP. The Domestic Users are put into great difficulty but they can always go out and buy kerosene stoves.

So what in the name of sanity can India do if the Pakistani Government stops the Gas Flow for Seven Days at a Time?

Please give this your serious thought. Pakistan will not stop. Fine but what if it does? You will agree with me that there is always the Threat of a Military-Religious Extremist Group taking over Pakistan. In India at least there is no chance of the Military coming into Power. I do do hope that no Religious Extremists take over in India.

An overwhelming Majority of the Indians do not want India to ever Invade or hurt Pakistan in any way.

An overwhelming Majority of Pakistanis (a) are totally convinced of India’s Malicious Intentions (b) are totally convinced that Pakistan should invade India and occupy India. You even have people on this forum advising us of the Armies, Including Pakistani, under the Banner of Islam pouring over the Indian Borders and remind the Indians of ‘’the good old days’’

My friend, think coolly. Think from the Indian Strategists’ View Point.

Adnan Ji : No jokes. These stoppages may be due to sabotage beyond the control of the Pakistani Government.

An example is the Kashmir Border. All the Indian and Pakistani Force gathered on the Border cannot stop the Infiltration from the Pakistani side into the Indian Side.

So the Threat of Stoppage, whether due to Pakistani Official Act or Sabotage, is very very real.

I can assure you that if India and Pakistan were to go to War first the USA and others will watch the Two destroy a great part of their Arsenal. Then they will stop the War and re-supply both.

If the USA and others did not want a War between the two then a TOTAL ARMS EMBARGO would be imposed on the two. They will keep arming the Two. Our two countries buy about USD Five to Seven or even Ten Billions of Arms every Year. USA and the rest will not give up this Market.

Second Post 10-06-2002 01:42 AM

Kashmir Issue : Let the governments decide. You can fight as much you like with me but we cannot resolve the Issue.

Your statement : An economicaly strong, democraticaly ruled Pakistan would be Indias worst nightmare. : In that case India should never use the Pipe Lines through Pakistan so that at least a sum of USD Two Billion is kept away from causing India its ‘’worst nightmare’’

Respectfully I beg to differ. It is the other way around as if I agree to your view then I am defeated in my wish for mutual benefit by having the Pipe Line go through Pakistan. If I agree with your view then India must go for a Deep Sea Pipe Line.

Your reiterating ‘’ My statement should be disturbing ‘’ is a total encouragement to those who do not wish India to a have the Pipe Line go through Pakistan.

As such please make up your mind. If what you state and reiterate is the final outcome then the Idea of a Pipe Line through Pakistan ends here.

There is no need to discuss further.

Third Post 10-06-2002 02:16 AM

There is an VAST DIFFERENCE between River Waters and a Pipe Line. To stop River Waters India will have to build More Dams. Once the construction is started Pakistan can go to the UN or WCJ. So it will take Years for Pakistan to feel the effect before which Pakistan will have received a Judgement in its Favour. Stoppages of say Seven Days will not Bring Pakistan to a Halt.

The flow in the Pipe Line is either stopped by shutting off the valve or blowing up the Pipeline. THE EFFECT IS IMMIDIATE AND YOU HAVE FIVE HUNDRED MILLIONS SUFFERERS.

As far as Defence Parity is concerned let India get some sort out a Defence Parity with China and Spend Half of China’s Defence Budget of USD 60 Billion. In this case India will spend USD 30 Billion.

Pakistan also maintains similar Parity with India and in turn spends USD 15 Billion.

Fourth Post 10-06-2002 02:33 AM

Adnan Ji : I have already apologised for my omission of the words ‘’SQUARE MILES’’. You will agree that occupying 1,000 SQUARE MILES is no big deal.

You have been mentioning about India giving concessions. One of the biggest thorn in India-Pakistan relations today is India granting Pakistani goods the MFN Status for possibly over FIVE YEARS.

Pakistan in its wisdom HAS NOT RECIPROCATED.

Finally, Adnan Ji, I would want peace between India and Pakistan for this I think it is in India’s interest that Pakistan be Economically Strong and Stable.

However you are of the opinion that a strong and stable Pakistan is India’s Worst Nightmare then I suggest we stop this discussion here.

For your kind information here is the link to the Deep Sea Oman-India Pipe Line. You will note from the Image below that the Route is Far and Away not only from Pakistan’s Internationally accepted Maritime Limits but also from Pakistan’s ECONOMIC ZONE.

http://www.intec-hou.com/expertise/pipelines/resumes/resume.asp?r_id=68

I would also draw your attention to the Home Page : www.intec-hou.com and this will give you more information.

Other Sites to check are www.offshore-technology.com and www.ocean-resources.com

I do do hope that you can change your views of ‘’a Strong and Stable Pakistan being India’s worst nightmare’’. I also hope that you will agree that Pakistan should offer India some Confidence Building Measures so that this Land Pipe Line through Pakistan can go ahead.

This Land Pipe Line will mainly benefit Pakistan in Yearly Earnings of USD 2 Billion. The cost of building this Pipeline is about USD 4 Billion.

So in some ways the Deep Sea Pipe Line makes Sense i.e. USD 12 Billion Initial Cost and then a negligible amount in Maintenance. The Deep Sea Pipe Line will pay for itself in about FIVE YEARS.

Now you will appreciate I am not a PESSIMIST. I am an OPTOMIST.

So Adnan Ji think coolly as in this situation we need cool heads.

Have a nice day

** Please read the new policy on posting images posted in the Annoucements tab at the top of the thread list.**

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  1. Our problem stems from mutual distrust. I for one dont know any Pakistanis tht want to "take over" India. Or to "pay them back." Many Pakistanis do care about how the Kashmir issue is resolved, but none that actualy want to go out and take over India. You obviously dont know much about Pakistanis or Pakistan, which is a shame. My statement about India is based on more then just "what some Indian said on gupshup." The fact that your country invaded and anexed east Pakistan, the fact that your country continues it build up along our border, the fact that it was your country that test the nuke bomb first, the fact that its always convenient to have you military test close to our border. What does that tell us? Even recently it was you people who tested the missile. India is constantly trying to intimidate us, in an effort towqrds "containment."

  2. In our modern day world, when economic prosperity begins to develop, peace follows. Notice that it was an economically backwards Germany which started WW2. If our region prospers economically, then there will be no threat of war, and militants.

  3. My point is that mistrust on both sides in unwarranted. The pipline however will be a way towards motual trust. You see this completely differently somehow. Whilst we see this as way towards peace, you see this as another threat. If this is your mid set, then I dont think there is any reason to continue this converstation. If e cant trust each other enough to discuss mutually economic beneficial projects then what hope is there for peace?

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Mr. Mursalin - Moderator

My apologies for the posting of Images on the Thread. I thought that it would be handy to those who are interested.

Rules are made to be followed and on this Forum I assure you that I will follow your Rules

Have a Nice Day indeed.