Re: MMA Resignation Dramas
If MMA resigns, it would be nice. They should do that sooner the better. Hope that they resign by end of this year and present government uses the opportunity to do proper but fair politics.
Government would hold by-election by end of March (Government by constitution need to hold by-election within 90 days). By-election would give more seats to the government (and their coalition partners) increasing already majority seats they are holding in Parliament.
After election, government should declare unusual circumstances and ask President to extend the Parliament time by a year (that they can do under the constitution). I am sure President would oblige. Thus, present assembly period would extend to October 2008 and next general election would happen in January 2009 (90 days after assembly time expires in October).
This would give Present government two years of complete control over the parliament. Government would also going to have control in senate (where government is in majority) and all four provinces (hoping MMA resigns from there too), giving Government good opportunity to do what they like, as they like.
It is possible (rather most likely) that this opportunity will even give the government two-third majority in Parliament needed to change constitution, and thus they would be able to change the constitution, as they would like, without any problem or opposition (that would be democratically legal too).
I am sure that MMA out of parliament, out of power anywhere in Pakistan, would deteriorate very fast, though they are already deteriorating.
It seem that MMA is in illusion that they would resign and then government would not go for by-election as new members would only going to be in Parliament for 6 months. Thus, they are expecting that their resignation would push the government to call for election.
Though that would be no problem as many in government wants that too. Government is expecting to win next election, because government (especially President Musharraf) feels they are much more popular and stronger then 2002 election, and even in that election, they eventually got the majority. Still, if government would like to have this parliament complete their term, a new thing in Pakistan, they have the option, as mentioned above.