Palestine/Israel - leaders and peace plans (split thread)

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
1

The way I see it is that Palestinians, just like any other society in the world, are not a conformist and homogenous bunch of peoeple. There are groups within them and there are tonnes of politics going in there.

They do have a Palestinian Authority and then they have groups like Hamas and Hizbollah.

The way to go, IMO, is to invite the Palestinian Authority to the negotiating table, and then give them resources and time to tackle with the violent elements in their own society. Right now, US/Israel do not give them any resources or time to deal with the problem and then publicly castrate them for lack of action and order Israeli tanks to bulldoze the whole process. There is a complete lack of statesmenship displayed by Lekud and esp. Sharon. You can’t really solve a decades old terrirtorial dispute by strong-arming an individual.

Palestinians have leaders, but those leaders are powerless with lack of time and incentive given to them. Sharon has a personality conflict with Arafat and that is the sole reason why the process has stalled in the last few years. Prior to that, Arafat had always said “yes” to peace negotiations even when some of his own people (and muslims) started calling him a traitor to the cause.

If Israel/US do not want to deal with Arafat, that is fine… but when they look at anyone who is loyal to Arafat with suspicion (the new PM, e.g.), then the process is a non-starter.

In the current situation, even if we make Ohioguy as the Prime Minister of Palestinian Authority, he can’t do jack. You can’t stop terrorism through a badly equipped and demoralized police force. Thats essentially what Israel/US expect from Palestinian government. Its hard enough to stop terrorism with the best trained armies, so its clear that there is a big expectation gap that needs to be fixed.

2

^Faisal:
I think you make some excellent points based upon the present but that fail to recognize the immediate past.

** "You can't stop terrorism through a badly equipped and demoralized police force. Thats essentially what Israel/US expect from Palestinian government. Its hard enough to stop terrorism with the best trained armies, so its clear that there is a big expectation gap that needs to be fixed. **

The PA police force was not so badly equipped and demoralized before the current Intifada. Yet, they made no effort to purge the more militant Palestinians from their midst. Everyone, including the Israelis, knew who the Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Martyrs Brigade leaders were, where they ate, where they slept and where they lived. The PA did not have the will (and/or support??? and/or balls???) to get rid of them.

I agree that not every terrorist event could be stopped no matter what the PA did. But doing nothing is not the answer. Welcoming and allowing the terrorists to set up shop, live comfortably, make their bombs, and recruit their bombers falls far short of what should be expected.

** "Right now, US/Israel do not give them any resources or time to deal with the problem and then publicly castrate them for lack of action and order Israeli tanks to bulldoze the whole process." **

Again. Simply not true prior to the present Intifada. Immediately prior to the Millenium celebration and for a good many years before that, there was relative stability. I was in the PA controlled territories at the time. Infrastructure improvements were occuring, a Palestinian economy was taking root, passage between Israel and PA controlled territories was not too disruptive or difficult and the Palestinian people I met were not living in despair. Resources from private businesses and western governments were making their way to the PA (quite a lot simply disappeared down Arafat's rathole). Then was a good time for the PA to deal with the problem.

So now, three plus years of hell has demoralized and destroyed the Palestinians. The task of controlling the militants is that much harder and the PA lacks the resources and time to do it. But giving the presently constructed PA resources and time doesn't seem to be the answer in light of its previous failure to use resources and time wisely.

I guess the Palestinians supporting the Intifada can take some solace that they have demoralized and soundly hurt much of the Israeli population and its economy too. There are no winners here. Success is only measured in inflicting loss on the opponent. As long as taking an arm from Israel is viewed as a win even though it cost the Palestinians both arms and one leg, there is no hope.

3

myvoice...

Economic reconstruction and prosperity can not ba short-sighted goal. The achievements you describe were a result of hope. Hope that the peace process will continue. It was that hope which kept groups like Hamas and Hizbollah in check, cz there is no broad-based support for violence and terrorism if people believe they are on the path of independence and administrative autonomy. The whole thing broke down when during their final fateful round of negotiations, the Israelis failed to budge from their position of only allowing disjointed and separate pieces of land to be be governed by the Palestinian Authority. I think, it was the time of Bill Clinton's presidency. Once the negotiations collapsed, the path to peace became muddy and the groups like Hamas and Hizbollah capitalized on the regaining feeling of despair.

After that, no amount of Israeli army or Palestinian police force can stop terrorism. Simply because the people of Palestine lost their hopes in the peace process. Arafat or the PM of PA can not give them this hope. And without a working peace process, where the two sides are willing to negotiate in good faith, there is no way anyone can stop terrorism. Unfortunately Sharon is going in the opposite direction. Its a shame that Rabin was killed. He was on the right path to solve the problem. He knew he had to give Palestinians some hope.

