Economy: GDP consists of 3 sector of economy.
1: Agriculture
2: Industry
3: Services
Most important sector of Pakistan economy is industrial sector divided into four sub-sectors.
A: Manufacturing
B: Construction
C: Mining and Quarrying
D: Electricity and Gas distribution
Manufacturing is most important for any country as it generates real wealth. It is backbone of industrial economy, and it supports all other sectors of economy. Data given by Pakistan ‘Bureau of statistics’ (and most world economy data) recognises that and that is why manufacturing sector is quoted by countries separately. So, when looking at government performance, one should look at GDP growth as well as growth in manufacturing.
Since Pakistan has large agriculture based economy, for Pakistan agricultural growth is also important, but obviously, if Pakistan has to become industrialised and rich, it has to have fast growth in manufacturing sector.
Here is economic performance of different governments … calculated using data provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics at:
[TABLE=“width: 671”]
Person in power
Financial
Year
july - June
Average real GDP growth rate (per year)
Average growth rate ‘per yr’ in manufacturing
Performance:
GDP and Manufacturing
1951-58
3.24 %
8.87 %
Slightly below Ayub
Ayub
Oct 58 - Mar 69
1958-69
5.81 %
8.51 %
After Mush and Zia.
Yahya
Mar 69 - Dec 71
1969-71
5.42 %
8.86 %
Similar to Ayub Khan
Bhutto
Dec 71 - July 77
1971-77
4.41 %
3.3 %
Zia
July 77 - Aug 88
1977-88
6.6 %
(Highest ever)
9.16 %
(second highest)
As good as Musharraf
BB - 1
Dec 88 - Aug 90
1988-90
4.7 %
4.84 %
NS - 1
Nov 90 - July 93
1990-93
5.01 %
5.68 %
BB-2
Oct 93 - Nov 96
1993-96
5.34 %
3.6 %
NS-2
Feb 96 - Oct 99
1996-99
3.12 %
3.61 %
Second worst
(Worst of its time)
Musharraf
Oct 99 - Feb 08
1999-08
5.81 %
(second highest)
9.4 %
(Highest ever)
2004-05: 15.51 % (highest)
2003-04: 14.01 %(second)
Best performance along with Zia … followed by Ayub Khan.
It would have been best ever if 4 months of PPP Govt (2008) is excluded.
Zardari
Feb 08 - May 13
2008-13
2.9 %
1.03 %
Worst performance ever
followed by NS -2
Let see what NS-3 performance would be. It is too early to say much. Time would tell.
Re: Pakistan average economic growth under different head of states:
^^^ Aids are mostly in the form subsidised loan, plus some grants. Source could be donor countries or financial institutions. Most world financial institutions give subsidised loan to Pakistan with American nod, especially IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Islamic Development Bank.
When IMF gives subsidised loan to a country, it also dictates terms. Pakistan went under IMF program in early 70 during Bhutto era, when Bhutto went to IMF and borrowed. Since then Pakistan is always under one or another IMF program until Musharraf government paid off IMF and came out of their grip in 2004.
Unfortunately, Zardari government took Pakistan to IMF again in 2009, getting around 8 billion dollar aids as subsidised loan. Pakistan biggest aids donor was and is USA. America stopped all sorts of aid to Pakistan after military takeover in 1999. Anyhow, aid started after 9/11. Along with aid, Pakistan also billed USA and got money from CSF. Even though Pakistan consider CSF as expenses and not aid, USA considers CSF as aid, hence I am including that as aid.
So, here is detail of aids to Pakistan from USA since 1999 plus ~8 billion dollars from IMF in 2009.
Re: Pakistan average economic growth under different head of states:
Mushraf ruled up to 24 March of 2008 before he ran away from the country. When is the year end considered? If it is June 2007, then again you are lying.
The figures you are quoting are not correct and I already told you in other thread with the link the aid received was entirely different what you are telling here. In the same table you have provided a disclaimer is also written.
Get a life man. Link any official Pakistani web site what you are telling here to confirm. These are all cooked up numbers by you to prove dictatorship is better than democracy.
