NA 151 — The Last Debacle

[hanibal]

Re: NA 151 — The Last Debacle

@yazdi

I can understand some posters who have not been to Punjab in last several years making this kind of analysis.. but I am really surprised at your comments. Please consider following points before you give your expert opinion:

1. This was no ordinary constituency. Out of 120 billion spent by ex PM Gillani in Multan district.. 20 billion were spent directly in this constituency. More than 4,000 people were sent on government expenditure on Umra-foreign trips from this constituency in last 4 years. Thousands of government jobs were given in this constituency. If after all this attention in this single constituency the gap has narrowed from 32,000 to 4,000, you can well imagine the situation of PPP in the rest of Punjab.

2. You know very well that bye-elctions are always won by ruling party. Even PMLQ won all the bye-elections prior to 2008 general elections. People know very well that they can not change the government in bye-election.. but when they will vote in the next election they will certainly consider if they want to have the same government for next 4 years.

3. In 90% of constituencies in Punjab.. PMLQ-PPP don’t exist as a party today. This is the ground reality… Next election in these constituencies is being fought directly between PTI and PMLN. I travel frequently on a semi rural road in Punjab which has 4 NA seats. During half an hour travel I see more than 100 each election offices for these two parties with thousands of banners and flags while there is not a single PPP or PMLQ election office or a banner. If you meet people who have already become active in electoral process.. there is a complete consensus that in most of the Punjab constituencies PPP doesn’t exist today as a party.

4. PPP tried to make Sariaki province an issue for next election to exploit the sentiments of Southern Punjab voters. The results of this constituency clearly shows that people consider corruption-mis governance-load shedding-inflation-economic down turn as major issues compared to Saraiki province.

This bye-election should be an eye opener for PPP who are expected to become nearly extinct in the province of Punjab.. not because the opposition has some great program for revival of the economy.. but because of their own pathetic performance. I just feel like laughing at the expert opinion of some the the non-punjab resident posters who are labeling this as a great victory for PPP..

.”

There are few things to be considered here…

2008 elections were held in PML-Q (read Mushy) vs All ( PML-N, PPP etc) so as a result, PML-Q was out of power, but stil they manage some good number of votes and seats in NA… does that tell any thing to us??

Because 2012-1013 elections are going to be held this way, PPP + PML-Q vs PML-N vs PTI vs JUI-F vs JI

where we all know that there are some 20-30 seats where PPP can win easily and there are some 10-20 seats where PML-Q have good prospects, if we include the above equation in the picture, then the alliance of PML-Q and PPP can win some 25- 30 additional seats in the closely contested constituencies of Punjab…

Situation in Sindh is not good for PPP either, but if Bilawal Bhutto is brought forward in the elections, then no matter what NS do over there, he will not manage to win more than 10-15 seats…

The dynamics of Balochistan is totally different, sardars only think about their pockets so who ever pays them more, they are going to be in that party… KPK is not that different but there are some chances for PML-N and PTI there but those chances look slim in three-way fight,

The FATA members always joins the party which forms govt, same is true for MQM…

and if you add the number of Lotas and turncoats in it, PPP have 50% chance to form next govt, unless and otherwise some drastic shift in Politics happens, that in PML-Q leaves PPP and try to contest elections on their own or in alliance with PML-N..