4

Faisal:
Again, your post includes much sense.

But hope of achieving an independent Palestine does not keep Hamas and its ilk in check. An independent Palestine side by side with an Israel runs counter to their core principles. Hamas and friends would derail that possibility.

If you search for prior threads, you will find my comments regarding a the last negotiations between the parties at Taba. It is not fair to lay the blame for failure solely at Israel's doorstep. Both parties were to blame for not compromising on relatively narrow disagreements.

5

Obviously its a matter of judgement as to what is a "narrow" disagreement, and who is to blame for it. Israel will have to take a larger portion of the blame for the current impasse, simply because it is/was in a position of power and those with power have to show larger flexibility in negotiations.

You can never completely neutralize groups like Hamas and Hizbollah. Its a physical impossibility. Even the most sophisticated police forces in the US can't completely eliminate anti-government groups, let alone a badly armed and completely demoralized and underfunded police force.

So, the best way to deal with the situation is to bring as many Palestinians as possible into the main stream, give them hope for their future, and implore them to ditch the violent sermons of Hamas and Hizb. They will come around as it is a natural human nature. No one really wants to die. You have to understand this. Does it mean there will be no groups deriding the existence of Israel? No. There will always be such groups. But the absence of any peace process or a will on the part of Israelis to treat Palestinians as human beings plays right into the hands of violent groups and thus you see intifada continuing. They have a limitless supply of people who see no hope for their future.

6

Both parties have plenty of blood on their hands.

Earlier it was stated that the Saudi's put forward a peace plan. What happened to it? For any peace plan to work it must be pursued for a number of years, not just floated and dropped.

Myvoice is right, the Palestinian territories were experiencing reasonable progress before the intifada. If you guys worried half as much about Arafats' leadership failures as calling for Rumsfelds resignation, we all might be better off. No one dares say a bad word about Arafat and his leadership, as this is considered to be Anti-Muslim Politically Incorrect speech. Rather than look inward at faults as you vocally insist on for Western governments, Arafat gets a free pass. It is far easier to blame Israel than to break ranks.

If Arafat was mayor of your home town, would he be reelected?

7

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Matsui: *
The blood thirsty beast label applies to both sides. SOmehow you guys are always absolving palestinians of any blame to the circle of violence.

[/QUOTE]

Exactly right.

Do a reasonable search on GS and you will find Matsui, OhioGuy, Seminole, UTD, myvoice and many others criticisizing and condemning both sides. You will find constructive alernatives offered. You will find expressions of solidarity for the plight of the Palestinians. You will find ideas on how the Palestinians could capture the sympathies and support of the American people quite easily and rally them to redirect the aid provided to Israel to help build a viable Palestinian economy. You will find a balanced view of the historical events since 1947 that have lead us to this point in time. You will find blame directed at both sides. You will find the viewpoint that much of the Palestinian plight today is the product of the Palestinians being used, abused, lied to and manipulated by their Arab brothers and sisters who still to this day "rah rah" their "noble" violent struggle against the Israelis and cheer them on while their future homeland is reduced to rubble and their children die in the streets [yet not one Arab brother or sister does anything tangible and constructive to help them win that struggle].

Not one productive idea has ever been advanced by those who attribute all the blame to Israel and absolve the Palestinians of any and all sins and omissions.

8

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by myvoice: *
Not one productive idea has ever been advanced by those who attribute all the blame to Israel and absolve the Palestinians of any and all sins and omissions.
[/QUOTE]
First of all no one absolves all the blame from anyone (may be some do, but thats not really the point). However, Israel definitely takes the larger (much larger) proportion of the blame simply because the statistics of death and destruction all point to Israel again and again.

Anyway, you say, no productive idea has ever been advanced... why do you forget the Saudi peace proposal that was pretty reasonable.

One of the most just solution is to give the West Bank and Gaza to Palestinians and make Jerusalem an international city (much like Vatican) with Jews, Christians and Muslims all part of city government. Palestinians won't have right of return but they will be compensated. Israel will guarantee territorial sovereignty of Palestinian state and in turn Egypt, Syria, Jordan and KSA will recognize Israel and guarantee its territorial rights. Fund Palestinian administration to develop the areas under their control and give them two years to neutrilize outfits like Hamas and Hizbollah.

Every one goes home happy (except may be Hamas and Hizb) but really there you have a solution right there.