Re: Pakistan average economic growth under different head of states:
Sa1eem sahib, all I asked was to include the aid amount as column to make it easier to read. You can include different type of AID or AIDs ( ) to that. It will also be good if you can relate GDP to amount of AID (loans softened/deferred).
Are we crying again over spilt milk?
Does it matter now who was lesser evil?
Every single one lied to the people of Pakistan.
This is the country where elected representatives with mandate rape constitution 10 times in a day and couple of times in their sleep and live free to see the next sunrise but when a boot temple constitution with approval from of highest court of time it becomes matter of life and death for watan farosh parties to punish the lesser evil.
Re: Pakistan average economic growth under different head of states:
You asked two questions
1: Why 2008 aid figure is very little to do with Musharraf period.
2: Is the figures given by FAS actual figure of disbursed amount and verification from Pakistani sources that figures are accurate.
I will try to clear both issues you have (though, there is no cure for those who intentionally like to live in lies and ignorance).
1: Why 2008 aid figure is very little to do with Musharraf. …: Aid gets approved by donor countries in their financial year (not financial year of receiving country). Since aid in discussion is American aids that America approves, one cannot use Pakistani financial year for those aids, one have to take American financial year.
Even though Pakistan financial year starts from 1[SUP]st[/SUP] July and ends on 30th June … American financial year starts from 1 Oct and ends 30 Sept. That means:
USA aid for year 2007 get approved in American budget for financial year 2007 (‘1 Oct 2006 to 30 Sept 2007’).
USA aid for year 2008 get approved in American budget for financial year 2008 (‘1 Oct 2007 to 30 Sept 2008’).
Pakistan cannot get aid approved in American FY 2008 (‘1 Oct 2007 to 30 Sept 2008’) before that date, but Pakistan can get aid approved for American FY 2007 in 2008, as approval and disbursement may take time.
Musharraf was out of power after election in Feb 2008 and PPP (Zardari) government started. So, aids that got approved in America for FY year 2008 can not be added to Musharraf account?
**[Since Musharraf period comes less than PPP period when receiving aid approved in American FY 2008, I included it in Zardari period. It is just like Pakistan economical performance, though started deteriorating in big way after Feb 2008 election, I included FY 2007-08 growth result when evaluating Musharraf period]. **
[Anyhow, most economic aids related to budget support for Pakistan (receiving country) approved in USA (in their financial year) gets to Pakistan in Pakistani financial year that starts after USA financial year starts (that means USA aid approved in 2008 for Pakistan budget support would come to Pakistan after July 2008). And that is understandable, as USA cannot make an aid related to budget support of receiving country part of their budget before their FY starts, and cannot give to receiving country before FY of receiving country starts].
2: Is the figures given by FAS actual figure of disbursed amount and verification from Pakistani sources that figures are accurate. …: So question arises about aid figures … and you want Pakistani source as confirmation, so here it is (from Jang newspaper … The News):
Article says: US started war against terror after 9/11 horrific incidents that again reminded US of Pakistan, the embargo was lifted and the flow of economic and military assistance continued uninterrupted, which saw Pakistan receiving over $25 billion during 2002-2012 constituting of $17 billion in military aid and $8 billion in economic assistance. … [Receiving over does not mean … not receiving. :)]
^^^ How much aid is mentioned in Pakistani source above that Pakistan received during Musharraf and Zardari period up to 2012?
Economic aid = $8 bn
Military aid = $17 bn
Total = $25 bn
$1.5 bn out of that 10.097 bn was used to cancel past debt (hence Pakistan did not receive any cash). These $1.5 bn was aid that was allocated for Pakistan in 2003 and 2004 as ESF (Economic support fund).
[From explanation given at FAS site: c. Congress authorized Pakistan to use the FY2003 and FY2004 ESF allocations to cancel a total of $1.5 billion in debt to the U.S. government.]
