Re: NRO likely to be struck down by courts.
Why I support President Musharraf as leader for Pakistan:
I think that if anyone is supporting President Musharraf so that he keeps or keeping tested corrupt leaders out, than that person is misguided. If anyone thinks that people support President because of that, than that is completely wrong assumption.
President Musharraf has no right to keep them out neither he ever said that in meaningful way. Deal with NS was for 10 years, not for life … so it is obvious that President did not wanted him to be out of Pakistan forever. As for BB, government party is saying in clear words that she has gone out of country on her own free will and can come back anytime whenever she wants.
So, why many (that includes me) support President? Well, let me give an example for understanding.
You have a business that has a manager (Pakistan is business and manager at moment is President Musharraf)
Now, your manager can be of 4 types.
A: A very competent and honest manager.
Result: Business performance is good.
B: A very competent but dishonest manager.
Result: Business performance is good, but not as good as it should
C: An incompetent but honest manager.
Result: Business performance is bad.
D: An incompetent and dishonest manager.
Result: Business performance is near bankruptcy.
Ideal for the business would be to have type A as manager. Next best for the business would be type B as manager. Type C and Type D would be disaster for the business.
President Musharraf is type ‘A’ manager for Pakistan.
Nawaz and Benazir were type ‘D’ managers.
Present Musharraf team is type ‘B’ whereas Nawaz and BB team were type ‘D’.
Thus, that is the reason for people (like me) to support President Musharraf. There is nothing personal in his support nor there is hero-worshiping. It is simple performance and logical conclusions.
Now regarding NRO:
Let me give the answers in detail, though I don’t believe that all will understand or accept my answer (many die-heart supporters of BeNazir and Nawaz would reject my answer completely :)), but still … I will try.
If past corrupt ever come to power again, what you think? Do you think that NRO will bring those corrupts into power or votes of public? (Obviously, it would be vote of public). Musharraf could die tomorrow and then what? If image and party of these past corrupt leaders stay intact than they would come back into power again to loot and plunder. Zia stopped PPP from coming into power, but when Zia died, PPP was there in power again. So, keeping a party out of power does not mean that party would die out. These cases could have only kept BB and NS out of Pakistan as long Musharraf is in power, but what about after that?
So, most important thing to do is to expose these corrupt leaders to public, so that public come out of their personality spell. I think that NRO was a good step of exposing BB. Just imagine, what PPP got from deal with present government?
President declined almost all of Benazir these demands:
Benazir wanted that Presidential election should be left to next assembly, and if not, than at least President shed the uniform before Presidential election.
Benazir wanted that constitution should get changed so that bar on third time Prime Minister is removed. (At present, PPPP along with government parties can change the constitution).
Benazir wanted dissolving of assembly power (52-B) in the hand of President to finish.
Benazir wanted National Security council to finish.
Benazir wanted that Local council should get demolished before coming election.
Benazir wanted consensus on interim government that would administer election, where PPPP should have major say on interim Prime Minister, and who should administer the election.
Blah, blah and blah.
But Benazir main secret demand that she did not wanted to get exposed is that, all her corruption cases get washed out.
President only accepted Benazir this demand
Now it is open secret that major obstacle with BB since last 5 years was that, Musharraf did not wanted to drop corruption charges on her (that was initiated by NS and Laghari). In 2002 Musharraf offered Prime Minister post to PPP (Amin Fahim) but Benazir did not agreed because she wanted all corruption charges to get dropped.
Anyhow, to get her exposed to masses this type of NRO was needed, where none of her political or any other demands were met except one; that is drop of cases. But then, that demand of dropping cases is not easy as that can be challenged in courts, plus it all depends on her bringing enough seats in coming election (that I don’t think she could, especially after getting exposed with her deal for NRO).
Note: NRO fulfils two good aspects for government.
First aspect of NRO is that, I believe government is riding on big popularity amongst masses (at least they believe) and do not want any excuse from corrupt losers (BB and NS) after election. If all take part in election under conciliation (where BB and NS take part from within Pakistan) and lose than it would be a big victory for government. It would politically going to strengthen government further in future.