9

that us an interesting point OG. Would Arafat be reelected. I have seen gov't come and go,simply based on the Israeli public sense of security and achievement of the said gov't. Yet, all this cry for hooplah and freedom cries once again hold two different sets of standards. No one has said, Arafat has done a pitiful job...he needs to go. In fact, the longer arafat is there the less chance palestinians have for freedom. I see no difference between him and any other autocrat. Blame the outside parties while you refuse to take the necessary steps at home to achieve real peace. Hypocrits....

10

Great plan, Faisal. How about becoming the new peace envoy? The Bush administration is in great need for that position. The one problem I see is what beyond "give them two years to neutralize outfits like Hamas and Hizbollah" will address the security concerns of Israelis? These groups would in all likliehood re-double their efforts to strike at Israel. I don't think it's realistic that the Israelis would be patient with continued suicide bombings. Unless in this plan you think there would be so much hope and love-ins that regular Palestinians would not support and turn in the people continuing the violence.

11

Israel has to focus on the long term, instead of constantly being bogged down by the short-term, and that is the single biggest failing of Sharon government. Peace process and mass-movements work on momentum. Give it a shove, get it started in the righ direction with right intentions and you will see a mass movement that will reject terrorism and embrace development.

But, make no mistake... outfits like Hamas and Hizb will constantly try to derail the process. Theri whole raison d'etre is based on chants of finishing off Israel. If there is peace, these outfits have to pack up shop. The only way forward is to stay the course and keep your nerves. These groups WILL become neutralized. They will not disappear completely but effort should be made to make them irrelevant. At some point in future, they may be inclined to join the mainstream and be part of the political process. But thats not going to happen in the short term.

12

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Faisal: *
First of all no one absolves all the blame from anyone (may be some do, but thats not really the point).

[/QUOTE]

Some do. Lots do. And that is part of the point. The conflict is as it is because BOTH sides are wrong and too many people on both sides think all the blame is on the other side. With that attitude, you can't have a solution.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Faisal: *
However, Israel definitely takes the larger (much larger) proportion of the blame simply because the statistics of death and destruction all point to Israel again and again.

[/QUOTE]

That's ridiculous. You seem to be saying that the side that kills more people is the side that is most to blame. There's a 50+ year history of blame. You forget this started with the Palestinians having a homeland set aside for them in 1947 that is far larger than anything they'll get today. It wasn't Israel that rejected it. The Palestinians had it rejected for them by their brothers and sisters.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Faisal: *
One of the most just solution is to give the West Bank and Gaza to Palestinians and make Jerusalem an international city (much like Vatican) with Jews, Christians and Muslims all part of city government. Palestinians won't have right of return but they will be compensated. Israel will guarantee territorial sovereignty of Palestinian state and in turn Egypt, Syria, Jordan and KSA will recognize Israel and guarantee its territorial rights. Fund Palestinian administration to develop the areas under their control and give them two years to neutrilize outfits like Hamas and Hizbollah.

Every one goes home happy (except may be Hamas and Hizb) but really there you have a solution right there.
[/QUOTE]

Hey. Sounds good to me. You get Arafat and the Palestinians to agree to have Jerusalem an international city and give up the right of return and I'll get Sharon and the Israelis to approve. :)

A more practical solution is to go back a couple years to where the Israelis and Palestinians got deadlocked at Taba. There was broad agreement on a whole host of issues. The dispute over the right of return had been reduced to disagreement over less than 100,000 potential returnees. The international community could force them back to the table to resolve the leftover issues. If they couldn't resolve them, the rest of the world just splits the areas of disagreement down the middle and tells both parties to live with it. I proposed this almost 2 years ago.

13

myvoice, if we keep on harping about 50 year old history to needle the other party, frankly speaking there can be no solution. What we are trying to come up with is whats right and whats just and what makes sense. Who has the most blame is not really the point, but more of an opinion that is besides the point.

As long as Israel/US get stuck on nitty gritty issues this train ain't moving. What I hear again and again is "Oh Arafat is corrupt", or "Oh Arafat is unreliable", or "Oh the Palestinian police is not curbing terrorism" or "Sheesh! they bombed a pizza parlor 3 years ago" or "Gosh! these terrorists killed some grand mothers, bad palestinians!" etc etc etc. On the other side we hear similar rants against jews and IDF and Sharon.

Offer something concrete (no, I don't mean the wall). Come out with a plan. Start with the end in mind. Think win-win. There are plenty of leaders in the Palestinian side who can take the ball and run with it. But as long as the peace process is held hostage to outfits like Hamas and Hizb and the length of a peace initiative is limited till the next bomb attack, you can pretty much kiss the chances of any solution good bye.

