Re: More Turmoil Ahead
One would find it very hard to say who will actually vote what but I am assuming PPP will get the most votes and then it will be a toss up between PML-Q and PML-N. The PPP have the best chances - they will get a large proportion of the sindhi vote, not sure what % of the muhajir vote they will get but anincrease could be likely esp with MQM proving their thuggery on May 12, they will definitely have increased support in nwfp - the mma mightsuffer serious losses in some areas, because of benazir's more reconciliatory approact to the baloch she may get some extra votes there.
the mqm would probably not expand their vote bank at all after may 12 and a decrease is more than likely. about time mqm started thinking in unison with sindhi wishes - it would do them a great favour rather than supporting pml-q and mush.
pml-q have obviously suffered because of musharaf and their credibility under-mined - mushy has startedporjects in ifferent areas but i doubt it would do anythingto restore his credibility now. pml-q will will be under pressure with pml-n on the heals. their is nochance they can win alone and their best bet is probably to form with ppp.
pml-n probably have no chances of winning alone but pose a huge threat to votebank of pml-q with nawaz back. they could lose their nationwide non-punjab votes to PPP.
MMA - wellthey will hold some areas butlose many too.
Who know what the outcome will be - theproblem with pakistan is that is is sxo unpredictable - there are many reasons and equal reaons to hate each and every party. for some this will be a time of revenge.
It really doesnt matter who wins.
Allow credible elections, I dont care who wins.
Allow a free media running in to elections, have a neutral electoral commision and an independant judiciary to mediate any outcome.
Until then the whole process is tainted and meaningless.