That means … during Musharraf period what Pakistan got from USA was:
Military aid (Security related aid) = $1.691 bn
Economic related aid (cash) = $2.728 bn - $1.5 bn (used directly to retire past debt) = $1.228 bn
So, total cash money Musharraf government received in aid (military and economic) = $2.919 bn
Musharraf government also billed USA and received (CSF) = $5.678 bn
CSF is aid as far as USA is concerned, but for Pakistan it is not. CSF in Dawn article is part of military aid (as this money comes to Pakistan for military purpose).
Anyhow, Aid plus CSF Pakistan received during Musharraf period:
Military aid = $1.691 bn
Economic aid = $1.228 bn
Debt cleared = $1.5 bn
CSF = $5.678 bn
Total = $10.097 bn
(If one excludes aid used for debt clearance than figure is $8.5 bn including CSF)
2008-2012(Zardari period) … with yearly breakdown:
Military aid breakdown:
2008 = $0.517 bn
2009 = $0.989 bn
2010 = $1.236 bn
2011 = $1.277 bn
2012 = $0.849 bn
Total = $4.868 bn
Military aid = $4.868 bn
Economic aid = $5.895 bn
CSF = $5.009 bn
Total = $15.772 bn
Let verify what Jang (The News) says, and if figures given by FAS agrees with Jang (The News) figures:
Total aid Pakistan received from 2002 to 2012 From FAS site:
Economic Aid:
Musharraf = $2.728 bn
Zardari (PPP until 2012) = $5.895 bn
Total = $8.623 bn (Jang newspaper rounded the figure down to** $8 bn**)
Military aid (including CSF):
Musharraf = $7.369 bn
Zardari (PPP until 2012) = $9.877 bn
Total = $17.246 bn (Jang newspaper rounded the figure down to $17 bn)
Total aid Pakistan received from USA:
Musharraf = $10.097 bn
Zardari (PPP until 2012) = $15.772 bn
Total = $25.869 bn (Jang newspaper rounded the figure down to $25 bn)
So one can see that figures given by FAS and figures given by Jang newspaper agrees too.
**Pakistan received $68 billion in US assistance during 66 years **
October 23, 2013 - Updated 1011 PKT
From Web Edition
KARACHI: Pakistan and the US have had a volatile relationship during the last sixty-six years, which saw the flow of US assistance periodically interrupted, yet US during the last 64 years (1948-2012) provided $68 billion in aid and assistance to Pakistan, which included $42 billion in economic aid, while the remaining $26 billion in military assistance.
Pakistan for the fist time in 1948 received a sum of $0.77 million in economic aid in tandem with the request to allow using Pakistan airbase for conducting intelligence in the Soviet Union, but the then prime minister Shaheed Liaquat Ali Khan refused to oblige them and, thereby, the US remained annoyed for some time.
Following the martyrdom of Liaquat Ali Khan in 1951, the US aid was resumed and by 1964 it increased to such an extent that Pakistan received as much as about $2.5 billion in economic and military aid.
This was an era of the military dictator General Ayub Khan, when Pakistan had given military airbase to the US for surveillance of the Soviet Union, but after 1965 war with India, the US assistance started dwindling and until 1971 i.e. at the time of fall of Dhaka it was reduced to such an extent that it amounted to $470 million only.
Later, US on the pretext of Pakistan’s nuclear programme had imposed a ban and by enacting a law in 1979 the door for the US aid to Pakistan was almost shutdown. But in December 1979 the situation once again took a turn in favour of Pakistan, when the Soviet Union had invaded Afghanistan and US badly needed Pakistan’s strategic support.
In this backdrop, US economic and military assistance to Pakistan again started in 1982 and during 1983-88 US aid to Pakistan surged to $1 billion annually. But with this increased flow of dollars, heroin and Kalashnikov cultures also took the roots in Pakistan.
Following Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, US also lost interest in the region and once again an economic embargo was imposed on Pakistan under Pressler Amendment in 1990.
US started war against terror after 9/11 horrific incidents that again reminded US of Pakistan, the embargo was lifted and the flow of economic and military assistance continued uninterrupted, which saw Pakistan receiving over $25 billion during 2002-2012 constituting of $17 billion in military aid and $8 billion in economic assistance.
