Only 72 hours after which it may use the nuclear option. That’s scary !!!
http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/DE21Df03.html
War scenario beyond conventional wisdom
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - In the wake of another deadly attack on an Indian army camp in Indian-administered Kashmir on the weekend, the Indian government is being pushed against a wall by militant groups, so much so that some form of military response seems an inevitability despite international pressure for restraint.
Pakistani diplomatic sources indicate that Islamabad has invoked all diplomatic channels to prevent war - despite the expulsion of its high commissioner from New Delhi - but if push comes to shove, it will obviously have no alternative but to respond.
On the weekend suspected Pakistani-based Islamic militants attacked an army camp in Indian-controlled Kashmir, killing four soldiers and wounding 12 others. This was only five days after a major assault on another army camp in Kashmir that left more than 30 civilians dead and which triggered a new crisis in relations between India and Pakistan. India accuses Pakistani-backed militants of carrying out the attack.
The two countries have massed hundreds of thousands of troops along the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir, which in recent days has seen renewed heavy shelling.Pakistani Information Minister Nisar Memon said Islamabad had no plans to retaliate on the diplomatic front, and hoped that the current crisis could be resolved peacefully.
Military observers say that more than 150 places have been identified where Pakistani and Indian forces have exchange fire along their border, with especially heavy mobility and exchanges around Kartah, Rajori, Aknore, Sialkot, Gujarat, Narowal and Jhamp Choriah.
Asia Times Online reported recently (Kashmir just the beginning in jihadis’ vision of war) that a third force was operating in the Kashmir conflict - dissidents within the jihadi groups who have become disenchanted with the policies of their own groups and those of the government. Their goal is to provoke friction between India and Pakistan to such a point that war becomes inevitable.
On paper, such as conflict would be no contest, as in straight numerical terms of population, economic might, military manpower and equipment it is almost meaningless to speak of an India-Pakistan balance. “Imbalance” would be a more appropriate term since India dominates in every respect.
India has a standing army of 1.1 million, with defense spending of US$13.94 billion, 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with Pakistan’s standing army of 550,000 and defense spending of $3.3 billion, or 4.2 percent of GDP. The Indian air force is the world’s fourth largest, best equipped and professionally trained. The overall difference between the Indian and Pakistani air forces is a ratio of about 2:1 in terms of planes - India has about 800, of which 715 are combat-ready, to Pakistan’s present strength of 450.
Pakistani strategic sources believe that Pakistan has only 72 hours worth of fighting strength, after which it would have to consider the nuclear option. These sources add that Pakistan has mounted its Shaheen missiles (which can carry nuclear warheads with a range of 750 kilometers) at various positions and will “make optimum use of them in the case of war”.
Neither country has a stable nuclear-deterrent equation, nor transparency in their nuclear doctrines, that is, under what circumstances they might use such weapons to deter “unacceptable” damage, or even what “unacceptable” is. India has not yet officially spelled out its doctrine, beyond saying it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Pakistan refuses no-first-use. It has indicated that it will “defend” itself in a nuclear way in the event of a conventional attack overrunning it.
The two states have enough fissile material for 25 (Pakistan) to 100 (India) nuclear bombs/warheads, each of which can kill up to 800,000 civilians at one go in a large city. Both are creating nuclear command structures. Both are developing new missiles. India test-flew a new Agni medium-range missile in January. Pakistan is expected to conduct a test-flight within the coming weeks.
In simple arithmetic, therefore, India is far ahead of Pakistan. However, the Islamic militant groups, and especially those who have ruled out calls for restraint from President General Pervez Musharraf, pose the greatest threat to India. These militant groups are fully integrated into Indian society and have the potential to wage a proxy war all over India should the countries actually begin a war.
About two dozen armed militant groups claim to operate inside Indian-administered Kashmir. Apart from a couple of prominent groups, most of them are part of an alliance known as the United Jihad Council. These groups are separate from those affiliated to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, such as Dawood Ibrahim, which do not operate under a specific group name.