And yea, why not. Palestinians, at this point, have nothing. If Jerusalem is declared an international city, they have gained something. Its actually Israel that will fiercely oppose it, not the Palestinians.

Israel keeps getting bogged down by issues like which settlements to give up and which buildings to bulldoze before going back. They really don't seem serious about this whole thing, at all. May be once Sharon gets booted out, the train can be put back on track.

14

Faisal, Israel has seen many mor eleadership changes than the palestinians without affecting policy all that much. You suggested that there are many palestinians that can negotiate on behalf of the people? Who????? Also, how do you circumvent the post held by Arafat?

15

Faisal:
** "Who has the most blame is not really the point, but more of an opinion that is besides the point." **

Exactly right. You either just forget/forgive everything that has happened for 50 years OR accept both sides are to blame and move on. Nothing constructive comes out of who is MOST to blame or pointing the finger at who did what when.

*"There are plenty of leaders in the Palestinian side who can take the ball and run with it. " *

Call me Matsui's echo. WHO????

** "Offer something concrete (no, I don't mean the wall). Come out with a plan. Start with the end in mind. Think win-win. ... Israel keeps getting bogged down by issues like which settlements to give up and which buildings to bulldoze before going back. They really don't seem serious about this whole thing, at all. May be once Sharon gets booted out, the train can be put back on track." **

Again. Matsui is right. Israel has had lots of leaders. Sharon is a product of the failure of prior negotiations and the Intifada. A concrete plan (sans wall) was in play at Taba. Barak was toppled because he couldn't get a deal.

The best plan is one agreed upon by the parties. Therefore, the best solution, IMO, is start with the agreement that was closest to resolving all outstanding issues (i.e. Taba). As to right of return, if Barak agreed to 20,000 returnees at Taba and Arafat wanted 100,000 returnees at Taba, force them to compromise. If they don't agree to a number, let the international community split the difference and dictate that there will be 60,000 returnees. If Israel wanted to retain 15 settlements in the West Bank and offered 10,000 acres of Israel in return and Arafat was willing to accept 5 settlements and wanted 20,000 acres of Israel in return, make them compromise. If they can't agree, let the international community split the difference and dictate that there will be 10 settlements and Israel will give up 15,000 acres in return for them.

16

myvoice/Matsui

If you seriously want to isolate Arafat (I really don't see why such a hooplah, anyway, cz Palestinians are also asked to negotiate with a "corrupt" and "unreliable" Sharon - and surprise surprise both Sharon and Arafat are "elected" by their people :-P) then there is the Palestinian Prime Minister, Ahmed Qureia. There are other high profile negotiators including Saeb Erekat and many others. Infact it is these people who actually negotiate the nitty gritty. People like Sharon, Bush and Arafat are more for public relations, making statements in the press and shaking hands.

If progress at Taba is a good starting point, start from there. As long as both sides have a clear understanding as to what the end will look like, they will have more of an incentive to reach agreement on issues like 5 settlements or 3 settlements. My belief is that as long as Palestinians see they have jobs and economic opportunities in their own land (i.e. WB and Gaza) they will be more likely to stop insisting on right of return.

17

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Faisal: *
My belief is that as long as Palestinians see they have jobs and economic opportunities in their own land (i.e. WB and Gaza) they will be more likely to stop insisting on right of return.
[/QUOTE]

I wish you were right. As I said earlier, there was job growth and economic opportunity 4 plus years ago in a land that was under PA control and was not subject to repeated IDF incursion. An agreement formalizing their homeland was pretty d*mn close. The right of return was one of the biggest issues preventing the final agreement (and as I said earlier, the actual numbers set out by the parties was not THAT significantly different).

Now, I think we are at least a decade from getting back to where we were 4 or 5 years ago.

18

If by any chance, Sharon is assassinated, Arafat drops dead and Lekud lose power to Labor... what do you think will happen to the peace process?

19

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Faisal: *
If by any chance, Sharon is assassinated, Arafat drops dead and Lekud lose power to Labor... what do you think will happen to the peace process?
[/QUOTE]

I don't think assassination of Sharon would be a good thing, might very well strengthen the far right. Labor needs a strong voice that can unite them.

20

Unless he is assassinated by the far right. Its not important who does it, point is, if Sharon is removed from the scene alongwith Arafat, and Israeli people put their faith behind Labor party, what will be the impact on the peace process? I think it will move a lot faster.