In my opinion, result of most seats in Punjab and rural Sindh would depend on candidates own hold in constituencies (Vaderas, Sardars, Zamindars), rather than on performance of party or election campaigns. It means, party that would chose most electable candidates would win.
In past electable candidates used to switch sides expecting that ‘party X’ or ‘party Y’ would form government (due to establishment interference … and thus expectation that party gone out would stay out and party that was in opposition would win).
Present election has no such restraints, and thus, most candidates would choose party they like as best. Obviously, in such situation, the party that candidate believes take care of their elected members best would get best candidates and in this respect PPP is the best.
[Zardari believes on khao aur khanay dou … whereas Nawaz believes on Khao aur khatay raho per kisi aur ko atna mauga na dou … Shareef brothers like to own whole of Pakistan un-shared]
Thus, in rural areas of Punjab and Sindh, PPP would still rule. It is possible that PMLQ and PMLF would make some inroads in PPP constitutional holds, else things would change little.
On other hand, PMLN would lose substantial ground to PTI (as voters of both parties belong to similar thought groups).
Punjab: Apart of electable seats that electable would win regardless of which party platform they would contest …
In last election (2008) PMLQ got most votes (though less seats) and that was around 5.5 million votes. PMLN got second highest number of votes (though most seats) and that was around 5.3 million votes. PPP got third highest number of votes (similar to PMLQ and PMLN) and that was around 5 million votes.
So, there is little to choose between vote banks of these three parties in Punjab. Anyhow, in 2013 election PPP and PMLQ have joined hands so there combined vote banks would make lot of difference (in last election it was ~ 10.5 million votes). PTI might attract some of PPP + PMLQ votes but most they would attract is of PMLN votes (actually in last election, PMLN votes was all not their own, but it was combined votes of PMLN, JI and PTI).
Thus, I would be surprised if PMLN would get more than 4 million votes from Punjab in 2013 election (compared to ~ 5.3 million votes in 2008 election). It means, PMLN losing many seats to other parties, especially to PTI.
KPK: Here voters are much more independent than voters of other provinces, and make their own choice, so upset is expected.
In KPK chances is that PMLN would lose ground. They had some hold in swat, but PMLN sold swat when they voted for KPK as name of province in constitutional amendment, so that Nawaz could get 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] chance as PM, and that would affect them adversely. Anyhow, PMLN might take 1 seat in KPK due to Ameer Muqam.
ANP and PPP would suffer due to lack of election campaign, bad performance of ANP government (that was in coalition with PPP), and bad media campaign maligning rule of ANP. That would give some increase in vote bank for PTI at expense of ANP. PTI is also expected to attract vote bank of PPP, PMLN, JUI, and PMLQ.
On the other hand, PMLQ may increase their seats in KPK due to their understanding with PPP and their past performance (pre 2008 election). PPP would lose seats due to their present performance as coalition partner with ANP and media propaganda against them.
Overall, unexpected changes could happen in KPK.
In Sindh many strong candidates have joined MQM plus MQM have made substantial inroads in interior Sindh, and thus there is chance that they might increase their seats from 19 to 21.
Due to horrendous performance of PPP, both PMLQ and PMLF could increase a seat or two each. All seats increases in Sindh would be at the expense of PPP.
**As for Baluchistan **Sardars would play vital role again and I believe PPP would again benefit from this situation, attracting electable Sardars. PMLQ had largest number of seats in Baluchistan after 2008 election, but over time they kept loosing those elected candidates to PPP. This time, PMLQ may not get that many seats what they got in 2008 election, but still they might increase their numbers from what they have today.
Islamabad: Federal area has 2 seats and I believe it is possible that both would go to PTI. Last time it was PMLN who got both seats.
FATA: Traditionally, candidates there get to NA as Independents, and that would stay same in this election.