After Pakistan’s superb performance against New Zealand, it’s now up to mathematical equations to help Pakistan qualify for the semis. Here’s what needs to happen if Pakistan is to have an outside chance of progressing:
England must beat SA. While they are at it, they should beat SA by a comfortable margin, which would bring down SA’s run rate and help Pakistan later.
Pakistan must beat SA. This is highly improbable, but if it does happen, then it’ll be a close game, and Pakistan’s run rate will improve only marginally. Hence the need for England to beat SA by a large margin.
England should beat NZ. The only problem with this is that the Eng-NZ game follows Pakistan-SA game. If Pak has already beaten SA, then England’s position is secure for the semis, so they may not have the incentive of going hard against NZ. If Eng-NZ game was BEFORE Pak-SA, then England’s position for the semis would not be guaranteed, and they’d make every effort to beat NZ.
At the end, England will have 6 points, and Pak, SA, and NZ will have 2 points each. It’ll come down to the run rate. Pakistan’s run rate is already better than NZ, so if # 1, 2 and 3 above happen, then NZ will be out of the race. It now comes down between SA and Pakistan. SA currently has a huge advantage over Pakistan due to their net run rate (NRR), so let’s hope England does its job and gives SA a sound thrashing.