In spite of this, if the total loss of Pakistan in war on terror is estimated, then Pakistan as an US ally ended up losing a whopping amount of $100 billion i.e. Pakistan lost much more than what it got during the last 66 years.
Re: Pakistan average economic growth under different head of states:
Brother, here is what you want:
[TABLE]
In power
Period
Military related
Economic related
Coalition Support fund
(CSF)
Total
Musharraf
(Military)
1 Oct 2001 to
30 Sept 2007
(6 years)
$1.691 bn
$2.728 bn
$5.678 bn
$10.097 bn
Zardari
(PPP)
1 Oct 2007 to
30 Sept 2012
(5 years)
$4.868 bn
$5.895 bn
$5.009 bn
$15.772 bn
Total American money
1 Oct 2001 to
30 Sept 2012
(11 years)
$6.559 bn
$8.623 bn
$10.687 bn
$25.869 bn
Out of above figure, you can reduce $1.5 billion, that USA did not give to Pakistan as cash in 2003 and 2004, but used that to retire Pakistan debt … that means, Pakistan only got 1.228 billion as economic aid between 1 Oct 2001 to 30 Sept 2007.
Re: Pakistan average economic growth under different head of states:
Though you are telling the truth here quoting exaggeration and wrong figures. I would like you to go through the graph as it can not be copied here. Read this article aor apana sar pito.
Sixty years of US aid to Pakistan: Get the data
As the US announces it is to withhold military aid to Pakistan, find out how much money America has given to the country since 1948
The Obama administration has announced it will withhold more than one-third of all military assistance to Pakistan - an aid envelope worth some $800m (£498m). The withheld aid includes funding for military equipment and reimbursements for selected Pakistani security expenditures - including a payment of $300m for counterinsurgency programmes.
US aid to Pakistan has a long political history and this is not the first time money has been withheld. Here we’ve pulled out all the figures for both US military aid and economic assistance (including development assistance) to Pakistan between 1948 and 2010.
The dataset comes from Wren Elhai, at the Washington-based Center for Global Development (CGD), who in May published a report along with Nancy Birdsall and Molly Kinder analysing the long-term impact of US aid to Pakistan. The numbers - which come from the US Overseas Grants and Loans database and the Congressional Research Service - have been adjusted for inflation and are presented in terms of the value of the US$ in 2009.
US assistance to Pakistan 1948-2010 (millions,constant 2009 $US)Econo…Econo…MilitaryAssista…CoalitionSupportFunds194819541960196619721978198419901996200220080.00700.001,400.002,100.002,800.00Fiscal year
US aid to Pakistan, 1948-2010
Some highlights:
• US economic assistance to Pakistan peaked in 1962, at over $2.3bn
• in 2010, military assistance to Pakistan totalled $2.5bn - including $1.2bn in coalition support funds
• US assistance to Pakistan reached its lowest level in the 1990s, after President George H.W. Bush suspended aid flows over Pakistan's emerging nuclear programme
• US military assistance dropped dramatically during and immediately after the Indo-Pakistani wars of 1965 and 1971
**• in the 1970s, President Carter suspended all aid to Pakistan (except food aid) in response to Pakistan's decision to construct a uranium enrichment facility
(That was Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto non else, the only leader, Pakistan ever produced.) **
• although US assistance (both economic and military) to Pakistan has fluctuated considerably over the last 60 years, it has risen steadily since 2001
Pakistan has historically been among the top recipients of US aid - since 1948, the US has sent more than £30bn in direct aid to the country. Nearly half of this has been for military assistance. However, since Osama bin Laden was discovered and killed in Abbottabad earlier this year, US president Barack Obama has come under increasing pressure to justify US aid spending in the country.
Although military assistance is currently the only form of US aid to Pakistan to be withheld, Congress has considered other - as yet unsuccessful - bills to also block US economic assistance, and civilian aid to Pakistan will no doubt be up for debate again next year, as the 2012 budget battles get underway.
