yazdi
May 7, 2013, 10:59am
57
Re: My Election prediction
The biggest factor is the unknown nature of PTIs vote. PTI has had a classic management style, with a complete registry of members, who Im sure will all vote for PTI. This registry is not available to the media, hence, they dont care to factor in these votes in their assessments, which is fine. Just as an example, a number cited by PTI media cell, which I have no reason to disbelieve, is that the total number of ‘registered’ PTI members of voting age in Quetta is several times the number of votes needed to win 259, where Qasim Ali Suri is running. PTI has a strong chance on 259 and 260, and this is based on documented voter lists.
Media is still running analyses based on prior elections, and prior voting lists. Noone makes much of an effort to factor in the enormous number of new voters, and PTIs aggressive on the ground campaign.
May be you are right.. I hope you are right. I have no way of knowing the ground realities in Quetta. I hope PTI can increase significantly their tally from 50 seats..