Second aspect is political mileage. Just try to think. Government did not include their period in NRO. They could have easily made deal that period of NRO should be from 1986 to Oct 2007 (that means, no chance of any corruption cases on them that may have happened during the time 1999-2007 will get washed out because of NRO). Thus in front of public, government and their allies came out clean from NRO showing that they were not corrupt, hence did not bothered to include their period. But NRO exposed past corrupts and their parties as corrupts. All insane person would today going to ask that why BB went for NRO when today judiciary is independent, and thus she should ask judiciary to get through her cases.
I believe that NRO and other government behaviours with PPP, buried PPP as party, at least buried Bhutto family in future politics. Something that Zia tried for 11 years and could not do, President Musharraf did it shrewdly. President Musharraf showed his political insight, and hoodwinked Benazir politically to do one of her biggest blunder. It seems that President played with Benazir sentiments and greed, in politically most mature and shrewd way.
Now, it is up to court and future assembly to accept or reject NRO (as at present it is just an ordinance that has I believe 3 months expiry time), but nevertheless what ever the result, conditions of NRO is a check-mate political move by Musharraf. He gave Benazir nothing but made her accept that she is scared and not willing to face court on corruption charges (because she is corrupt).
Even after that, if people vote for Benazir, it is not fault of President but fault of people. It would be similar, that President suspended corrupt CJ but people went behind corrupt CJ, and today a corrupt person is CJ of Pakistan.
Similarly he exposed NS when situation became such that NS admitted in public that he did made a deal to get away from Pakistani prison. Though he said that he did not made deal with Musharraf, but that also shows to masses that NS is liar and believes that people are idiots. People know very well that he left Pakistan after doing deal with Musharraf, even if they keep quite. It is because, if NS did not made deal with Musharraf, how he left Pakistani prison?
He could not have left Pakistani prison by making deal with Saudi Arabia, and people must have realised that, as NS was not in Saudi prison to get out of it by making deal with Saudi Arabian government. If people did not understand that, Pakistan government kept repeating that too, so that people should understand, and thus understand that NS is liar. Now it is up to people that if they would vote for him or not. When he came to Pakistan, people showed their support for him, that is NIL.
** As for President gaining anything from NRO deal, that is absurd assumption too**. President did not needed PPP votes to win the election (and Chaudhari brothers were continuously reminding people even before deal). Musharraf already had enough support in assembly to win the election. Situation is as under:
Senate: 100 seats: Pro-government 54
NA: 342 pro-government 201
Senate and NA: 442 seats. Pro-government 255.
Musharraf got 252 votes = 57 percent of total votes
Sindh: 168 seats: Pro-government 100.
Musharraf got 102 votes = 61 percent of total votes
Balochistan: 65 seats: PML (Q) 28, JWP 4
Musharraf got 33 votes = 51 percent of total votes
Punjab: 371 seats: Pro-Mush 271
Musharraf got 253 votes = 68 percent of total votes
NWFP: 124 seats: PPP (Sherpao) 13, PML(Q) 10
Musharraf got 31 votes = 26 percent of total votes.
**Overall: **1170 votes
Musharraf got 671 votes = 57.35 percent of total votes.
Overall effective votes for Presidential election: 702 (as each provincial assembly effective votes are 65)
Musharraf got around 386 votes = 55 percent of total votes.
Wajeeh-uddin total effective votes = less than 4 votes.
Musharraf needed more than 4 effective votes to win the election, he got 386 votes. Well, even if all votes that Musharraf did not receive becomes vote for his opposition, than also it would be 316 effective votes against President 386 votes.
So, what deal president needed to win the election? Only thing that PP could have done was resign :)
But if they had resigned, government would have imposed emergency, had by-election, won more seats and then Musharraf would have won Presidential election with more votes. Most likely in such situation, Pro-Musharraf parties may have got over 2/3 majority and could have even changed the constitution to give President another 5 years Presidency with uniform (I think that is what probably Chaudhri brothers wanted to do).
So, all this talk that NRO was done by President to save his seats is bull-sh*t. Perception was created so that Benazir get dragged into making deal that could end her political career (though time would tell).
If President Musharraf was worried about his election and needed deal with Benazir than President would have agreed on some of above political demands of Benazir too.