Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

This is what I had predicted and it appears that the powers that be are headed in that direction..you have to read between the lines. The key sentence is highlighted.


*US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher is in Pakistan for talks ahead of elections due later this year.
Mr Boucher met senior election officials after earlier talks with Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri.

The visit comes after US officials said they believed President Musharraf would seek re-election from parliament after, not before, elections later this year.

In recent months Gen Musharraf has faced the most serious challenge to his rule since his 1999 coup.

Protests over his suspension of the country’s chief justice have snowballed into a pro-democracy movement by the opposition.

Headlines

BBC correspondents say much significance is being attached to Mr Boucher’s meeting with Pakistan’s chief election commissioner.

They say the purpose of the talks may be to discuss American reservations over efforts to make the elections free and fair.

Many observers have suggested that President Musharraf, a key US ally in the “war on terror”, wants to be re-elected by the current parliament, rather than a new one which may be more hostile towards him.

Comments by US state department spokesman Sean McCormack on the eve of Mr Boucher’s visit made headlines in Pakistan on Wednesday.

A central issue in Pakistan’s political crisis is Gen Musharraf’s dual role as president and head of the army.

As well as offering his thoughts on the possible timing of a presidential election, Mr McCormack said the US hoped that **if Gen Musharraf continues in political life, “he will put aside the uniform”. ***


key points

  1. if he continues in political life…basically casting doubt on whether he will continue in political life..period
  2. secondly an expectation is set that, if by chance he does, he is expected to put aside the uniform.

the only way he will stay in power for any length of time as a non uniformed president is based on how aligned he is with the top military brass and the new chief, and then what type of deal he has with the ruling party.

as far as ruling party goes, the stage is set for Benazir vs Nawaz showdown, all others will fall in BB or NS camp before or after elections. Most likely MMA and MQM would do it afterwards, ANP would most likely do it before hand, and PTI is already falling in step with Nawaz.

folks, be ready for change.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

What would be done this time? Disabling the jamming device in his Mercedes so a ‘true muslim’ will fulfill his heavenly mission.. :hehe:

I think up to date, Zia’s assassination seems to be most expensive. A whole C130 had to go down.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

I wonder what fate awaits the most loyal pet of the Bush Administration. Is he going to be put to sleep in a shelter or is he going to be mysteriously run over while chasing a bone?!
In any case, the worst part is who will replace him? Is Pakistan going to be a CIA controlled state for ever or will it be given a chance to have real Pakistani leadership?
Ya Allah have mercy on this nation and land !!
(ameen)

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

the fact the the three major players in future politics are in London right nwo should tell you how likely it is that Pakistan is going to have real pakistani leadership

The efforts BB and NS have placed in getting meetings with US officials shows that they know who is the boss, and they have ti please the boss.

so dont expect revolutionary change in Pakistan in terms of how it will be an ally.

musical chairs of pakistani politics between the same faces, military and mullah will continue. hopefully somewhere in there someone would make right policies to actually help the nation as well :)

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

i doubt it. the guy has nothing to lose personally from Pakistan becoming a borderline pariah state like it was before 9/11. he isnt going from the scene (and taking his uniform off will be pretty much that) voluntarily. relations might sour with US, but I doubt even that.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

I wonder why is US so concerned about elections and 'uniform'.

And Musharraf is really stupid if he thinks he can stay as President after "shedding" his uniform. Not even a single person will support him even from PML (Q).

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

US may feel it is easier to control a civilian than the military directly.

Musharraf should retire though. I think he did what he needed to do. i would like to see shaukat aziz continue to play a role in finance area. But for the country to just move forward, he needs to walk away. whatever happens after that is something that can be dealt with then, it will be a different set of challenges and we may be here debating that the new setup needs to change as well.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

Ravage, what u cant count in is that if he stays and if he stays in uniform and in power, how things are being handled with FATA and all will change drastically. That is the entire crux of this topi drama.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

US may think that it an control anyone in Pakistan and rightly so, but traditionally, US has been more close to GHQ than PM house. And with increasing influence of Pentagon in foreign policy specially in Pak/Afghan/Iran area, they would perhaps prefer to deal with a military man.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

but dealing with an unpopular military man may not be in their interest either, so if musharraf stays, there would also be some window dressing democracy, someone like BB would fill that role, and it may even become a point where the civilan govt is responsible for everything, but from a foriegn policy, especially the war on terror issue its the military that is still running the show. grievances such as inflation and unemployment and law and order etc etc would no longer be military headache. and it can be someone else from the military as well not just musharraf.

there are many possibilities, but as you know, this is not grassroots and this is not indigenous in any way.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

how so

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

basic reason of why US is not happy with Pakistan. the difference in opinion about Taleban, and how to control them.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

and if he stays in uniform and in power, how will things be handled differently?

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

a message has been sent pretty strongly that you drink the koolaid, and if you will not, we can do without you. basically letting the puppets know that not only are their other puppets but the master has one more string that the puppet did nto know about, so it should dance exactly as it is being told and not go explaining in US to US audience that US policy regarding taleban and pakhtoon is flawed and why.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

so your saying that CJ sahab's reference and all the political stuff is a strategy by the US to tell Pakistan to change its approach on Taleban?

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

President Musharaf is not going anywhere.

US may have asked him to remove his uniform (which they have been asking for the past four years), but they also know that asking for too many changes too quickly will cause chaos in Pakistan, which US cannot afford, especially with unfinished business with Iran and current crisis in Afghanistan and Iraq.

PPP et al, will make a deal with Musharaf/military.

US will indeed be able control BB or any other civilian leader better which are hungry to return to power, and know they cannot stay in power without US support.

Pakistan has become too important an ally for US. US has learnt its lessons from the past, and they will not let Pakistan hang itself.

The status quo (through President Musharaf/military) will remain, with some cosmetic changes such as a civilian face through power sharing - discussion about which are continuing.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

The only option for USA is to keep mush. in power. the alternatives are down right scary.

Musharaff might remove the uniform but he (IMHO) will stay in power. when he promoted his friends in the army and retired the PRO mullahs he lucked out and its time for the payback. he will stay in power and US will help him stay there.

Like it or not, he is the only one with balls to handle the extremists and to keep pakistan funded either by Saudi's or USA.

if pakistanis have so much hate for USA or its chamchay then start paying your taxes. Pak is a nuclear power now and its not a kids game any more, imagine if MMA or some other dumb A SS mullah comes to power and decides to support terrorists what will happen to Pakistan, US will have no option but to take out pakistan.

nationalism aside, pakistan can not stand in front of US army, china is only friend when it needs us. India and Iran will not help and then we can all have a debate about what the heck happened.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

part of it probably, not the reference itself, but the recation to the reference is definitely backed by political parties, and that has the blessings of US. If you plot the last 6 months or so of US statements, US/UK media stance, and the visits and statements of US officials, you will see a pattern emerge. While US may not be directly behind all the stuff, although the history of CIA involvement in regime chance is wellknown, the US has definitely given its blessing.

NS and BB both getting to London, bith securing meeting with US govt, statements by Cheney, and even the visit by W earlier is all linked in my view.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

yeah so US can rough him up a bit and gain more control.
if he does not fall in line and get the message he will be history
either like Zia, or like Bhutto.

Re: Musharraf will not be in office by this time next year.

If it plays out teh way you describe it, sure..but that would mean all parties would have to agree on this.

wouldn't you love to be a fly on the wall in the US brokered negotiations between Musharraf and BB?