What can you do with the data?
Data summary
Summary of US aid to Pakistan 1948-2010
Note: All figures are in US$ (millions). Figures are adjusted for inflation and presented in 2009 constant dollars
Source: Wren Elhai, Center for Global Development, 2011
I have calculated the aid given during last 60 years to Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, ZAB, Zia, Mush and Zardari. See how much dictators got and how much civilian got the aid. These figures are published in Guardian news paper and does not say any disclaimer about the correctness of figures, like yours which are not correct.
Zia-ul-Haq 1978-88 214.92 55.49 1.52
128.81 23.31 1.2
137.53 0 0
164.16 0 0
400.6 200.07 1.2
534.18 383.29 499.77
568.05 415.84 555.9
607.26 447.53 583.53
623.56 460.91 545.82
599.07 469.53 534.54
769.14 635 430.69
Grand Total 4747.28 3090.97 3154.17 10992.42 $11 Billions
Billions of dollars were extra invested in Operation Cyclone by CIA in Afghan - Sovient Union war
Sole reciever was Zia-ul-Haq and his hawaris.
Re: Pakistan average economic growth under different head of states:
^^^
I cannot see anything wrong with the data you quoted from Guardian newspaper. Only problem is in your understanding the data given and your claims. You quoted the figures, gave your analysis and calculations, but you completely misunderstood the data.
Year
Economic Assistance, Total
Economic Assistance
(through USAID)
Military Assistance, Total
Coalition Support Funds
AAAA
X
X1
Y
Y1
It means … in year AAAA:
USA gave total economic assistance = X
… Out of that (X), X1 was given through USAID
USA gave total military assistance = Y
… Out of that (Y), YI was given as Coalition Support Funds.
It seems you are thinking that in year AAAA, USA gave aid = X + X1 +Y + Y1 … or … X + Y + Y1
Correct your mistake and you will get right figures (double counting in accounting is big big sin).
Plus, when article says that all figures are in 2009 US dollar, commenting on the figures given, you should have known what it means and effects on the data figures. Because, effect would be that any figure before 2009 would be higher than actual amount given and figures after 2009 would be lower than actual amount given. Even though the difference would not be big when looking at figures immediately before or after 2009, effect would be quite large when looking at 1960 dollars after converting to 2009 dollars (anyhow data after conversion is fair data, but can get manipulated).
In 2009, the relative value of $100.00 from **1960 **ranges from $571.00 to $2,650.00.
A simplePurchasing Power Calculator would say the relative value is $724.00. This answer is obtained by multiplying $100 by the percentage increase in the CPI from 1960 to 2009.
Now you can see that $100 given to Pakistan as Aid in 1960, depending on what one links it with, could be worth $571 to $2650. True figure would be $720.40 (that is the effect of inflation). Here I am not doubting Guardian figures, but just letting you know what can happen.
[Actually, there is story about CSF (from what I learned). What happened is that, when Pakistan joined ‘war on terror’ America wanted to give aid as military assistance to cover Pakistani cost of war (What America do with all countries, and did during Zia). Musharraf declined to take expenses due to ‘war on terror’ as military aid … as it would have been American charity and the amount under American control … but billing America as expenses would have been Pakistan’s rightful claim and amount would have depended on what Pakistan bills.
It was annoying for America as they never paid any country for services (other than through aid), and that is what they wanted with Pakistan, free assistance, but cover that assistance in the form of military aid (obliging Pakistan from aid). I think that USA even assured that if Pakistan went for military aid rather CSF payment, then America would have given more. Anyhow, Musharraf did not agree and told USA that Pakistan would bill ‘USA coalition’ the cost, rather take aid.
In the end, America agreed, and even though in their book they consider CSF as military aid, Pakistan considers CSF as payment. After that, USA started using term CSF for payment to other countries they get help in Afghan war, too. Anyhow, world journalists and also many Pakistani journalists try to portray CSF as military assistance.]
