My Election prediction

[yazdi]

Re: My Election prediction

@EyEsOnSkY

Thanks Yazdi!

What I’m seeing as per Punjab situation 20 to PTI 20 indpendrlent 15 Plmq 20 PPP and 60 to PMNL, that so called Matka group will effect the results which contain around 30 seats! As observers watching them as Est.strategy to make presure on other major parties before and after elections! What you think about it? Any idea coz it’s seems that group collect the seats between 20 to 25! And there must be other independent candidate also.
SINDH hhhm I’m not seeing any seat for Pmln ( may be 1 ) not either PTI exsist there. PPP and MQM in rural and urban grab almost of it. The result of KPK in this elections might be change but likely to same as Punjab as ANP and Fazlu on top compare to other big parties. Let see! What come out

Punjab:
There are going to be maximum 10 independents from Punjab. PPP is expected to win 10 from South Punjab from where they won 25 last time. in the rest of Punjab they will a maximum of five.. even on those seats there is going to be tough competition.. Firdous Awan and Kaira are not 100% sure about retaining their seats. Ahmad Mukhtar is losing against Pervaiz Elahi.. Not even one expert is giving 20 seats to PPP from Punjab. Similarly PMLQ can win a maximum of 5/6 seats. Let’s say 15 PPP, 5 PMLQ, and 10 independents. These are 30 seats. The rest of 118 seats will be predominantly shared between PTI and PMLN.

Yesterday in Kamran Khan show Iftikhar and Warriach said 80 seats are already confirm win for PMLN.. and 20 for PTI. These do not include swing seats. The mean the tally of both these parties will go higher than that.

Sind: PMLN is strong on Malir seat from Karachi. PTI has a remote chance on Alvi seat (NA250).. May be PMLN can pull through Liaqat Jatoi seat as well. Two seats will be won by NPP. There are 5/6 independents and 6/7 PMLF. MQM and PPP are going to lose some seats in Sind. Last time PPP had 32.. this time they can have a maximum of 27.. the more likely figure is 25. Although in Kamran Khan show they were predicting 32 seats again for PPP.

Baluchistan: There are 3 confirm seats for PMLN in Baluchistan. PTI does not have a chance there. PPP is not expected to win any seat from Bauchistan.

KPK: Traditionally KPK has always been the most unpredictable province as far as election results are concerned. Never in the history of KPK they had same results in two elections. Every election in KPK is unique. Apart from Punjab.. KPK with 35 seats is also a major battle ground. It is expected that ANP and JUIF are going to lose a lot of their seats this time. PMLN and PTI are going to gain in KPK. JI who boycotted the last election are also going to win some seats there.

There is an excellent unbiased seat by seat analysis on pkpolitics. There are many seats where one candidate has 100 points and the other has 95. These are basically swing seats. Although this web site is predominantly PMLN.. but I spoke to some PTI insiders who are giving a lot of importance to this analysis which looks every close to the ground situation as today.

http://pkpolitics.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/files/2013/05/PKP-Election2013-Predictions-v4.pdf

P.S.
Although this is the most comprehensive election result prediction I have seen so far.. I expect PTI to win 10-15 extra seats from Punjab.. while PMLN tally will reduce from 97. PPP tally could also reduce if the lose some seats like Samina Ghurki, Kaira, and Awan.. the major gainer will be PTI who in my opinion will do much better than 27 seats in Punjab..