Re: Pakistan average economic growth under different head of states:
The graph you posted is Pakistan current (market price) dollar GDP over years. Market price GDP do not get effected due to re-base of the economy, as it is in current currency value (current rupees). Economic growths are not calculated using market price GDP value but using constant (fixed price) GDP value. In economic terms, percentage increase in GDP is percentage increase in purchasing power of economy. Increase in GDP due to inflation does not increase purchasing power of economy.
Constant GDP = Current GDP – inflation.
Dollar GDP depends on exchange rate: We all know that many factors plays role to determine exchange rate. Dollar GDP is no guide to measure economy. Occasionally countries with weak economy artificially keep their country’s exchange rate strong by having fixed exchange rate and control over foreign exchange movements (in and out of country). Leaving exchange rate to market whim can crash currencies of weak economy badly (as happening today in Pakistan).
For instance, before Bhutto took power, Pakistan-dollar exchange rate was fixed (government control) with bonus voucher scheme to reward incoming dollars. Bhutto had fixed exchange rate too, though initially Bhutto devalued rupee to Rs 11.00 per dollar, then when dollar had big devaluation in international market, Bhutto re-valued rupees by 10 percentage points to Rs 9.91 per dollar. Zia floated the exchange rate, though it was managed-float (market plus government). Musharraf made exchange rate completely floated (value determined by market).
[Even though Pakistan posted highest rate of dollar GDP growth during Musharraf period, I do not want to misguide anyone, so I wrote facts and also used real GDP to calculate GDP growth in my first post]
Anyhow, dollar GDP is a measure that people use when comparing countries GDP with each other, as exchange rate takes into account more than just internal economy of the country. Good management, Economic growth, FDI, Exports, Balance of payment, Remittances, Aids, Grants, and other incoming foreign exchange, all effects exchange rate and thus GDP measured in dollars.
Graph you posted shows GDP in dollars using Cartesian coordinates. Graph is correct, though ideally these types of graph should be log-linear graph and not graph using Cartesian coordinates as it can mislead layman (though many use Cartesian coordinate probably due to their own lack of knowledge, considering that people have no idea of log-linear graph, or to mislead people).
Looking at graph you posted, data used for graph is given below (from PBS site). Value in graph is calculated value of GDP ($) in dollars. As help, I also calculated GDP in dollars and put down the results for selected years. If you want to, you can look at graph and my calculated GDP ($) figures, and you will find them agreeing with each other. You can also calculate other figures and confirm that on the graph.
Pakistan GDP ($) for selected years:
[TABLE]
End period of
the Person
In power
Financial
Year
Average
Ex-Rate
(Per $)
GDP
(Market Price)
GDP ($)
Col 7 / Col 3
Percentage increase per year b/w dates
Pakistan Per Capita Income ($) for selected years:
[TABLE]
End period of the
Person in power
Financial
Year
Per Capita
Income ($)
Percentage increase per
Year b/w dates
Column 1
Column 4
(Percentage pts)
1960-61
$ 91
Ayub
(last 8 yrs)
1968-69
$ 152
6.6
Yahya
1970-71
$ 175
7.3
Bhutto
1976-77
$ 213
3.3
Zia
1987-88
$ 395
5.8
Thugs
1998-99
$ 468
1.6
Musharraf
2007-08
$ 1038
9.3
Zardari
(first 4 yrs)
2011-12
$ 1371
7.2
Note:
Start period of person in power is end period of person in power before him.
Ayub period should start from 1957-58 (after July 1958)
Zardari period ends 2013-14 (just before end of June 2014)
For verification, I am giving you site from where you posted the graph.
Run the cursor on the graph (same graph that you posted) and check GDP for different years. You will see that figures ~ matches with figures I calculated from PBS data.
[TABLE=“width: 694”]
Person
In power
Financial
Year
Year
(in graph)
GDP ($)
From graph
GDP ($)
(calculated
From data)
Ave growth
using graph
Ave growth
using data
(as above)
) to that. It will also be good if you can relate GDP to amount of AID (loans softened/deferred).